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USD/CHF

  • #6,281
  • Nov 13, 2023 8:03am Nov 13, 2023 8:03am
Quoting mtakoo
A drop of 100 to 150 pips is very likely for the new week.
on the contrary, because a bullish breakout happened in the H1 and the moving's arrangement took place in an upward direction. We have to wait for a small correction so that it can be entered for buy.
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  • #6,282
  • Nov 15, 2023 12:50am Nov 15, 2023 12:50am
Greetings Forex Factory traders! Sharing a compelling trade idea on USD/CHF
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  • #6,283
  • Nov 15, 2023 1:56am Nov 15, 2023 1:56am
Quoting me_sa245
Hi Considering the tight compression created by the moving group in this area of the market, we expect a good directional movement in the coming week. Good luck {image}
As we witnessed, the moving average compressing pattern worked well and the market started a powerful directional movement.

Quoting me_sa245
{quote} on the contrary, because a bullish breakout happened in the H1 and the moving's arrangement took place in an upward direction. We have to wait for a small correction so that it can be entered for buy. {image}
Although initially a fake breakout misled us in identifying the trend of this expected movement, yesterday morning we were able to identify the main trend in smaller time frames.

Good luck
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  • #6,284
  • Nov 16, 2023 8:05pm Nov 16, 2023 8:05pm
Hello! I am new here; however, I have been trading for a while. Allow me to give my 2 cents on USDCHF.

Here is my technical trading plan for USD/CHF:
On a weekly chart attached, ( https://www.tradingview.com/x/XBoBoTig/ ) we can see that USD/CHF from July 2023 to October 2023, this pair rallied and created a new high. From that time, the price hit a "window" of resistance was created on the week of October 30, 2023. Consequently, this is the location where a lot of volume-transactions occurred, according to volume fixed profile. Then, the price proceeded to retrace about a 50% of the July-October 2003 run.

If we look furthermore, we can see that from August to September 2023, a "window" of support was created, and this is where price is currently sitting. This area is also in confluence with horizontal support formed from April - May 2023. Also, of note, is the current, weekly, double wave structure that began from October to this week of November 16, 2023. It could be the ending of a muted wave around 0.8882 to 0.8820. This lines of in confluence with a 50% to 61.8% Fibonacci confluence. However, if this area of support is broken, then the next level of weekly support with volume is around 0.8775, which is in confluence with a 61.8% to 76% fib range.

If we scroll down to a daily chart ( https://www.tradingview.com/x/oEySXCO2/ ), I circled that area in focus. What we can see is that the price overshot the average weekly range (I colored it with orange horizontal dots). The probability of the price extending further beyond this range is lowered. November 15 and 16 formed tweezer bottoms with greater volume. This is an anomaly that I am carefully watching. Also of note, is that November 15 and 16 is an a-b-c completion pattern. Also, we can see that the volume fell from the beginning of October until today, which suggests that the bearish fall in USDCHF is coming to an end.

Conclusion: USDCHF presents a buying opportunity for a forex swing trader on a daily/weekly basis.

The Trade:
I am buying USDCHF @ market 0.8888. My stop loss is a conservative one below the weekly low of 0.8560 (This is 325 pip way). If support is broken, I will watch to see if I should add around 0.8775.). I am risking about 0.25% to 0.50% of total balance from entry to the stop loss on this pair.

Psychological State:
This is one investment in a bucket of thousands! I go in with an open mind, a flexible heart and a probabilistic approach to the markets.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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This is one investment in a bucket of thousands!
  • #6,285
  • Nov 17, 2023 8:00pm Nov 17, 2023 8:00pm
I would like to make a slight revision of the daily chart's analysis of USDCHF: https://www.tradingview.com/x/310ZTsG5/
The price was looking bullish until:
(1) Price closed below the "window".
(2) The tweezer bottoms have failed, as price briefly fell below them, but the pattern is no more. There is no longer visible price reaction to go by anymore at this level.

Therefore, I will close and wait for a reaction here or at 0.8822, the 61.8% level. What I like about that level is that it is a 61.8% fib level and a horizontal support on a weekly chart. If no reaction there, then I will wait for a reaction between 0.8770 and 0.8750, the level of the volume control point.

Furthermore, it appears that the US Dollar Index is currently breaking down. This puts the probabilities against this trading plan: https://www.tradingview.com/x/HkI7knnI/

Updated Trade Plan: Close current position and wait for a better reaction @ 0.8822 or between 0.8770 and 0.8750.
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This is one investment in a bucket of thousands!
  • #6,286
  • Nov 17, 2023 10:07pm Nov 17, 2023 10:07pm
Quoting T721
{quote} Looking at something like this for usd/chf before i start scaling in buys --- Looks like it will be a great long Swing trade. hopefully get those lows on friday or early next week imo --- Probably need a bounce up first then drop to target area at that point should have 4hr macd divergence {image}
usd/chf update --- bottom chart has the daily liquidity zone if the 4hr zones fail but looking to buy next week
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  • #6,287
  • Nov 19, 2023 12:56pm Nov 19, 2023 12:56pm
Quoting T721
Quoting T721 {quote} Looking at something like this for usd/chf before i start scaling in buys --- Looks like it will be a great long Swing trade. hopefully get those lows on friday or early next week imo --- Probably need a bounce up first then drop to target area at that point should have 4hr macd divergence {image} usd/chf update --- bottom chart has the daily liquidity zone if the 4hr zones fail but looking to buy next week {image} {image}
Looking good!
This is one investment in a bucket of thousands!
  • #6,288
  • Nov 19, 2023 11:09pm Nov 19, 2023 11:09pm
Quoting T721
Quoting T721 {quote} Looking at something like this for usd/chf before i start scaling in buys --- Looks like it will be a great long Swing trade. hopefully get those lows on friday or early next week imo --- Probably need a bounce up first then drop to target area at that point should have 4hr macd divergence {image} usd/chf update --- bottom chart has the daily liquidity zone if the 4hr zones fail but looking to buy next week {image} {image}
Ready to fly?
In a while.
  • #6,289
  • Nov 20, 2023 6:22am Nov 20, 2023 6:22am
Quoting T721
Quoting T721 {quote} Looking at something like this for usd/chf before i start scaling in buys --- Looks like it will be a great long Swing trade. hopefully get those lows on friday or early next week imo --- Probably need a bounce up first then drop to target area at that point should have 4hr macd divergence {image} usd/chf update --- bottom chart has the daily liquidity zone if the 4hr zones fail but looking to buy next week {image} {image}
Quoting T721
{quote} usd/chf update --- bottom chart has the daily liquidity zone if the 4hr zones fail but looking to buy next week {image} {image}
usd/chf --- i am long from todays low, might still drop slightly lower. if so i will add more --- target green circle area for this trade
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  • #6,290
  • Nov 20, 2023 8:24am Nov 20, 2023 8:24am
I went long, as well.
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This is one investment in a bucket of thousands!
  • #6,291
  • Nov 20, 2023 8:39am Nov 20, 2023 8:39am
I am buying soon as well after we got the 4h engulfing close.It can correct a little bit before we get the next impulse though and I also expect another drop this week so not holding for long term yet.
  • #6,292
  • Nov 22, 2023 2:49am Nov 22, 2023 2:49am
Quoting T721
{quote} Quoting T721 {quote} usd/chf update --- bottom chart has the daily liquidity zone if the 4hr zones fail but looking to buy next week {image} {image} usd/chf --- i am long from todays low, might still drop slightly lower. if so i will add more --- target green circle area for this trade {image}
usd/chf starting to see some action at last
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  • #6,293
  • Dec 13, 2023 3:42pm Dec 13, 2023 3:42pm
Any thoughts about how low this will go?
  • #6,294
  • Dec 16, 2023 3:46am Dec 16, 2023 3:46am
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  • #6,295
  • Dec 21, 2023 11:44pm Dec 21, 2023 11:44pm
Quoting Marekus
{quote} Draws a triangle on daily chart. Looks like a new rising wave. Level 91 will judge.
So we came to the annual minimum of 0.8555. Now is the moment of truth.
  • #6,296
  • Jan 2, 2024 12:46pm Jan 2, 2024 12:46pm
USDCHF buy trade

A buying opportunity on the pair after the price succeeded in breaking the price channels upward.
The price is also trading supported by the weekly pivot level of 0.8440.
The broken channels were retested.
Buy target is below the weekly resistance level 0.8686.
The stop loss level is below the weekly pivot level
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,297
  • Jan 9, 2024 4:08pm Jan 9, 2024 4:08pm
Looks like we'll have to touch bottom below 80
  • #6,298
  • Jan 9, 2024 4:24pm Jan 9, 2024 4:24pm
Quoting Stavros999
Looks like we'll have to touch bottom below 80
now 85.2
we could, but after 88 / 89 ... depending on the spike
  • #6,299
  • Jan 10, 2024 6:00pm Jan 10, 2024 6:00pm
Quoting Stavros999
Looks like we'll have to touch bottom below 80
Why ?
  • #6,300
  • Jan 10, 2024 6:01pm Jan 10, 2024 6:01pm
Quoting aa4fx
{quote} now 85.2 we could, but after 88 / 89 ... depending on the spike
Why ?
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