Cable Update (GBPUSD)

Already posted some things from institutional banks....

audcad up big I also mentioned this yesterday as a trade idea.

One bank is targeting the weekly kijun (1.2590). So, watch that area for a rejection.

Let them open up their hearts. I would like to see who I will be dealing with in the future, If need be!

I'll do that, thanks! I'm mainly a medium-term trader, intraday trading consumed my mental resources way too much since I also have a dayjob. I tend to look at trend direction and do my trading mainly on 4H and 1D charts.

hmmmm interesting!!!

I trade on monthly, weekly and daily charts, and I sit in front of the screen all day long because I also invest in stocks. No need to trade small timeframes.

last night another sl hit.

I entered EU short right now.
waiting for GU setup

I am sorry but I can't go any further with you glued at the heads. We wont understand each other.

Let's leave it at that, thanks.

Better we focus on our jobs.

People will USE the buttons.

I am never used to button...now I am also learning to use button.

changing the subject cause that shit was boring as hell earlier LOL

its always been my contention that computers and the incredible abundance of stupid indicators used by lazy ass traders to develope EA's so they can sit around and jerk off all day while the computer trades for them is the main reason why the failure rate among beginners is as high as 95%...the old timers a 100 years ago made fortunes drawing their charts at home on the kitchen tables using just a pencil and graph paper with the previous days stock prices printed in the newspapers....yes you gen z'ers...newspapers used to print stock prices LOL

so ive been researching and have stumbled on to some stuff LOL

This is a brief study done during the first internet bubble, when online brokerages gained popularity and day trading first because a viable option for regular people. The intent of the study was to determine the overall profitability of day trading in light of its contemporary rising popularity.
The researchers were able to study the trades of 324 day traders from February 1998 to October 1999. Note that this was a time period where the S&P500 gained 30%, and the Nasdaq was up over 100%. Findings and highlights:

1. Of the 324 traders for whom they had data, 36% made a profit over the period of the study, while 64% made a loss.
2. Only 20% of the traders in the study made more than $5,000 over the time period.
3. Total commissions for each round-trip trade were $30. Researchers determined that on average (across all investors) day trades were profitable gross (pre-fees), but were negative net (after fees).
4. Researchers found a statistically significant correlation between the performance of day traders and the price movement of the Nasdaq exchange, indicating that traders had a preference to trade long positions in tech stocks. Again, the study was during a period where the Nasdaq more than doubled - so the result that only ~1/3rd of day traders made any profit at all makes that result seem quite a bit worse.

The study concludes:
The day trading industry, and numerous books and advertisements about day trading, actively promote the idea that day trading is an easy route to wealth and early retirement. This idea has led to widespread interest in day trading and the entry of many novice day traders. The fact that at least 64% of the day traders in this study lost money suggests that it is more difficult to be a profitable day trader than the industry maintains.


In 2011 the SEC was seeking industry comment on whether/if/how they should further impose regulation of firms and processes that allow retail investors to day trade FX securities. The comments received by the SEC can be found here. Included in the comments was the linked report above by Philadelphia Financial Management of San Francisco, compiled from the available disclosures made by retail FX trading firms.
The report is especially damning of the retail FX trading firms of the era, which were flagrantly taking advantage of their customers - but much of the data and lessons is applicable to day traders in other markets. Some of the highlights are below. Note that this refers to retail FX traders from around 2008-2011.

1. Around 70% of retail FX day traders lost money each quarter. This number was highly consistent across the 12 FX brokers studied.
2. The average retail FX day trader had an account balance of less than $5,000, and traded twice per day.
3. These day trader accounts were often funded via credit cards (e.g., 81% of new accounts at FXCM, 41% of new accounts at Gain Capital).
4. Day trading clients of Gain Capital saw quarterly results ranging from negative 34% (worst quarter) to negative 27% (best quarter) in 2009-10. Comparatively, clients of Charles Schwab (not a day trading firm) saw performance of negative 7% to positive 9% in the same period.
5. Retail FX trading costs were very substantially higher than that of buy-and-hold investors at other firms.
6. When executing trades, some retail FX firms inform the market maker of the client's level of sophistication, which then directly affects the quote received. I.e. ("this person will be too dumb to know you're giving them an awful price on this trade.")
7. Quoting from the report: "In the retail FX market, different investors are given different quotes and institutional investors receive far superior quotes than retail. For example the revenue per value executed at Gain Capital is 10x higher for retail clients than for institutional clients."

seems like the failure rate increases as computer use does in trading LOL

now its up to 95% mainly cause of the prop firm explosion the last few years and a new kind of sucker being born by using even more crazy ass indicators and the fact the props try to fleece their pigeons out of their 100 dollar challenges

heres some more shit i found

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/...aj.v59.n6.2578

A 2011 study of Taiwanese day traders over a 15-year period, from 1992 to 2006, showed only slightly better results. Day trading is popular in Taiwan. In an average year, about 360,000 Taiwanese individuals engage in day trading, according to the authors.
Their conclusion: "Consistent with prior work on the performance of individual investors, the vast majority of day traders lose money." They do note that a small group (about 15%) do earn higher returns net of fees, but that "some outperformance would be expected by sheer luck."
A later version of the paper published in 2013 concluded: "Less than 1% of the day trader population is able to predictably and reliably earn positive abnormal returns net of fees." https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/20/atte...ose-money.html

We also looked at the five- and 10-year business failure rates, which compared March 2022 and March 2017 and March 2022 and March 2012, respectively. At those points, 48.4% and 65.1% of businesses fail, respectively.

https://www.lendingtree.com/business.../failure-rate/


so even businesses when theyre fully capitalized fail at up to a 65% rate so is it any wonder that some shmuck with a 100 dollars fails a prop challenge or a real broker account at a 95% clip?

its very hard to find old studies on google

i wanted to find stuff from the 1950's to 1980's before the computer revolution so if anyone else is interested in history and would like to help...please keep looking cause i hit a dead end i think...studies i referenced were the oldest i could find

seems like the closer the study happens to the present the higher the failure rate LOL

This is a brief study done during the first internet bubble, when online brokerages gained popularity and day trading first because a viable option for regular people. The intent of the study was to determine the overall profitability of day trading in light of its contemporary rising popularity.
The researchers were able to study the trades of 324 day traders from February 1998 to October 1999. Note that this was a time period where the S&P500 gained 30%, and the Nasdaq was up over 100%. Findings and highlights:

1. Of the 324 traders for whom they had data, 36% made a profit over the period of the study, while 64% made a loss.
2. Only 20% of the traders in the study made more than $5,000 over the time period.
3. Total commissions for each round-trip trade were $30. Researchers determined that on average (across all investors) day trades were profitable gross (pre-fees), but were negative net (after fees).
4. Researchers found a statistically significant correlation between the performance of day traders and the price movement of the Nasdaq exchange, indicating that traders had a preference to trade long positions in tech stocks. Again, the study was during a period where the Nasdaq more than doubled - so the result that only ~1/3rd of day traders made any profit at all makes that result seem quite a bit worse.

this is the oldest one i could find and as you can see it was just a 64% failure rate...of course it was before everybody had a computer

Our jobs here is a subjective matter! People have different ambitions here.
Let me spill alittle secret, my job here is to share ideas and opportunities with like minds. As I am sharing on a public forum, it's quit important to note afew people that may be a hinderance to my success.

Your job is a very heavy burden to be carried alone, it is wearing you down I know but I would like to let you know that I appreciate your efforts to peace and prosperity. One day there will be peace, I believe!

morning ! it looks determined to get the target up without any correction . within channel . limit down 2523 . tl support 2517, earliest confirmation failure top 2511. nearest target bull 2547 as minimum breaks , next 2745 , in between resistance is round number 2600.

update : early limit down for up broken . next channel supports to deal with 2523/20 now. anyway only channel and extreme craziness may save from breakout !

@Fardeen1209, Gold looks to be trending more in the direction of GU today and interestingly close to your $2000 threshold!

It's about funding. There was a time when not every dumb fuck with pocket money from mum could martingale their account into the ground, when putting on a trade required actual, serious, levels of money. It's no big surprise that people with a better economic situation fair better.

Success breeds success.

Access to computers coincides with lower monetary barriers to entry. It's not inherently the computer itself, nor the dearth of indicators etc. It's that the Moty's of the world can put on a trade from their cardboard box. The nonsense that goes with the online trading does keep the dim entertained, but it's the person not the computer that is the issue.

Would you put the Moty's in charge of your million dollar business and expect it to thrive? Of course not. Same thing here.