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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #14,921
  • Jun 14, 2007 12:57pm Jun 14, 2007 12:57pm
hmmm... though the downtrend goes on... i doubt it will go south of 1.9670 once more... just wondering if anyone started to feel an uptrend? although it is obvious that tomorrows biig datas are going to show us a way... anyway my bias for today that the cable might go up to 1.9734
  • #14,922
  • Jun 14, 2007 1:34pm Jun 14, 2007 1:34pm
it's me again, with another daily chart. let's take a look at it:
first, see how nice are 10 (red), 20 (yellow) and 50 (blue) ema arranged: price below 10, 10 below 20, 20 below 50.
second, macd has crossed below 0.
now, could you point out on this daily chart how did you get that uptrend feeling?

p.s. for some reason, i can't attach the photo. see the chart here

Quoting Alfa159
hmmm... though the downtrend goes on... i doubt it will go south of 1.9670 once more... just wondering if anyone started to feel an uptrend? although it is obvious that tomorrows biig datas are going to show us a way... anyway my bias for today that the cable might go up to 1.9734
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gud1.jpg Size: 52 KB
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #14,923
  • Jun 14, 2007 1:47pm Jun 14, 2007 1:47pm
hey there scrat... Thanx for the graph... my stuidies are almost like yours. They are mostly showing that the downtrend will go.. Also i did not get any feeling of an uptrend... I just wanted to know IF anyone got that feeling.. Seems like downtrend goes on...
Very nervous about tomorrows datas though. However I am somehow confident that the datas will be in favour of US. they are doing good recently.
  • #14,924
  • Jun 14, 2007 5:14pm Jun 14, 2007 5:14pm
Looking at daily charts trying to apply price action looks like

EUR/USD is turning bullish
USD/CHF - turning Bearish
GBP/JPY - Bullish
EUR/JPY - Bullish
Gold - turning Bullish

In relation to their correlation with cable, this would mean in theory a bullish cable tomorrow. I don't think I will be trading cable as I much prefer other currencies at the moment.

On a fundamental side looking at the 8 $ news reports tomorrow could well be a nightmare for traders. Bumpy rides ahead me thinks.
  • #14,925
  • Jun 14, 2007 10:38pm Jun 14, 2007 10:38pm
  •  CWH
  • | Joined Feb 2007 | Status: United We Buy, Divided We Sell | 249 Posts
I really really feel that Cable needs to stay above 1.9800 to get a solid footing before a second assault on April's high of 2.0130.
"If, at first, you don't succeed, try, try, try again" - Winston Churchill
  • #14,926
  • Jun 14, 2007 11:23pm Jun 14, 2007 11:23pm
Quoting CWH
I really really feel that Cable needs to stay above 1.9800 to get a solid footing before a second assault on April's high of 2.0130.

Did you mean 1.9700 because it hasn't been above 1.9800 in a week.

What so important about 1.9800 ?
  • #14,927
  • Edited 11:52pm Jun 14, 2007 11:31pm | Edited 11:52pm
  •  CWH
  • | Joined Feb 2007 | Status: United We Buy, Divided We Sell | 249 Posts
Quoting SunTrader
Did you mean 1.9700 because it hasn't been above 1.9800 in a week. What so important about 1.9800 ?
That's because it hasn't got a stable footing & it'll continue up & down btw 1.9800 & 1.9600. Above 1.98, a retest of April's high; below 1.96, further down but not within a few weeks' time.

It's range trading for now & until the US CPI is released @ 8.30 EST, it will continue within tide range.

That a look at the following report by Market News International:-

Cable Tech 14 Jun '07 11.36pm
Choppy trading above previous low at 1.9623 likely.
Res3 : 1.9836 (62% of 1.9968-1.9623)
Res2 : 1.9793 (8 Jun high)
Res3 : 1.9765 (13 Jun high)
Current Level : 1.9703
Sup3 : 1.9678 (13 Jun low)
Sup2 : 1.9651 (11 Jun low)
Sup1 : 1.9623 (8 Jun low)
Commentary : Only break of 1.9741 resistance signals retreat from week's high at 1.9784 has ended erratic rise from 1.9623 to retrace recent decline from 1.9968 then resumes for retest of 1.9784 then 1.9836 (61.8% of 1.9968-1.9623). Firm break of 1.9651/58 extends major fall from year's 2.0130 high to 1.9600 though as move viewed as correction of M-T intermediate upmove from 1.9185 downside likely limited to 1.9571 (61.8% of 1.9968-1.9623 from 1.9784).
www.trendsetterfx.com
"If, at first, you don't succeed, try, try, try again" - Winston Churchill
  • #14,928
  • Jun 14, 2007 11:51pm Jun 14, 2007 11:51pm
Well if it does get above 1.9800 which to me is just another number, it will need to take out 1.9964 area which is the most recent swing high 6/5/07.

This swing high was a lower high off the 4/18/07 top. And last friday's low 6/8/07 was a lower swing low than the previous low 5/21/07.

So on a short term basis (intraday) momentum is slightly up, but since the April high momentum is still down.

I am thinking we will break 1.9600 and move down to 1.9300 at least.
  • #14,929
  • Jun 15, 2007 6:04am Jun 15, 2007 6:04am
Good morning traders, are we ready for some fireworks today???
  • #14,930
  • Jun 15, 2007 6:06am Jun 15, 2007 6:06am
Quoting Turtle
Good morning traders, are we ready for some fireworks today???
Hopefully...

Quote
Looking forward, we have the US consumer price index, an important gauge of inflation. Given the recent breakout in 10 year US Treasury bond yields on increased expectations of inflation, the market may be particularly sensitive to this number. For now it seems dollar buyers are edging out sellers as USD/JPY rallies and EUR/USD is unable to mount a significant bounce. On Thursday US Core Producer Price Index came in at .2%, in line with expectations. Today’s Consumer Price Index could have a significant impact on future expectations of US interest rates.
  • #14,931
  • Jun 15, 2007 6:47am Jun 15, 2007 6:47am
i have my short position open for the last 2 days... didnt want to close it. I am really counting on good data releases from US. I better find a good SL before the datas release. Today is going to be a really good or a really bad day for me. I wonder how my heart will keep on with this when I get older.
  • #14,932
  • Jun 15, 2007 6:52am Jun 15, 2007 6:52am
Quoting Alfa159
i have my short position open for the last 2 days... didnt want to close it. I am really counting on good data releases from US. I better find a good SL before the datas release. Today is going to be a really good or a really bad day for me. I wonder how my heart will keep on with this when I get older.
If you're holding some 50 pips, you're in a good position. If news come out USD-negative you get out and that will be your week. Nothing to worry about. But, imo, it's worth the shot keeping it in. In CPI comes very strong you will see some nice 100+ P/L fast.
  • #14,933
  • Jun 15, 2007 6:56am Jun 15, 2007 6:56am
mattar of fact i had opened the position at 1.9690... It was my bad that I did not close the position when the price went down to 1.9660, cause I had a feeling of a high 1.9500s test. Now i am in -10 pips... I will close my position the moment i see the CPI bad... Stop loss at 1.9740 in case. Yet again I would be so angry if the price goes above 1.9740 and than comes back lower again... Because some other impotant datas will be released 1 hour later than CPI
  • #14,934
  • Jun 15, 2007 6:58am Jun 15, 2007 6:58am
Quoting Alfa159
i have my short position open for the last 2 days... didnt want to close it. I am really counting on good data releases from US. I better find a good SL before the datas release. Today is going to be a really good or a really bad day for me. I wonder how my heart will keep on with this when I get older.
I'm in the same boat and looking for strong CPI data....hang in there.
  • #14,935
  • Edited 7:14am Jun 15, 2007 7:02am | Edited 7:14am
Quoting Alfa159
mattar of fact i had opened the position at 1.9690... It was my bad that I did not close the position when the price went down to 1.9660, cause I had a feeling of a high 1.9500s test. Now i am in -10 pips... I will close my position the moment i see the CPI bad... Stop loss at 1.9740 in case. Yet again I would be so angry if the price goes above 1.9740 and than comes back lower again... Because some other impotant datas will be released 1 hour later than CPI
Then it's different. I was holding a +5 in Euro and jumped off ahead of the news, I was long though.... Decided to trade the news instead.... And I have no idea on how the market will react today... Been quite for many hours...
  • #14,936
  • Jun 15, 2007 7:05am Jun 15, 2007 7:05am
I am afraid big boys will still be busy carrying boxes with cash between stock and bond markets today. They will be back to forex after they use up all their ideas with stocks and bonds.

As far as cable goes, I am afraid it is aching to go up even if the news will be dollar positive, although with the amount of the data coming out in 30 minutes there probably won't be any clear cut direction. I am expecting the swing trading the third day in a row, although hoping for either rally or sell off, cause if it will be there, it should be very sizeble considering such consolidation around 9700.

I think 9760 and 9640 is where I am going to place Stop Buy and Sell orders for today but I am also planning to catch the train closer to 9700 area when(if) it starts to run away after the news.
  • #14,937
  • Jun 15, 2007 7:09am Jun 15, 2007 7:09am
Quoting x3m
I am afraid big boys will still be busy carrying boxes with cash between stock and bond markets today. They will be back to forex after they use up all their ideas with stocks and bonds.

As far as cable goes, I am afraid it is aching to go up even if the news will be dollar positive, although with the amount of the data coming out in 30 minutes there probably won't be any clear cut direction. I am expecting the swing trading the third day in a row, although hoping for either rally or sell off, cause it it will be there, it should be very sizeble considering such consolidation around 9700.

I think 9760 and 9640 is where I am going to place Stop Buy and Sell orders for today but I am also planning to catch the train closer to 9700 area when(if) it starts to run away after the news.
I am hunting for sell around 1.9715
I think the cable will move down after the news.
We will see.
Good luck to all.
  • #14,938
  • Jun 15, 2007 7:14am Jun 15, 2007 7:14am
Quoting x3m
I am afraid big boys will still be busy carrying boxes with cash between stock and bond markets today. They will be back to forex after they use up all their ideas with stocks and bonds.

As far as cable goes, I am afraid it is aching to go up even if the news will be dollar positive, although with the amount of the data coming out in 30 minutes there probably won't be any clear cut direction. I am expecting the swing trading the third day in a row, although hoping for either rally or sell off, cause if it will be there, it should be very sizeble considering such consolidation around 9700.

I think 9760 and 9640 is where I am going to place Stop Buy and Sell orders for today but I am also planning to catch the train closer to 9700 area when(if) it starts to run away after the news.

what you say makes sense... Because the last two days although US had really good datas, the dollar barely went up a bit and than came back to where it was before the news were released... However I am aiming for june 8th low of 1.9620 if the news are very good for US. Though I doubt right now that it will brake that level. Probably will go back to high 1.9700s perhaps. I cant count on the downtrend of cable lately...
  • #14,939
  • Jun 15, 2007 7:15am Jun 15, 2007 7:15am
Quoting cesarnc
Then it's different. I was holding a +5 in Euro and jumped off ahead of the news, I was long though.... Decided to trade the news instead.... And I have no idea on how the market will react today... Been quite for many hours...
lol I just got out of my long e/u as well, wasn't shaping up to hot. I still have my eye on it though.

Quoting x3m
I am afraid it is aching to go up even if the news will be dollar positive, although with the amount of the data coming out in 30 minutes there probably won't be any clear cut direction.
I'm long off the 3/4/07 trend line at 675, expected more by now, but I have a tight stop to ensure some profit if the news is bad for cable.
  • #14,940
  • Jun 15, 2007 7:19am Jun 15, 2007 7:19am
Let's get ready. Usually the xerox lady that makes copies of the reports makes a call to her broker 5-10 minutes before the data release.
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