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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #797,561
  • Dec 16, 2023 11:28am Dec 16, 2023 11:28am
Quoting Headland
{quote} Hi. You make some good points in your last 2 posts. I think the problem with prediction/forecasting is that a trader get his/her ego involved or at least emotionally involved in that prediction/forecast, particularly if he/she shares it, (by posting it here for eg.) This inevitably over any larger sample will likely lead to worse results than had he/she just accepted that, like the rest of us, they know nothing, and traded what they saw with no pre-conceived bias/opinion, accepting the inevitable uncertainty that comes with trading, and...
Every saturday and Sunday, I have a habit of analyzing what mistakes I did in the previous week and how/what needs to be done for the forethcoming week . In the last week, though I closed short trades in profit on thursday, it is not a day for shorting, Price rose upto 1.2800.

I was having short trades from 2760... the DD was almost close to 2 % when the price reached 1.2800.

By adding short trades, I came out of short trades successfully though.

Chart attached
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Intraday only.
  • #797,562
  • Edited Dec 17, 2023 5:40am Dec 16, 2023 2:11pm | Edited Dec 17, 2023 5:40am
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} A win rate is only what has happen not what's going to happen, however 100 trades/ 2 months is very short timespan in this game, in 2 years the markets will change how they form, so many variables to change, recessions, war, viruses , change of governments, not saying i'm right just never seen a system that stays profitable for any length of time, if you can prove me wrong please do ...hope you find what you are looking for...
Hi. Interesting points you make in that reply to Elysion. Since I started trading technically, on my own account, I have been profitable year-on-year for the last 19.5 years of 21 years basically using the same Edge. Yes, it has evolved/improved over time, but so has my competence in trading it and my general technical competence, to say nothing of my fundie/global macro (not wholly necessary for tech trading) read of the prevailing factors that may be @ play at any one time. So, per the discussion with Bones a few weeks ago about the 'human component' that is involved even in rule-based edges, perhaps this increase in my competence trading it has given rise, or at least aided, my long term profitability trading it?

Just as an example of this, My Edge gives repeating 'contra-immediate trend/price action' and 'trend entry (after pullbacks') chart set-ups, amongst others. In a strong trend for example I have become a lot better in choosing the greater probability zones/chart set-ups that may give rise to a tradable pullback or more, than I used to. Ie I reject a lot of the chart set-ups as 'false positives' and do not act upon them, choosing to stay in a 'trend trade' that I may already be in (in this example's chart [s] context) -or- stay flat - at least until the next set-up develops.

I think markets do change as you suggest, and for the reasons you suggest, but the key basic technicals haven't much (if at all) well at least for so long as I have been trading my edge anyways, ie Price action, Support & Resistance, Trend etc, and these continue to repeat and in the case of technical trading, these repeating patterns of market behavior as may be applicable to any given trading instrument, continue to manifest themselves in repeating hi-probability chart 'patterns.'

Re how big a sample is representative, well I think you have to have a big enough one , and long enough one (relative to duration -vs- the t/f [s] it develops on,} for it to be representative - whatever that is. There are various formulae and thoughts about this. As for the win rate, yeh of course, it is to that point in time, but if the patterns continue to repeat, then it should hold up, assuuming we keep on trading it correctly. If it doesn't somenthing has changed - Us or it!
Trader with an Edge.
  • #797,563
  • Dec 16, 2023 7:14pm Dec 16, 2023 7:14pm
Inserted Video
POSTMASTER
  • #797,564
  • Dec 16, 2023 10:00pm Dec 16, 2023 10:00pm
Quoting Headland
{quote} Hi. You make some good points in your last 2 posts. I think the problem with prediction/forecasting is that a trader get his/her ego involved or at least emotionally involved in that prediction/forecast, particularly if he/she shares it, (by posting it here for eg.) This inevitably over any larger sample will likely lead to worse results than had he/she just accepted that, like the rest of us, they know nothing, and traded what they saw with no pre-conceived bias/opinion, accepting the inevitable uncertainty that comes with trading, and...

A drop close to daily s1 is what I expect to see when NY opens.

A bounce from there is possible.

Drop to daily s1 is in line with my rules.

A bearish close on friday says that to me.

I may not trade when asia opens.. I have a function to attend to morrow when asia opens.

Will be there at my desk when NY opens.

I have now started integrating ADX in to my trading system for more clarity ( volume )
Intraday only.
  • #797,565
  • Dec 17, 2023 12:48am Dec 17, 2023 12:48am
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} A win rate is only what has happen not what's going to happen, however 100 trades/ 2 months is very short timespan in this game, in 2 years the markets will change how they form, so many variables to change, recessions, war, viruses , change of governments, not saying i'm right just never seen a system that stays profitable for any length of time, if you can prove me wrong please do ...hope you find what you are looking for...
I think any successful trader will adapt his/her system over time Wave. Imo, the basics don't change. A Quasimodo was a Quasimodo 20 years ago and looks the same today. Today I avoid the NZD and the Swissy. Go with the flow. Cheers
  • #797,566
  • Dec 17, 2023 1:56am Dec 17, 2023 1:56am
Quoting Headland
{quote} Hi. Interesting points you make in that reply to Elysion. Since I started trading technically, on my own account, I have been profitable year-on-year for the last 19.5 years of 21 years basically using the same Edge. Yes, it has evolved/improved over time, but so has my competence in trading it and my general technical competence, to say nothing of my fundie/global macro (not wholly necessary for tech trading) read of the prevailing factors that may be @ play at any one time. So, per the discussion with Bones a few weeks ago about the 'human...
Thanks for a great reply, as I've said before we all operate on our beliefs and values, I've never seen anyone post long term profits using a set and forget system, if there was such a thing why aren't we all using robots?, reason, they don't work, ...and we all know that it's impossible as if everyone had the same system the markets would not work, we need winners and losers, my belief still we have to keep changing, tweeking and adapting the way we trade to be successful ...
  • #797,567
  • Dec 17, 2023 2:12am Dec 17, 2023 2:12am
Quoting mallee
{quote} I think any successful trader will adapt his/her system over time Wave. Imo, the basics don't change. A Quasimodo was a Quasimodo 20 years ago and looks the same today. Today I avoid the NZD and the Swissy. Go with the flow. Cheers
Hi Mallee
Sorry have to disagree with you there, I wish I looked the same now as I did 20 years ago..., but this how the markets work everyone has a different opinion same as these forums, these forums would be pretty boring if we all posted the same, hence why this thread is so popular...
  • #797,568
  • Dec 17, 2023 2:54am Dec 17, 2023 2:54am
Hello guys, with just 8 trade days left this year, 1.29 - 1.30 cannot be ruled out as far as price trades above 1.2645... I will keep adding buy trades with my stops set at 1.2640. my average target will be set 1.29 axis.

Please trade with utmost caution and have a very good end of eventful year 2023.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #797,569
  • Dec 17, 2023 3:01am Dec 17, 2023 3:01am
Quoting Headland
{quote} Hi. Interesting points you make in that reply to Elysion. Since I started trading technically, on my own account, I have been profitable year-on-year for the last 19.5 years of 21 years basically using the same Edge. Yes, it has evolved/improved over time, but so has my competence in trading it and my general technical competence, to say nothing of my fundie/global macro (not wholly necessary for tech trading) read of the prevailing factors that may be @ play at any one time. So, per the discussion with Bones a few weeks ago about the 'human...

waveskierobs' analyses of market changes are irrelevant because he is not a trader.

he makes simple bets on price changes without any technical or fundamental analysis, purely on a random decision basis.

also, he doesn't look at charts and therefore can't identify recurring patterns.

you always have to keep that in mind with him;-)
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #797,570
  • Edited 3:32am Dec 17, 2023 3:06am | Edited 3:32am
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} Hi Mallee Sorry have to disagree with you there, I wish I looked the same now as I did 20 years ago..., but this how the markets work everyone has a different opinion same as these forums, these forums would be pretty boring if we all posted the same, hence why this thread is so popular...
well said ! systems are there , waves are there. the same ways bull bear fight for a balance ! but the maturity not stopped there . run with times of all ups and down specially ! no perfect , no more confident with all logics or anything , so needling changes in the system to adjust for better changes now or in the future to fit the present maturity / experience for now only adapt with ongoing changes as survival maneuver!
so before probable near 100 % with confident changes to just over 50% chance , more probable about 60 % , most probable 70% , likely 75% , more likely 80% , most likely 85% ,very confident / certain / must test goes 85 to max. 95% , still 5% there to prove all may wrong( 100s of time lost a trade having tp 20 pips above most probable / certain level of targets ) to 0-50% probabilities we always use to forget!! Probable to certain run inversely proportional to pips target and mathematics students may systemically apply in this situation.
so overall no trust to deal with but to ready and look for the escape now always the choice of action!this interaction of trust and distrust of own analyses now the result of maturity . may on time , no trading for period of times be the best action to rest in peace in hibernation ! take care
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #797,571
  • Dec 17, 2023 3:30am Dec 17, 2023 3:30am
for example, trading based on the correlation of pairs has not changed much, the basic idea has remained unchanged.
there are things that don't change. that's good.
  • #797,572
  • Dec 17, 2023 3:44am Dec 17, 2023 3:44am
Quoting navk
{quote} No, For me, for sure, it is " see & trade " I have written down meticulously in a white paper rules of the pattern that I am looking for. The rule book says conditions for : 1. Buy 2. Strong buy 3. Sell 4. Strong sell. 5. 1.5 to 2 % profit or 3 % loss in a day. ( To close mt4 ) I pasted this paper on the wall just in front of my laptop. I am very clear in mind, I do not forecast... bigger times.. because it easily ditches me and disappoints me. I am against big time forecasters too. ( Atleast in this thread.) There were people posted saying...
It is good to have tools (papers, alarm, whatever is needed) to help you not to deviate from the strategy, but this also tells that you're not doing it natively and this is bad as once put in a different environment, without those tools ... it may be that the paper will fall from the wall, the person without those tools will fail hard.
The most important thing I see is the ability to adapt in any circumstance, even when the prediction is wrong, (and we saw many times this), and escape from that trap with whatever it takes, ... hopefully undamaged, and if happen to have some scratches but still alive, is great too!
  • #797,573
  • Dec 17, 2023 5:31am Dec 17, 2023 5:31am
Quoting aa4fx
{quote} It is good to have tools (papers, alarm, whatever is needed) to help you not to deviate from the strategy, but this also tells that you're not doing it natively and this is bad as once put in a different environment, without those tools ... it may be that the paper will fall from the wall, the person without those tools will fail hard. The most important thing I see is the ability to adapt in any circumstance, even when the prediction is wrong, (and we saw many times this), and escape from that trap with whatever it takes, ... hopefully...
yes, it is very difficult to find a good long-term approach. if a strategy does not produce the expected results, it should simply be thrown in the trash. and you have to sit down at the drawing board again and again.
this is such a profession.
  • #797,574
  • Dec 17, 2023 5:47am Dec 17, 2023 5:47am
Quoting Georginson
Hello guys, with just 8 trade days left this year, 1.29 - 1.30 cannot be ruled out as far as price trades above 1.2645... I will keep adding buy trades with my stops set at 1.2640. my average target will be set 1.29 axis. Please trade with utmost caution and have a very good end of eventful year 2023.

I am looking for a push back down to 1.25 before buying toward 1.3250
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #797,575
  • Edited 8:38am Dec 17, 2023 6:59am | Edited 8:38am
in any case, I will wait until the candle closes within the BB and then long.
the S/R levels are already given.

H1.
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  • #797,576
  • Dec 17, 2023 7:44am Dec 17, 2023 7:44am
GU

Technical Outlook on Price Action
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Fundamental Outlook

Imagine the economy is sick with inflation.
BoE are the doctors, and their medicine is raising interest rates.

Right now, holding rates steady makes sense.
It's like the doctor checking the patient carefully before handing out more medicine.
They know in the past, doctors (central banks) rushed to lower rates too soon, giving the inflation disease a chance to come back even stronger.

But waiting too long with the rate medicine is also dangerous.
If the economy gets too weak while rates stay high, it's like giving too much medicine, making the patient (the economy) even sicker.

So, BoE are in a tough spot.
They need to find the right balance: stopping inflation without hurting the economy too much.
It's like finding the perfect dose of medicine, not too much, not too little.
(they should try organic, like herbal.)
NOTES :
The Bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted in favour of keeping the rate steady, with six members of the nine-strong committee were in favour of maintaining, and three calling for a further increase of 0.25 percent.

Point: Holding rates steady might be tempting now, but delaying cuts for too long could be counterproductive.

The Risk of Delay: Leaving rates high for too long can:
Stifle economic growth:
Higher borrowing costs discourage businesses and individuals from spending and investing, slowing down the economy.
Deepen economic downturn:
If the economy is already struggling, high rates can worsen the situation, leading to increased unemployment and financial hardship.
Erosion of public trust:
Repeated premature rate cuts followed by renewed inflation can erode public confidence in central banks' ability to manage the economy.
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #797,577
  • Dec 17, 2023 8:05am Dec 17, 2023 8:05am
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} Me and the mrs... {image}
Lol.....
No way this is yours ?

Anyway, I'm planning to decorate my herbal tree as Christmas tree.
We dont grow pine tree is Malaysia, thus the best alternative is this.
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If I lit the tree my neighbors will be the happies people on this planet.
I will give them tis T-sHirt and sent a few to FF.
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Merry Canabis
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #797,578
  • Dec 17, 2023 8:11am Dec 17, 2023 8:11am
Quoting Robinhood1
https://youtu.be/vnvI6V-TtLs?si=kUAfi34UevROujIR
POSTMASTER
  • #797,579
  • Dec 17, 2023 8:12am Dec 17, 2023 8:12am
GBP/USD looks on track to go to 1.26 or lower this week, I am not selling at the current price levels. But, I have a few sells from 1.2750 to 1.2790.

I guess the majority of the forum sold. So, people must be happy with Friday's movements
Small lot sizes, big wins
  • #797,580
  • Dec 17, 2023 8:15am Dec 17, 2023 8:15am
47000
POSTMASTER
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