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USD/CHF

  • #1
  • First Post: Jun 13, 2007 5:15pm Jun 13, 2007 5:15pm
I don't see much discussion of USDCHF very often...

According to the calendar, there is to be an interest rate statement in 9.5 hours. The prediction is that the rate will go up by a quarter percent.

I see that USDCHF has been on a tear lately going up about 280 pips since June 6th. That leads me to believe that the market thinks they won't increase interest rates. Otherwise the price would go down since increasing interest rates make a currency more valuable, thus USDCHF should be going down.

Any ideas on if they will go increase rates?
  • #2
  • Jun 13, 2007 5:44pm Jun 13, 2007 5:44pm
Quoting ra300z
I don't see much discussion of USDCHF very often...

Any ideas on if they will go increase rates?
Personally, I think that usdchf should be relegated from the perception that it is one of the world's 4 major currencies.

For example, there are more trade announcments here on FF about the Australian Dollar than the Swiss Franc. Even now, the Australian Dollar is stronger than the Swiss Franc.

It seems that the Swiss Fanc is more affected by what the Euro does and carry traders than any of its own economic activities.


Even if the Swiss do infact hike interest rates it may be a case of "buy the rumour sell the fact" just like it was this month when the ECB raised interest rates.
  • #3
  • Jun 13, 2007 7:40pm Jun 13, 2007 7:40pm
This could be a good trade. If there is no interest rate change, then there will be a big selloff. If there is an interest rate change, then it's already priced in.

As for USDCHF still being a major, I think it's based on volume. I tried looking for a pie chart showing Forex volume. I could not find one.

I think the daily pip variance is still much higher with CHF. Based on Alpari data, this is what I calculated. The numbers represent the average high-low, aka pip variance on the daily.
AUDUSD 66.4
EURUSD 95.9
GBPUSD 137.3
USDCAD 90.4
USDCHF 107.9
USDJPY 91.7
  • #4
  • Jun 13, 2007 7:52pm Jun 13, 2007 7:52pm
Quoting ra300z
This could be a good trade. If there is no interest rate change, then there will be a big selloff. If there is an interest rate change, then it's already priced in.

As for USDCHF still being a major, I think it's based on volume. I tried looking for a pie chart showing Forex volume. I could not find one.

I think the daily pip variance is still much higher with CHF. Based on Alpari data, this is what I calculated. The numbers represent the average high-low, aka pip variance on the daily.
AUDUSD 66.4
EURUSD 95.9
GBPUSD 137.3
USDCAD 90.4
USDCHF 107.9
USDJPY 91.7
I believe that you are not calculating this correctly.

If you quote USDCHF as CHFUSD (like how most of the majors are quoted against the US Dollar including AUD) you may find that the high-low, aka pip variance on the daily is infact lower.

You also have to take into account the pip value of USDCHF which is around 19.75% lower than the pip value of AUDUSD, EURUSD, GBPUSD and even NZDUSD.
  • #5
  • Jun 16, 2007 5:21am Jun 16, 2007 5:21am
Price Action For UsdChf
Attached Image
  • #6
  • Jun 16, 2007 8:19am Jun 16, 2007 8:19am
Nice chart goodthings.

Here is a 4hr chart of the usdchf indicating potential support zone below price.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf4hr.jpg Size: 39 KB


Cheers
SK
  • #7
  • Jun 17, 2007 6:54am Jun 17, 2007 6:54am
My opinion
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.jpg Size: 46 KB
More on my Blog...
  • #8
  • Jun 17, 2007 10:22am Jun 17, 2007 10:22am
Quoting treberk
Personally, I think that usdchf should be relegated from the perception that it is one of the world's 4 major currencies.

For example, there are more trade announcments here on FF about the Australian Dollar than the Swiss Franc. Even now, the Australian Dollar is stronger than the Swiss Franc.

It seems that the Swiss Fanc is more affected by what the Euro does and carry traders than any of its own economic activities.


Even if the Swiss do infact hike interest rates it may be a case of "buy the rumour sell the fact" just like it was this month when the ECB raised interest rates.
WOW. That was a funny post. where did you get your smarts from?
  • #9
  • Jun 18, 2007 10:13am Jun 18, 2007 10:13am
Quoting dunningduke
WOW. That was a funny post. where did you get your smarts from?
Sorry, what are "smarts"?
  • #10
  • Jun 19, 2007 8:59pm Jun 19, 2007 8:59pm
These are statitical probabilities of how the usdchf retraces to weekly fib levels.
Attached Image
  • #11
  • Jun 19, 2007 9:01pm Jun 19, 2007 9:01pm
A couple of weeks ago the UsdChf made a big run and did not retrace to any of the weekly fib levels that week are the week after. This was the first time it had not retraced to atleast the 23.6 fib level.
Attached Image
  • #12
  • Jun 19, 2007 9:02pm Jun 19, 2007 9:02pm
UsdChf daily range of motion (ROM)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UsdChf Daily Range.jpg Size: 23 KB
  • #13
  • Jun 19, 2007 9:04pm Jun 19, 2007 9:04pm
UsdChf (DAR) daily average range
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UsdChf Daily Range Average.jpg Size: 19 KB
  • #14
  • Jun 19, 2007 9:06pm Jun 19, 2007 9:06pm
The pink line is the DAR for the year and yellow line is the DAR for the past 20 days. The blue line shows the daily (ROM) for the past 20 days.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UsdChf Daily Chart.jpg Size: 22 KB
  • #15
  • Jun 19, 2007 9:08pm Jun 19, 2007 9:08pm
UsdChf (WAR) Weekly average range
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UsdChf Weekly Range Average.jpg Size: 21 KB
  • #16
  • Jun 19, 2007 9:10pm Jun 19, 2007 9:10pm
The pink line shows the yearly (WAR) and the blue line shows the weekly (ROM) for the year.

The 150 pip (WAR) is where it seems to hit most of the time.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UsdChf Weekly Range Chart.jpg Size: 17 KB
  • #17
  • Jun 20, 2007 8:14am Jun 20, 2007 8:14am
Currently Short on USD/CHF since it moved past the 1st lower pivot at 1.2387. It's now hanging around 1.2365 with appears to be the fib on GoodThings Chart from noon today. Any thoughts? Here's hoping it is heading south.
  • #18
  • Jun 20, 2007 12:10pm Jun 20, 2007 12:10pm
I have a short from 390, this is one of the ones I'm testing for learning longer term trades. Which is still new to me, anything much over a day. Looks pretty good to me so far, my first area of interest is in the 331 range to determine if it still has momentum after that it's the 280 range. My stop is pretty small just above 400 so I can't lose much if I'm wrong. The last few have retraced to the 50% mark, but there's some good support from previous highs in the 330 area, so that's my likely target.
  • #19
  • Jun 20, 2007 12:29pm Jun 20, 2007 12:29pm
Quoting DigitalFX
Currently Short on USD/CHF since it moved past the 1st lower pivot at 1.2387. It's now hanging around 1.2365 with appears to be the fib on GoodThings Chart from noon today. Any thoughts? Here's hoping it is heading south.
USDCHF is on a moderate upward trend in the short and medium term, and has hit fibos and 2 standard devs from the commonly used 50 mean. I am long with a 20 pip SL. TP at 1.2463.

Good luck.
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #20
  • Jun 21, 2007 1:42am Jun 21, 2007 1:42am
CHF trade balance came out shortly ago with good numbers of
1.26B to the positive. Interest rates are up and good possibility of increases in the near future. Does anyone know why it shouldn't be picking up value against against the dollar?
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