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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #796,101
  • Dec 9, 2023 9:59am Dec 9, 2023 9:59am
Quoting dantpm
{quote} Sir, your edge for you is your analysis. The missing detail is that your trading experience allows you to use this analysis effectively. Another individual using the same basic analysis without experience or a different background may not get the same results. Just a thought.
It's predicting but he wants to say it another way, everyone must have an edge to succeed. Win rate isn't everything you have to factor in trade size.
With a micro account, the win rate would be higher without a doubt, that's half the problem with the forex factory.
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #796,102
  • Dec 9, 2023 10:07am Dec 9, 2023 10:07am
If I said the weekly is false but I'd need to see Monday morning open first
is that predicting or using my edge
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #796,103
  • Dec 9, 2023 10:10am Dec 9, 2023 10:10am
Quoting Bones
If I said the weekly is false but I'd need to see Monday morning open first is that predicting or using my edge
That's responding or reacting to what the market tells you or is this fogging as well?
  • #796,104
  • Dec 9, 2023 10:15am Dec 9, 2023 10:15am
Quoting Bones
{quote} It's predicting but he wants to say it another way, everyone must have an edge to succeed. Win rate isn't everything you have to factor in trade size. With a micro account, the win rate would be higher without a doubt, that's half the problem with the forex factory.

the other problem is in the usual analysis methods, I completely abandoned them, at a certain level. I use the usual methods but as a guide. my basic strategy is based on something completely different.
but I understand others, if there is no other analysis method then the old one remains.
  • #796,105
  • Dec 9, 2023 10:20am Dec 9, 2023 10:20am
Quoting dantpm
{quote} That's responding or reacting to what the market tells you or is this fogging as well?
I would go in thinking that weekly is false, and sometimes I would go in already made my mind up the Thursday before
if it opens bullish, I would think it could end bullish, mainly because of the monthly before.
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #796,106
  • Dec 9, 2023 10:28am Dec 9, 2023 10:28am
Quoting Bones
{quote} I would go in thinking that weekly is false, and sometimes I would go in already made my mind up the Thursday before if it opens bullish, I would think it could end bullish, mainly because of the monthly before. {image}
I think it is more worthwhile to wait for a trend line break in the north. This is at least more likely to be correct.
  • #796,107
  • Edited 11:21am Dec 9, 2023 11:05am | Edited 11:21am
Quoting dantpm
{quote} Sir, your edge for you is your analysis. The detail that is missing is that your trading experience allows you to use this analysis effectively. Another individual using the same basic analysis without your experience or with a different background may not get the same results. Just a thought.
Hi, the type of analysis I posted above provides the context in which the individual repeating set-ups/patterns that are part of my edge develop. Ie it is part of the edge's methodology and crucial to it in that I do not trade every set-up that develops. It depends on the context they develop in. For eg I would not trade against a trend that exists on the t/f it develops on and higher t/f's above that in the t/f combo, even @ pre-identified potential supp or res on the appropriate t/f (s,) unless there was @ least a supporting set-up on the t/f above that.

I do agree that if you gave someone's edge to someone else they would likely not achieve the same results, and that, although rule-based as much as it can ever be, my edge like any other benefits from my experience of using it, re win rate etc.

Quoting Bones
{quote} It's predicting but he wants to say it another way, everyone must have an edge to succeed. Win rate isn't everything you have to factor in trade size. With a micro account, the win rate would be higher without a doubt, that's half the problem with the forex factory.
Hi, it really isn't prediction for this reason; when an edge sets up we do not know whether this will be one of the occasions it wins or loses. All we know is the historical win rate over whatsoever sample size to that point in time. Lets say it has a 70% win rate, will this trade be one of the 70% wins or 30% losers? We don't know and that is because there is an almost certainty that every moment in the market is unique, made up of different buyers and sellers, with a different total volumes, for different reasons, than last time the edge set up on the same instrument. So, when I go into a trade, I don't predict anything. There is a difference, it's not just semantics.

I agree that win rate is not everything. You can make money with a sub 50% win rate so long as you R:R is geared toward that win rate. A high win rate though generally makes it easier on the psychology.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #796,108
  • Dec 9, 2023 11:15am Dec 9, 2023 11:15am
Quoting tiborf71
{quote} I think it is more worthwhile to wait for a trend line break in the north. This is at least more likely to be correct.
yes, maybe next month is best to sell over a distance
this month can't take the last Very High probability
if it did, it would not stop until the bottom
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #796,109
  • Dec 9, 2023 11:31am Dec 9, 2023 11:31am
Quoting Headland
{quote} Hi, the type of analysis I posted above provides the context in which the individual repeating set-ups/patterns that are part of my edge develop. Ie it is part of the edge's methodology and crucial to it in that I do not trade every set-up that develops. It depends on the context they develop in. For eg I would not trade against a trend that exists on the t/f it develops on and higher t/f's above that in the t/f combo, even @ pre-identified potential supp or res on the appropriate t/f (s,) unless there was @ least.
You would predict you have a 70% chance of winning and a 30% of losing on that described setup, but you don't know which for sure, the same as everyone else.
No one comes in saying it 100% will happen.
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #796,110
  • Dec 9, 2023 11:33am Dec 9, 2023 11:33am
Quoting Bones
{quote} You would predict you have a 70% chance of winning and a 30% of losing on that described setup, but you don't know which for sure, the same as everyone else. No one comes in saying it 100% will happen.
You don't have to predict. Those stats are already known. Prediction is applicable to things that are unknown in the future.

Quoting Bones
If I said the weekly is false but I'd need to see Monday morning open first is that predicting or using my edge
Can't answer that - none of us know, only you know what that statement is based on. You have intimated in another post that it is largely the previous monthly bullish thrust candle close, but again we do not know whether an upside follow thru on this instrument and that mthly t/f is more probable than not and to what degree(%) based on a representative historical sample, or simply your intuition that may be borne of your experience / anecdotal or observational evidence. If the later, we also dont know the % probability and nor do you, and we also don' t know whether the phenomenon of ' confirmation bias ' is tainting your judgement in this statement, and neither do you.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #796,111
  • Dec 9, 2023 11:44am Dec 9, 2023 11:44am
Quoting Headland
{quote} You don't have to predict. Those stats are already known. Prediction is applicable to things that are unknown in the future.
If you know for 100% fact you should be a billionaire, I can guarantee your 90%+ win rate is on an amount that you are personally not bothered about.
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #796,112
  • Dec 9, 2023 11:49am Dec 9, 2023 11:49am
Quoting Bones
{quote} You would predict you have a 70% chance of winning and a 30% of losing on that described setup, but you don't know which for sure, the same as everyone else. No one comes in saying it 100% will happen.
for example, I count on an 80% win rate on the grid, but this can change during trading, because sometimes I already know in the middle of the process that I can no longer get out of it profitably. In this case, I close everything.
  • #796,113
  • Dec 9, 2023 11:52am Dec 9, 2023 11:52am
Quoting Bones
{quote} If you know for 100% fact you should be a billionaire, I can guarantee your 90%+ win rate is on an amount that you are personally not bothered about.
You cannot guarantee that because you don't know. This may be a great eg of 'confirmation' bias, but's that's another story.
My 85-98% win rate ( depending on the set-up) has been achieved by an increasing amount of margin as I have retained profits to grow trade sizes over the years, and I trade at a size I am indeed ' bothered about ' because for me and my family's day to day living exps, this is our primary source of income.

Re your other point, Yes, if you could indeed see the future 100% you could bet the farm on each trade as you know it will definitely 100% win.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #796,114
  • Edited 1:18pm Dec 9, 2023 11:55am | Edited 1:18pm
let me predict whats goin to happen next year since its december so time to look at yearly chart using my edge


i trade the forrest gump way
Inserted Video

when the room is boolish ill short and when the room is bearish ill buy

one exception will be the next british general election if comes early...as long as the brits keep electing brain dead tories or any tories for that matter the pound will keep dying...i dont think the usa or world is gona save the island from anymore stupid leaders like we did last year with liz truss LOL...if brits elect another conservative government that wants to give away tax cuts to the rich that dont need em ill short gilt and hold it till parity \

ill just buy etf's and hold em in my retirement accounts so the british public pays for my over 55 housing community expenses

price will range between these two lines
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short trump and go long the deepstate
  • #796,115
  • Dec 9, 2023 12:13pm Dec 9, 2023 12:13pm
Quoting Headland
{quote} You cannot guarantee that because you don't know. This may be a great eg of 'confirmation' bias, but's that's another story. My 85-98% win rate ( depending on the set-up) has been achieved by an increasing amount of margin as I have retained profits to grow trade sizes over the years, and I trade at a size I am indeed ' bothered about ' because for me and my family's day to day living exps, this is our primary source of income. Re your other point, Yes, if you could indeed see the future 100% you could bet the farm on each trade as you know...
There is no system that gives a 90% accuracy over time without human intervention, this thing evolves all the time.
Therefore you're kidding yourself to be the forex trader who doesn't make any forecasts on something that never happened already.
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #796,116
  • Dec 9, 2023 12:41pm Dec 9, 2023 12:41pm
usually the entry point has already decided everything.
  • #796,117
  • Edited 1:33pm Dec 9, 2023 1:00pm | Edited 1:33pm
Quoting Bones
{quote} There is no system that gives a 90% accuracy over time without human intervention, this thing evolves all the time. Therefore you're kidding yourself to be the forex trader who doesn't make any forecasts on something that never happened already.
You are conflating two separate issues. Ie one does not necessarily follow the other. But anyway, I'll deal with them separately.

1. All none 'EA' edges (for want of a better phrase,) require human intervention to make a decision whether to enter the market, or not. I do so based on a set of rules applicable to my edge. If they are met I do, if not I don't, - except that sometimes not all are met but sufficient are to make a lower than perfect, but still acceptably hi-probability, market entry/trade, but to compensate for this I use a lower than the typical risk, in terms of trade size, than if it had set up perfectly per the rules. Even those though are repeating patterns and subject to a rule set/conditions, as described. I agree though that all edges evolve over time, and to your implicit suggestion that none of us adhere to the rules/conditions, all of the time; Well, we are by nature imperfect as human beings, and sometimes slip. There are times that said confirmation bias kicks in, and intuition, and we may act on that, regardless of whether our edge has set up or not. I think experience teaches us to minimise these slips in discipline.

2. Notwithstanding all the above, I really do not predict or forecast what will happen next. I am comfortable with that. Believe it or not.

Good discussion, but it is clear we won't agree on some points so If you don't mind I won't respond to any further posts on these matters. I think anyone reading the discussion has sufficient information to decide where they may stand.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #796,118
  • Dec 9, 2023 1:30pm Dec 9, 2023 1:30pm
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Air force
  • #796,119
  • Dec 9, 2023 2:23pm Dec 9, 2023 2:23pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} I was asking about the reason for your target. I often trade the GA, and this pair has not been in the 2.0600 area since March 2020. From your target, I imagine that you believe conditions in GB are about to improve, or things in Australia are falling apart, relative to one another. Just curious about how this move to 2.0600 is going to unfold, either fundamentally or technically.
Try projecting fib 1.618 on weekly
POSTMASTER
  • #796,120
  • Dec 9, 2023 2:49pm Dec 9, 2023 2:49pm
Quoting Ferna
{quote} lol he forgot to consider the H16384 in his analysis.
Hi Ferna. I could never stopped thinking about your coment how MM holding positions for months against a specific trader. I worked out how It is done as i am experiencing Sort of, except i am eventually winning the game with a slight delay. It is a similar scam to the 3 cup one. Once they have Lost their position after lets say trading 99% short positions from 15 to 10 and price turns around to 17, all those underwater positions are bought at 10 by Corporation B Who Will inmediatly start selling at 17. It must be done behind the curtain somehow. This means, its even convinient to trade against a talented trader cos the winning is done both ways guaranteed. Everyone is winner, the 2 Corporations plus the talented trader. After all these operations are made out of thin Air. Now, you might think, how the hell price manages to beat the huge pressure, its the Natural offer and demand from a mathematical time squaring
POSTMASTER
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