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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #796,081
  • Dec 8, 2023 11:35pm Dec 8, 2023 11:35pm
Quoting DrDave
{quote} I disagree. I see the Cable trend on H4/H8/H16/H32 as down. H2/H1/m30 heading up, attempting to start, but not yet in, uptrends to get those higher TFs up. And the H2/H1/M30 heading up can only happen by the TFs below them going into uptrends. And because the "crowd" has been fooled into thinking that these smaller TFs are "noise", they do not consider them, so no chance that the "crowd" is seeing those small uptrends.
When 1.2612 is broken, will continue travelling up. Although, may retrace once more to 1.25xx levels first.
POSTMASTER
  • #796,082
  • Dec 9, 2023 1:59am Dec 9, 2023 1:59am
Quoting Pat Chiko
Dollah Index Daily cunt. Count (typo){image}
My prevous cunt didnt include monthly, yesterday re count from monthly to 15mins
come to this
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More time in the market, does not mean you trade better!
  • #796,083
  • Dec 9, 2023 2:08am Dec 9, 2023 2:08am
from my friend bruno

Inserted Video
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #796,084
  • Dec 9, 2023 2:54am Dec 9, 2023 2:54am
Quoting pipfarm
Gold interestingly enough looks like a clear down trade H4 in correction against D1 and D1 is in correction move down with W1 , overall the D1/W1 swing down is corrective but the next leg down on H4 is the impulsive part of the correction or leg C , so a possible trade with a close below 2020.15 which would send H4 into the impulse trend down Keep in mind gold down= dollar up, so if dollar goes up sterling goes down.

As it happens it happened ,Clear down move on gold with dollar up and GU down
Follow The Markets Structure - Patience and Discipline
  • #796,085
  • Dec 9, 2023 2:56am Dec 9, 2023 2:56am
Quoting hoda
{quote} Done. {image}
very good trade hoda! and also courageous, because you held the position during the NFP figures.

did you accept a high slippage in the event of a stop hunt or simply knew that the market could only fall?

or to put it another way, do you do this often and have you had good experiences with it?

as i trade short-term like you, i try not to hold trades on such important red news. it has cost me too much money.
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #796,086
  • Dec 9, 2023 3:03am Dec 9, 2023 3:03am
that trendline break in the north a few days ago, I think, determined the direction until the end of the year.
D1.


this is just my own opinion.
  • #796,087
  • Dec 9, 2023 3:35am Dec 9, 2023 3:35am
Quoting tiborf71
that trendline break in the north a few days ago, I think, determined the direction until the end of the year. D1. this is just my own opinion.
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  • #796,088
  • Dec 9, 2023 4:15am Dec 9, 2023 4:15am
Will likely continue short on Monday
after that we should continue upwards
Exhausted
  • #796,089
  • Dec 9, 2023 4:45am Dec 9, 2023 4:45am
Quoting kelvinftg
{quote} Why is your all narrative based on USD strength here and USD strength there though? DXY is literally at where it started in 2023 and it has been on a decline since the beginning of Oct.. Help me understand.
How about since DXY is the denominator in GU, any short term movement in DXY either amplifies or mitigates a move in GU.
  • #796,090
  • Dec 9, 2023 5:41am Dec 9, 2023 5:41am
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yes yes yes
  • #796,091
  • Dec 9, 2023 6:45am Dec 9, 2023 6:45am
H1.
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  • #796,092
  • Dec 9, 2023 8:32am Dec 9, 2023 8:32am
Quoting Zebi
i just want to say dollar still boolish so you all know what that means... the santa rally if it comes will prolly start next thursday or friday see youse later
the crazier the usd the better for me.
I use a grid system.
  • #796,093
  • Dec 9, 2023 8:45am Dec 9, 2023 8:45am
Quoting Robinhood1
{quote} Trade naturally like Paco de Lucia playing the guitar https://youtu.be/yaREvR1Pd7g?si=bEV8m1qB7cqr_cQz
I was asking about the reason for your target. I often trade the GA, and this pair has not been in the 2.0600 area since March 2020. From your target, I imagine that you believe conditions in GB are about to improve, or things in Australia are falling apart, relative to one another. Just curious about how this move to 2.0600 is going to unfold, either fundamentally or technically.
  • #796,094
  • Dec 9, 2023 8:56am Dec 9, 2023 8:56am
Quoting Robinhood1
{quote} When 1.2612 is broken, will continue travelling up. Although, may retrace once more to 1.25xx levels first.
lol he forgot to consider the H16384 in his analysis.
You have an IQ lower than 90 if you interact with this user.
  • #796,095
  • Edited 1:57pm Dec 9, 2023 9:16am | Edited 1:57pm
W/E:

What happened / where we are:
* Wkly candle (@ 108% of 13wk awr) closed bearishly and without the spread widening @ the week's open probably bearishly engulfed the previous wk's candle. 2732 is now a confirmed H on this wkly t/f
* Fri's Dly candle (@ 108% of 30day adr) closed as a bearish-bodied hammer. The t/f is still in a general uptrend but there will be a L printed @ the week's 2502 lo or lower on this t/f, when it forms fractally, this below it's 6th consecutive HL @ 2603.
* The last 4Hr candle was a pinbar. The t/f remains in a general downtrend, (and probably has a falling wedge pattern on it still?) 1Hr too closed the week in a messy general downtrend.

What next:?
Barring those of us who possess the power of foresight (or at least think they do, [!]) none of us know for sure. the Wkly candle may seem to suggest more downside at some point,? (38.2% of the recent 2038-2732 rise is @ 2468,) -but- last Dly candle closed as a hammer, and the t/f is still in a general uptrend, and there is probably still a falling wedge on 4Hr. The bounce up from the day's/wkly lo to the p/back hi exceeded 50% of the main down move fall on Friday.

EDIT: (added) There is an historically not very high probability repeating pattern of bullish hidden div on dly - which may stay valid so long as price above 2449, and per the discussion below with Bones, any more downside will be in the shadow of that previous mthly close - a bullish thrust candle.

As always, trade what you see not what you think/expect/feel/predict/want to happen.

Wkly, Dly, then 4Hr below
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #796,096
  • Dec 9, 2023 9:30am Dec 9, 2023 9:30am
here, almost everyone performs the analysis based on the same approach.
that's why it doesn't work very well. this basic approach does not exceed a 50/50 hit rate.
but come on.
  • #796,097
  • Edited 9:52am Dec 9, 2023 9:40am | Edited 9:52am
Quoting tiborf71
here, almost everyone performs the analysis based on the same approach. that's why it doesn't work very well. this basic approach does not exceed a 50/50 hit rate. but come on.
Hi, well I don't know about that stat, my Trading Edge has a very high 85-98% win rate (depending on particular set-up,) over a very large multi-year forward traded sample to date. The analysis I posted above tells us what each larger t/f is doing (trend or range,) what the last candle printed on each was, and where the potential supp/res/sbr/rbs on those t/f's may be, because this is all we know, using this type of TA. TA overall, as we know, is predicated on the theory (or indeed proven theory) that everything that is known that may affect price is discounted into the price at the hard right edge of the chart. The rest, ie what happens next - can only be based on historical probabilities should your edge set-up to suggest that there exists an x% probability over y of price moving in the former's direction happening next. There are many Trading Edges that use TA that achieve way over the win rate you suggest.

My 'signature' (replicated at the bottom of each post) tells the thread what type of trader I am.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #796,098
  • Dec 9, 2023 9:48am Dec 9, 2023 9:48am
Quoting Headland
{quote} Hi, well I don't know about that stat, my Trading Edge has a very high 85% + win rate over a very large multi-year forward traded sample to date. The analysis I posted above tells us what each larger t/f is doing (trend or range,) what the last candle printed on each was, and where the potential supp/res/sbr/rbs on those t/f's may be, because this is all we know, The rest, ie what happens next - can only be based on historical probabilities should your edge set-up to suggest that there exists an x% probability over y of price moving in the...
hi.
I see you're using trend lines, that's good.
because that way you can test the different levels and know where to put the SL.
  • #796,099
  • Dec 9, 2023 9:52am Dec 9, 2023 9:52am
Quoting Headland
{quote} Hi, well I don't know about that stat, my Trading Edge has a very high 85% + win rate over a very large multi-year forward traded sample to date. The analysis I posted above tells us what each larger t/f is doing (trend or range,) what the last candle printed on each was, and where the potential supp/res/sbr/rbs on those t/f's may be, because this is all we know, using this type of TA. TA overall, as we know, is predicated on the theory or indeed proven theory) that everything that is known that may affect price is discounted into the price...
Sir, your edge for you is your analysis. The detail that is missing is that your trading experience allows you to use this analysis effectively. Another individual using the same basic analysis without your experience or with a different background may not get the same results.
Just a thought.
  • #796,100
  • Dec 9, 2023 9:55am Dec 9, 2023 9:55am
Quoting dantpm
{quote} Sir, your edge for you is your analysis. The detail that is missing is that your trading experience allows you to use this analysis effectively. Another individual using the same basic analysis without your experience or with a different background may not get the same results. Just a thought.

don't fog.
please.
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