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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #796,121
  • Dec 9, 2023 3:03pm Dec 9, 2023 3:03pm
Quoting Bones
{quote} There is no system that gives a 90% accuracy over time without human intervention, this thing evolves all the time. Therefore you're kidding yourself to be the forex trader who doesn't make any forecasts on something that never happened already.
Yes, that is why EA ' s fail over a period of time.

Human intervetion :

1. Adjust trading lots size

2 . Adjust stop loss/ Take profit levels based on risk appetite ( Not in line with books )

3 . Scalp only at times.

4 . Swing trade only or day trade only at times.

5 . Choose diiferent pairs based on volatility

etc..etc
Intraday only.
  • #796,122
  • Dec 9, 2023 6:48pm Dec 9, 2023 6:48pm
Quoting Ferna
{quote} alright i am basically braindead these days but let’s see if we agree. Broker A is your broker. He/she has a liquidity provider which can either be Broker B,C,D.. together forming a liquidity pool. Or Broker A can have a direct agreement investment bank to supply liquidity. And then we can have the 3rd kind of broker who has his own liquidity pool, which are basically the clients deposits put together. Let’s say it’s the 2nd alternative… Broker A forms a liquidity pool with Broker B and Broker C. Together they have 3 times much money. Broker...
So I understood that the forex and commodity broker is more of a facilitator than a liquidity provider, relying on clients, investment banks and similar entities to provide the liquidity. These groups require special licensing and different market registration.
Dark pools exist in stock markets but because the volatility in forex and commodity markets keeps them out of these markets. Brokers handling dark pools (extremely large transactions kept off books for periods of time in theory to prevent market disruptions) only do so if they have clients on both sides of the transaction (the Goldman Sachs of the world).
In forex, central banks, the fed and so on post huge out of the market trades to attract the AI's controlling price and trades to these out of the market prices. Sometimes these out of the market trades are cancelled before they are settled, other times they are traded because there are even more out of the market trades continuing to attract prices in a specific direction.
The AI's that control trading and price can generate liquidity to move price in a direction of their choosing (chop and stop hunts) but only so long as it fulfills their two primary goals, to move price to open transactions profitably and to maintain a balanced pricing relationship between all currency pairs. Individual brokers cannot control price. Individual brokers can control the spreads that they offer their clients.
  • #796,123
  • Dec 9, 2023 7:24pm Dec 9, 2023 7:24pm
Quoting Robinhood1
{quote} Try projecting fib 1.618 on weekly
LOL...
  • #796,124
  • Dec 9, 2023 7:31pm Dec 9, 2023 7:31pm
Quoting Ferna
{quote} alright i am basically braindead these days but let’s see if we agree. Broker A is your broker. He/she has a liquidity provider which can either be Broker B,C,D.. together forming a liquidity pool. Or Broker A can have a direct agreement investment bank to supply liquidity. And then we can have the 3rd kind of broker who has his own liquidity pool, which are basically the clients deposits put together. Let’s say it’s the 2nd alternative… Broker A forms a liquidity pool with Broker B and Broker C. Together they have 3 times much money. Broker...
Much simple. No broker involved. 3 traders ok. Me and 2 more A and B making a team. Must be a well know financial institution. They can only hold my position 2/3 days due to my accuracy. Trader A starts trading against my position (15) from minute one savagely locking my entry. I am underwater for 2/3 days going down to 10, till price finds support (natural law). Price bounces back against trader A to 20 points. In its worst, he is 10 points underwater now. I am gaining 5 points+ some more adding from 15 to 10 going long. Trader B buys A's positions at 10 in a paralel engineering accountancy at light speed making the operations seem legal when price is at 20, remember, they own and regulate the exchange House. Its a lobby and processed by AI. Trader A has 5 points profit (short)while trader B obtains 10 points profit (long) one second after buying from trader' A shorts. I sell at 20 with a 5 point profit plus my addings. We all have profits. The rest of retailers are losers.
POSTMASTER
  • #796,125
  • Dec 9, 2023 8:01pm Dec 9, 2023 8:01pm
Quoting Robinhood1
{quote} Much simple. No broker involved. 3 traders ok. Me and 2 more A and B making a team. Must be a well know financial institution. They can only hold my position 2/3 days due to my accuracy. Trader A starts trading against my position (15) from minute one savagely locking my entry. I am underwater for 2/3 days going down to 10, till price finds support (natural law). Price bounces back against trader A to 20 points. In its worst, he is 10 points underwater now. I am gaining 5 points+ some more adding from 15 to 10 going long....
In reality, they rub their hands if a talented swing trader shows up. They know which way the market will finally head towards so they can bet against him making huge profits closing massive orders when price goes into talented trader 's direction.
POSTMASTER
  • #796,126
  • Dec 9, 2023 8:05pm Dec 9, 2023 8:05pm
Quoting Robinhood1
{quote} In reality, they rub their hands if a talented swing trader shows up. They know which way the market will finally head towards so they can bet against him making huge profits closing massive orders when price goes into talented trader 's direction.
Quite clever
POSTMASTER
  • #796,127
  • Dec 9, 2023 8:18pm Dec 9, 2023 8:18pm
Quoting Robinhood1
{quote} Quite clever
Financially, i have multyplied my balance 43 times in 6 weeks. They must have multyplied by 500 with a massive account. Nothing to complain about personally. Quite Happy
POSTMASTER
  • #796,128
  • Dec 9, 2023 8:21pm Dec 9, 2023 8:21pm
Quoting Robinhood1
{quote} Financially, i have multyplied my balance 43 times in 6 weeks. They must have multyplied by 500 with a massive account. Nothing to complain about personally. Quite Happy
The difference is i cannot afford to make a fatal mistake. Its a win win game for them. This is how life is.
POSTMASTER
  • #796,129
  • Dec 10, 2023 12:38am Dec 10, 2023 12:38am
Quoting Ferna
{quote} Sure, this is true. It’s hierarchical though. Every time they go to real market they earn less commission. But if you are trading with the big banks it’s a win for them overall, well as long as money is worth something. but are they really traders? The brokers? Well since it is off-setting positions, if broker copies you and has 500 times more winning positions, it need to find 500 more losers to pay for their wins. I would think that’s a bad business model, then they have to make those losers if they can’t find them which will lead to less...
Real brokerage firms are just the instrument to execute orders from my experience. Very Happy with my broker. It is a Corporation who controls the market. A financial group, through the exchange House. In my case, although 99% trading is a riged business, i am making profits. Whether i should have commented this, i don't know. My advice is that, anyone can be profitable but chances are less than 1%, you must be pasionate and gifted.

I now will stop commenting on this issue anymore as i finally understand what is going.
POSTMASTER
  • #796,130
  • Dec 10, 2023 12:43am Dec 10, 2023 12:43am
Quoting Robinhood1
{quote} Real brokerage firms are just the instrument to execute orders from my experience. Very Happy with my broker. It is a Corporation who controls the market. A financial group, through the exchange House. In my case, although 99% trading is a riged business, i am making profits. Whether i should have commented this, i don't know. My advice is that, anyone can be profitable but chances are less than 1%, you must be pasionate and gifted. I now will stop commenting on this issue anymore as i finally understand what is going.
One last thing, Mr Market will eventually find winners and losers
POSTMASTER
  • #796,131
  • Dec 10, 2023 1:16am Dec 10, 2023 1:16am
If Bitcoin breaks through 42855, we may see a retracement down before continueing its way up.
POSTMASTER
  • #796,132
  • Dec 10, 2023 2:00am Dec 10, 2023 2:00am
Quoting Robinhood1
{quote} In reality, they rub their hands if a talented swing trader shows up. They know which way the market will finally head towards so they can bet against him making huge profits closing massive orders when price goes into talented trader 's direction.
among others, these are manipulative games, why I changed my strategy and stopped swing trading. because it's very hard to win when almost everything is against me..
  • #796,133
  • Dec 10, 2023 4:30am Dec 10, 2023 4:30am
Quoting Headland
{quote} You are conflating two separate issues. Ie one does not necessarily follow the other. But anyway, I'll deal with them separately. 1. All none 'EA' edges (for want of a better phrase,) require human intervention to make a decision whether to enter the market, or not. I do so based on a set of rules applicable to my edge. If they are met I do, if not I don't, - except that sometimes not all are met but sufficient are to make a lower than perfect, but still acceptably hi-probability, market entry/trade, but to compensate for this I use a lower...
All none 'EA' edges (for want of a better phrase,) require human intervention to make a decision whether to enter the market, or not.
That does not seem correct to me.

Human intervention is not required for an EA to execute trades based on the rules formulated from your edge. You stated,"I do so [enter a trade] based on a set of rules applicable to my edge." In the same manner then, "My EA enters a trade based on a set of rules, applicable to my edge, that are programmed into it." Same rules, just 2 different executioners.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #796,134
  • Dec 10, 2023 4:34am Dec 10, 2023 4:34am
Quoting birdland
{quote} very good trade hoda! and also courageous, because you held the position during the NFP figures. did you accept a high slippage in the event of a stop hunt or simply knew that the market could only fall? or to put it another way, do you do this often and have you had good experiences with it? as i trade short-term like you, i try not to hold trades on such important red news. it has cost me too much money.
Bro, I strictly follow my system, only technical. I don't know fundamental's.
I don't care about news.
Entry Before News: I move my T.P. More down at 1H Demand Zone.
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Intraday Trading is an Art _ hoda
  • #796,135
  • Dec 10, 2023 4:46am Dec 10, 2023 4:46am
Quoting navk
{quote} Yes, that is why EA ' s fail over a period of time. Human intervetion : 1. Adjust trading lots size 2 . Adjust stop loss/ Take profit levels based on risk appetite ( Not in line with books ) 3 . Scalp only at times. 4 . Swing trade only or day trade only at times. 5 . Choose diiferent pairs based on volatility etc..etc
that is why EA ' s fail over a period of time.
This is not a logical conclusion.

1. Adjust trading lots size
The human has some "rules" for when and by how much to adjust the lot size. These are not just randomly invoked. The EA can be programmed with the same rules for lot size adjustment.
2 . Adjust stop loss/ Take profit levels based on risk appetite ( Not in line with books )
You stated a part of the rule: "Not in line with books" = "EA, check 'the books' and determine SL/TP based on the risk appetite that you calculated."
3 . Scalp only at times.
This is ambiguous, but I will assume clock times, such as starting 1 hour after London open. Clearly, that is easly programmed into an EA.
4 . Swing trade only or day trade only at times.
This is ambiguous, but I will assume that you mean that there are different conditions, such volatility of price movements, that are the deciding factors in choosing swing or day trading. These factors can be programmed into an EA.
5 . Choose diiferent pairs based on volatility.
The human might simply visually assess volatility, but it is more likely that he will use a volatility indicator. In that case, the EA can be programmed to calculate the volatility of each selected pair and then use the same threshold as does a human to determine if the pair is to be traded.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #796,136
  • Dec 10, 2023 4:46am Dec 10, 2023 4:46am
Saturday and Sunday. I just focused on crypto
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Look right, we'll see the signs
  • #796,137
  • Dec 10, 2023 4:48am Dec 10, 2023 4:48am
Quoting Robinhood1
If Bitcoin breaks through 42855, we may see a retracement down before continueing its way up.
Look right, we'll see the signs
  • #796,138
  • Dec 10, 2023 4:51am Dec 10, 2023 4:51am
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  • #796,139
  • Dec 10, 2023 4:57am Dec 10, 2023 4:57am
From next week, I am mainly interested in eur/nzd. good volatility pair.
  • #796,140
  • Edited 6:44am Dec 10, 2023 6:17am | Edited 6:44am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} that is why EA ' s fail over a period of time. This is not a logical conclusion. 1. Adjust trading lots size The human has some "rules" for when and by how much to adjust the lot size. These are not just randomly invoked. The EA can be programmed with the same rules for lot size adjustment. 2 . Adjust stop loss/ Take profit levels based on risk appetite ( Not in line with books ) You stated a part of the rule: "Not in line with books" = "EA, check 'the books' and determine SL/TP based on the risk appetite that you calculated." 3 . Scalp...
I agree all your points.

My point is, all the stated requirements can be programed in a single EA ?. That is question mark.

Of course, all can be programmed.

But the history says EA works this week, this month but fails next week, next month.

An example :


No trade is supposed to be taken between 3 pm est and 8 pm est ( until Tokyo opens )

This statement is applicable if fx pairs behaves in the same way on all days.

On some and one day, for some unknown reasons, some pair moves 50/60 pips in that time duration, then when EA is put on when tokyo opens, it will malfunction.

Not only that, you loose an opportunity to capture 50/60 pips.

Another one example :

GBPUSD moves up on a particular day in line with 5 min, 15min, 30min, 1 hr TF of something like that.

The next day, the same pair may retrace in smaller TF in 5/15 min tf.

You loose opportunity to trade the retrace if you concentrate to trade only trend moves. In a trend move, the opportunity is less, a study says, for 50 % of days the pairs are just choppy.

Like this, there are many.

Human intervetion is a must even if EA is developed.

And i highly doubt if the person who is inputting to EA is fully knowledgeble.

All are almost half knowlegeble in this field.

I am posting this for just argument sake, not for trolling.

You know me.
Intraday only.
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