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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #797,541
  • Dec 15, 2023 4:21pm Dec 15, 2023 4:21pm
The entire market interpreted the same message, anyhow, you can't trust the unreliable boyfriend central banker types.
William's role is to cool the market reading of the dot plot projections and Powell's words which can't be mistaken.
How else could we get a stock market double top other than a huge move up on fresh air chat?
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #797,542
  • Dec 15, 2023 5:47pm Dec 15, 2023 5:47pm
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} ...but how will you know that you've got "the holy grail"...
If I'm winning all or maybe 90% of my trades over a data of 100 trades/2 months
At the very least, with this sample size proving that this is workable.
Exhausted
  • #797,543
  • Dec 15, 2023 8:09pm Dec 15, 2023 8:09pm
Quoting aa4fx
What app are you using to put more digits on the Profit? … that’s what I got…{image}
I used a trial version, things changed a little bit later.
Trade explorer available, full story on my jurnal.
  • #797,544
  • Dec 15, 2023 9:13pm Dec 15, 2023 9:13pm
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} I think someone accidently pressed the paused button and trying to figure out, that markets are currently pumping on rate cuts next year, but throughout history the fed cuts rates in response to a recession.... Stock approaching ATH, time to cash out before Christmas ?. {image}
Same story with bonds Pat. Time to park the cash in aa+ at 5% while you still can. jmo
  • #797,545
  • Dec 15, 2023 9:45pm Dec 15, 2023 9:45pm
Quoting Bones
{quote} I've seen people talk about cup and handle, but I prefer a double top {image}
He He
  • #797,546
  • Dec 15, 2023 11:12pm Dec 15, 2023 11:12pm
Quoting nAVIN2007
{quote} I always found i could not trust myself how the hell I can trust someone else when it comes to trading sceneros when i first started trading Moe invited me into a private channel and was giving trading calls, I did not take a single one. But i soon realise he was a brilliant positional trader. I think he was confused, as was I
lilmoe the divergence man?
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #797,547
  • Dec 15, 2023 11:30pm Dec 15, 2023 11:30pm
the probability in trading is 99.9% chance is that price will move from 1 round number to the next round number, if i am lying check your chart and show me the week that price did not fulfill that.
its also very possible that out of the 5 days in a week 1 or 2 will be up or down.

when the market open i am certain the market will travel to any of the side but the most difficult part is entry and why is the entry because you have to wait for the parttern to show up depending on your rules
whats the difficult side of trading? PATIENT

i was so certain this friday will be a red day but i expected an up first to take out the stop of FOMO entry but it didnt happen and market continue to crash for over 100pips from the high.

the fear in taken trades will vanish when you have set rules and knowing you will lose some trades but it should never wipe out previous gain cus you need to remain at EDGE
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #797,548
  • Dec 16, 2023 12:16am Dec 16, 2023 12:16am
Quoting donfriday
the probability in trading is 99.9% chance is that price will move from 1 round number to the next round number, if i am lying check your chart and show me the week that price did not fulfill that. its also very possible that out of the 5 days in a week 1 or 2 will be up or down. when the market open i am certain the market will travel to any of the side but the most difficult part is entry and why is the entry because you have to wait for the parttern to show up depending on your rules whats the difficult side of trading? PATIENT i was so certain...
I prefer " see and trade " kind of system, even if it is worth 20 pips.

Thinking about probability, target, assumption of up or down direction led me to disaster.

A pattern... wether it is 1 min chart or 5 min chart or 30 min chart... is what I look for.

At the end of the day, my account has to grow.
Intraday only.
  • #797,549
  • Edited 1:46am Dec 16, 2023 12:27am | Edited 1:46am
no fear as no trade open there so may not play any hidden bias too for analysis !
price test but not breaks up the good target correction 2799. so interest remain very intact as too close to avoid the target ! daily close before the level of concerns 2701 and 2694 , so pressure remain down for correction too , other limits down as just sr , no limit actually are 2651/33 naturally be broken down / no respect ultimately . a 2nd leg likely start next over previous low 2499! levels for tl support goes to 2580+-/50-+
Take care
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #797,550
  • Dec 16, 2023 12:51am Dec 16, 2023 12:51am
Quoting navk
{quote} This Daily range extension, I see most of fridays. Today, 1.2500. It is likely to be bearish close which makes Sunday open bearish. One should look at chart on Monday morning for a possible reversal. ( starting with 4 hr support + 1 hour bullish, 4hr bullish candle still good ) {image}
the word likely is yes when you are not certain of the possibility outcome so why are you playing like you are getting all trades 100% right of time, probability is not used cus you are thinking of what should happen but when something is likely to happen and you are prepaid for the outcome.
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #797,551
  • Dec 16, 2023 12:54am Dec 16, 2023 12:54am
Quoting navk
{quote} I prefer " see and trade " kind of system, even if it is worth 20 pips. Thinking about probability, target, assumption of up or down direction led me to disaster. A pattern... wether it is 1 min chart or 5 min chart or 30 min chart... is what I look for. At the end of the day, my account has to grow.

probability grows ur account because you are prepared for the next movement that is likely to happen
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #797,552
  • Dec 16, 2023 3:17am Dec 16, 2023 3:17am
Quoting Coreg2004
{quote} Bones, you might be right but on the daily chart, there is the possibility of 250 pips correction—unacceptable DD for the day trader. {image}
great chart, but IMO close below Thursday open will make chart heavy bearish.
so the 4th is a question
  • #797,553
  • Dec 16, 2023 3:20am Dec 16, 2023 3:20am
Long term view

1.20177 is my go to
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  • #797,554
  • Dec 16, 2023 9:25am Dec 16, 2023 9:25am
it looks like there will be a bull correction.

M15.
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  • #797,555
  • Edited 1:17pm Dec 16, 2023 9:30am | Edited 1:17pm
Quoting donfriday
{quote} probability grows ur account because you are prepared for the next movement that is likely to happen
No,

For me, for sure, it is " see & trade "

I have written down meticulously in a white paper rules of the pattern that I am looking for.

The rule book says conditions for :

1. Buy
2. Strong buy
3. Sell
4. Strong sell.
5. 1.5 to 2 % profit or 3 % loss in a day. ( To close mt4 )

I pasted this paper on the wall just in front of my laptop.

I am very clear in mind, I do not forecast... bigger times.. because it easily ditches me and disappoints me.

I am against big time forecasters too. ( Atleast in this thread.)

There were people posted saying following in this thread.

1) Sell from 1.2650 on thursday, when the price rose to 1.2800

2 ) Buy on friday above 1.2800. when the price crashed more than 100 pips from 1.2790

And we know what happened on thursday and friday

My " see & trade " pattern in the chart was telling me other way.

I know my strength, i am a day trader and not a forecaster.

I have been successful in this.
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Intraday only.
  • #797,556
  • Dec 16, 2023 10:08am Dec 16, 2023 10:08am
Quoting donfriday
{quote} probability grows ur account because you are prepared for the next movement that is likely to happen
Having said of what is best for me, if you feel long term trading is good for you,, proceed in that way.

It is important to analyze ourselves our strenght and weekness.

There are different kind of traders, scalpers, day traders, weekly traders and so on.

A position trader will surely fail in scalping, vice versa.
Intraday only.
  • #797,557
  • Edited 11:46am Dec 16, 2023 11:04am | Edited 11:46am
Quoting navk
{quote} Having said of what is best for me, if you feel long term trading is good for you,, proceed in that way. It is important to analyze ourselves our strenght and weekness. There are different kind of traders, scalpers, day traders, weekly traders and so on. A position trader will surely fail in scalping, vice versa.

Hi. You make some good points in your last 2 posts. I think the problem with prediction/forecasting is that a trader get his/her ego involved or at least emotionally involved in that prediction/forecast, particularly if he/she shares it, (by posting it here for eg.) This inevitably over any larger sample will likely lead to worse results than had he/she just accepted that, like the rest of us, they know nothing, and traded what they saw with no pre-conceived bias/opinion, accepting the inevitable uncertainty that comes with trading, and understanding that we don't have to know what will happen next to make money, we just play our edge. some will win, some will lose, so what! - with the correct risk, money, and trade management applied we will come out over any given future sample of trades. (Assuming we have a large sample [s] empirically proven edge and know what we need to know about it to trade it profitably!)
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There is currently a repeating pattern of 1hr bullish hidden div - valid so long as price stays above 2612. It comes @ a sub-optimal place on 1hr (in a downtrend) and indeed on next higher t/f in this t/f where the uptrend first exists, ie 4hr is showing weakness and has printed a 2nd LL. It could be said to be there too on 2hr (next higher t/f is 8hr which is in a general uptrend) and this would come @ again a sub-optimal 1st LL on that t/f, and could be measured from same place as 1hr - is good whilst above 2612 or even may be valid whilst above 2500. For 4hr hidden div you could drop down to 1hr to fashion a better entry and for 2hr - drop down to 30min, - both might typically exhibit (if they set-up) osc extr's or regular bullish div in this case. Given where this hidden div is/might be re a price action trigger for entry (in terms of price action to it) on the t/f it is set-up on, and the next higher t/f into whose trend it might be an entry after a p/back, there is historically a much lower chance of it going on to achieving a new trend hi above 2794 in this case. This does not mean to say that it won't though.

1hr below
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #797,558
  • Dec 16, 2023 11:06am Dec 16, 2023 11:06am
Quoting navk
{quote} A position trader will surely fail in scalping, vice versa.
I agree with You!
I probably would "quickly" analise the fundamentals, the technicals, the sentiment, and IF everything would point in one direction, I would enter like a day trader. Just would do the mistake to run the winners...and manage my exposure. And with a good scenario, after 200-300... days later when (some basic element changed enough) I am out with 1000-2000...pips, I would realise: I "just" made 2000p/200day= 10p/day average. (EVERY day.)
BUT, it works for ME!
BUT, if scalping suit somebody personality, AND it WORKS for him...also great.
  • #797,559
  • Dec 16, 2023 11:09am Dec 16, 2023 11:09am
Quoting Elysion
{quote} If I'm winning all or maybe 90% of my trades over a data of 100 trades/2 months At the very least, with this sample size proving that this is workable.
A win rate is only what has happen not what's going to happen, however 100 trades/ 2 months is very short timespan in this game, in 2 years the markets will change how they form, so many variables to change, recessions, war, viruses , change of governments, not saying i'm right just never seen a system that stays profitable for any length of time, if you can prove me wrong please do ...hope you find what you are looking for...
  • #797,560
  • Dec 16, 2023 11:25am Dec 16, 2023 11:25am
Quoting navk
{quote} And gold on 1min chart ( today ) {image}
Navk, can you share these channel indicators or tell where I can get them from?
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