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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #791,801
  • Nov 21, 2023 5:51am Nov 21, 2023 5:51am
Quoting Fardeen1209
What driving the sentiment for GBP/USD Is it FOMC meeting or Autumn Statement? Last year, Lizz Truss f*cked up so badly and iconic Monday that will stuck in my Core Memory. Some economists expecting TAx cut as planned, some blah blah. What got my attention is, Economic Forecast by OBR. Let start with what BOE consider acceptable as its economic outlook. Couple BOE officlals' speeches and NOV economic Projection - project UK GDP to stagnant at 0% for 2024 Which slightly missed the -ve territory. So BOE accept a Stagnation with Inflation coming down...
The last thing that any country on the planet needs is tax cuts for the rich! Spending cuts, absolutely! Ending foolish wars and support for foolish wars in other countries, without question.
  • #791,802
  • Nov 21, 2023 5:51am Nov 21, 2023 5:51am
Gbpcad short tp 1.71450. Long at tp
  • #791,803
  • Nov 21, 2023 5:52am Nov 21, 2023 5:52am
Quoting Fardeen1209
What driving the sentiment for GBP/USD Is it FOMC meeting or Autumn Statement? Last year, Lizz Truss f*cked up so badly and iconic Monday that will stuck in my Core Memory. Some economists expecting TAx cut as planned, some blah blah. What got my attention is, Economic Forecast by OBR. Let start with what BOE consider acceptable as its economic outlook. Couple BOE officlals' speeches and NOV economic Projection - project UK GDP to stagnant at 0% for 2024 Which slightly missed the -ve territory. So BOE accept a Stagnation with Inflation coming down...
Base on your interpretation, what trade idea does this present to you?
This is one investment in a bucket of thousands!
  • #791,804
  • Nov 21, 2023 5:54am Nov 21, 2023 5:54am
Quoting Fardeen1209
What driving the sentiment for GBP/USD Is it FOMC meeting or Autumn Statement? Last year, Lizz Truss f*cked up so badly and iconic Monday that will stuck in my Core Memory. Some economists expecting TAx cut as planned, some blah blah. What got my attention is, Economic Forecast by OBR. Let start with what BOE consider acceptable as its economic outlook. Couple BOE officlals' speeches and NOV economic Projection - project UK GDP to stagnant at 0% for 2024 Which slightly missed the -ve territory. So BOE accept a Stagnation with Inflation coming down...
Hi. Uk's OBR is almost always notoriously wrong lol! Uk and U.s entering election cycles in 2024 (is the U.s ever out of one?) so likely we will start to see inducements from both sides, which almost always involve spending/spending promises. Russia/Ukraine, Israel/Hamas both contained and factored in for now, unless the facts on the ground change.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #791,805
  • Edited 6:31am Nov 21, 2023 6:00am | Edited 6:31am
Quoting Headland
{quote} Hi. Uk's OBR is almost always notoriously wrong lol! Uk and U.s entering election cycles in 2024 (is the U.s ever out of one?) so likely we will start to see inducements from both sides, which almost always involve spending/spending promises. Russia/Ukraine, Israel/Hamas both contained and factored in for now, unless the facts on the ground change.

So now why would the US government consider tax cuts for the rich in an election cycle?
It wouldn't have anything to do with political contributions for the candidates to fund their campaigns so that they can get elected would it?
It has to be for the benefit of the country doesn't it?
  • #791,806
  • Nov 21, 2023 6:00am Nov 21, 2023 6:00am
What's going to be 1.2480 or 1.2580
  • #791,807
  • Nov 21, 2023 6:03am Nov 21, 2023 6:03am
Fomc minutes are just that they very rarely provide a spike so any data / event in waiting I’d put my money on autumn statement. If tax cuts are in play for anyone I can’t see markets lapping it up .. last years statement was a balls up to the highest order in fact caused the pound to drop to near parity which we are still paying for. Mike Hunt is a bit clever and wont drop a bombshell like Kwazi. However it is election year in 2024 and the nastys I mean Tory’s need voters so anything to get a few more to help from until recently was a bitch slapping in the happening. This could be a very tight election so all parties are looking for voters.
Insane in the Brain..
  • #791,808
  • Nov 21, 2023 6:04am Nov 21, 2023 6:04am
Here comes GBPUSD laughing again:
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This is one investment in a bucket of thousands!
  • #791,809
  • Nov 21, 2023 6:04am Nov 21, 2023 6:04am
Quoting dantpm
{quote} So now why would the US government consider tax cuts for the rich in an election cycle? It wouldn't have anything to do with tax deductible political contributions for the candidates to fund their campaigns so that they can get elected would it? It has to be for the benefit of the country doesn't it?
in the uk it’s pull in a few more voters as tides have turned a bit and as I mentioned above will be a tight election
Insane in the Brain..
  • #791,810
  • Nov 21, 2023 6:06am Nov 21, 2023 6:06am
Quoting BeeTogether
{quote} in the uk it’s pull in a few more voters as tides have turned a bit and as I mentioned above will be a tight election
Typically tax cuts impact very few people. Probably not enough to swing an election. Somehow this gets lost on the candidates.
  • #791,811
  • Nov 21, 2023 6:13am Nov 21, 2023 6:13am
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yes yes yes
  • #791,812
  • Nov 21, 2023 6:13am Nov 21, 2023 6:13am
Quoting Headland
{quote} If I may weigh in on this, in the hope that this long-running feud may finally be over - for the sake of the thread, Pat, you do not post all your trades in real-time, fact. (The example recent Gbpusd long trade of yours WG gave is a case in point.) There is of course no compulsion on you or anyone else posting here to do so. You do however contribute a lot to this thread. Fact. You are not though 'lily-white' and have a questionable back history regarding some of the other profiles you have used, and stories you have posted. Fact. Please...
Do you honestly trust this is going to stop ?

NEVER.

Simple.. to use the button and send such people out of this thread.

Seen/ Read / Heard enough of this nonsense.

In the meantime, I made a complaint yesterday to TWEE, in line with his advice.

Hope some investigation is done.

Remember, he questions if at all TWEE exists !!

I sent that post too to TWEE
Intraday only.
  • #791,813
  • Nov 21, 2023 6:21am Nov 21, 2023 6:21am
Quoting dantpm
{quote} Typically tax cuts impact very few people. Probably not enough to swing an election. Somehow this gets lost on the candidates.
from what I can see it’s trying everything to avoid a crushing defeat and then see who can provide a better coalition
Insane in the Brain..
  • #791,814
  • Edited 6:36am Nov 21, 2023 6:22am | Edited 6:36am
Quoting JourneyLife
{quote} Base on your interpretation, what trade idea does this present to you?
Hi, we need to see the overall situation, not only focus on only one as GBP/USD consist of 2 currencies, hence 2 economies.

With FOMC around the corner, we need to see how Powell speeches will be absorbed by the market.
We might see Hawkish Powell which i'm expecting, since the SWAP market are price in for FED Rate CUT too soon, while FED officials want to hold the current Rate much longer than anticipated.
So tonight we might see a dovish disappointment, which means hawkish Powell- hence lift Dollar.


As for UK autumn effect for 2023 projection since we are only 1 month away from ending 2023. SO all focus will be on projection of 2024.
Given the current bank rate already quite high for the current strength of UK GDP, a forecast lower than 1.8% would be suitable.

However, OBR always fucked up on its first release. When it starts revising on the following months, then you see its revised forecast becomes more allign with current economic outlook.

Now, just relying fundamental, proves not to be the most effective way of trading.
We need to match Technical with fundamental to get the best result possible.

TA
Daily STructure
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A HH already produced. After a HH i would expect a HL.
PRice is currently at a level which i define as the great wall of China. So from this level, it is high possibility to see the end of this trend wave and start of counter-trend (corrective)wave, based on my system and current expertise.

Keep going in the depth,
We can also see couple of 4hr Bearish sign candlestick
From this level
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Now you can see better, that the Dovish disappointment and a lower than 1.8% UK GDP new forecast might produced this counter-trend leg till HL

EDIT:
Quoting Fardeen1209
{quote} This is why we wait for confirmation Just because we can do anything anytime does not means we should be reckless and do something because we need to do something or we are able to do something. {image} If we did something, we would stuck in our Shorts, while now if we get a confirmation from this new high, we will have a better entry with lower risk. Damn, took me a while to understand this. Long time ago, i would already stopped out at least 3 4 times, trying to catch the top
To get the best entry we wait for confirmation from Price Action itself, while we already have our directional bias in our mind.

However, it worth noting, that all these together is a setup. and for a setup to play out is always 50/50 because nobody knows what the future price Action will look like.
So we always calculate our risk, and placed our stop loss. In case, we wrongly formed our directional bias, our Stop loss saved us from drastic loss on our account.

Hope this put you one step forward, journey life.
More time in the market, does not mean you trade better!
  • #791,815
  • Nov 21, 2023 6:22am Nov 21, 2023 6:22am
Quoting Whale
So boring
Due to my bonding to EUR/GBP I can tell you that this kind of PA reminded me of EUR/GBP when GBP/USD was the main driver.

What I want to say: PA of GBP/USD is (also) driven strongly by other currencies,- at least currently. That is very seldom because the impulse most times start on mainly GBP/USD for other currencies. You can see that on the up and downs today in short time and short moves, looking like no making sense.
I saw that a lot on EUR/GBP when GBP/USD and EUR/USD made the market.
  • #791,816
  • Nov 21, 2023 6:24am Nov 21, 2023 6:24am
Quoting Moty
{image}
thats still unbreak structure mate, tske care.
I usually sell at this poin, but i stop now
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10000% Wannabe . -$3000 & -$4000
Gold Recovery All Time Profit: -$3,961
  • #791,817
  • Nov 21, 2023 6:29am Nov 21, 2023 6:29am
Gild short 1988
  • #791,818
  • Nov 21, 2023 6:32am Nov 21, 2023 6:32am
closed gbpcad shorts
  • #791,819
  • Nov 21, 2023 6:32am Nov 21, 2023 6:32am
Quoting navk
{quote} Do you honestly trust this is going to stop ? NEVER. Simple.. to use the button and send such people out of this thread. Seen/ Read / Heard enough of this nonsense. In the meantime, I made a complaint yesterday to TWEE, in line with his advice. Hope some investigation is done. Remember, he questions if at all TWEE exists !! I sent that post too to TWEE
Hi. I don't know whether it is going to stop. I and most in this thread I am sure, hope so. Perhaps there are those here who just like disruption for it's own sake? I don't know. I certainly don't think Twee/site moderation has been strong enough, and this should change. He/they have allowed this to go on for week after week, page after page, month after month - it's ridiculous. If it were me, (I don't want it - even if I was asked,) I would rule the place with an iron fist, strong but fair, with the same rules for everyone, but I am guessing (only guessing) Twee/FF have their commercial interests to think of too, and traffic is traffic? You are welcome to send this post to Twee too but I suspect he will see it anyway.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #791,820
  • Nov 21, 2023 6:33am Nov 21, 2023 6:33am
I am seeing first time some reistance in GU between 2442/2454
Intraday only.
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