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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #14,881
  • Jun 13, 2007 10:50am Jun 13, 2007 10:50am
I dont know how to explain this. Everything is pointing down, but then after a while it goes the opposite?Huh? Insist of holding that position.You lose.Then you decided to buy.What the f**k it's going down.(lose again)
What I mean is watch the support/resistance (daily/weekly) very closely, not the news.

Like who's signature that saying "Trend is your friend, of course my friend is unpredictable and unreliable"

The fact is when cable is going up people will do whatever to buy.But when it goes down 50/50 undecided.Saw a downtrend but wont take it, believe to much on news.

Understand?

Quoting Scrat
when everything points down (even news!), who do you think it's going long and drives the price up?
Start trading everyday with a simple mind, and everything seems very clear!
  • #14,882
  • Jun 13, 2007 10:57am Jun 13, 2007 10:57am
and all that rambling ..ur point is??

everybody's shorting right? i thought thats what u complained in the first place about.

news says down, trend says down, so we short g/u!


Quoting Razorstooth
I dont know how to explain this. Everything is pointing down, but then after a while it goes the opposite?Huh? Insist of holding that position.You lose.Then you decided to buy.What the f**k it's going down.(lose again)
What I mean is watch the support/resistance (daily/weekly) very closely, not the news.

Like who's signature that saying "Trend is your friend, of course my friend is unpredictable and unreliable"

The fact is when cable is going up people will do whatever to buy.But when it goes down 50/50 undecided.Saw a downtrend but wont take it, believe to much on news.

Understand?
  • #14,883
  • Jun 13, 2007 11:07am Jun 13, 2007 11:07am
News? Impact? No,yes,why? Support/resistance? Fit with the news?
Fit, you go. No you dont!

Ah just ignore what i said, I dont know how to express it.
Different people different stye.As long I made profit and thats is what I care about.

Sorry if I offended someone.
Forget it ok? Thanks
Start trading everyday with a simple mind, and everything seems very clear!
  • #14,884
  • Jun 13, 2007 11:10am Jun 13, 2007 11:10am
i know exactly what you mean, i've been there (and sometimes i find myself there again and again...). that's why i use h4 or daily (weekly maybe) time frames and LOW margin (1% on most trades, 2% exceptional).
you need to be calm and think. like this:
...i'm short on cable. my h1 chart says 1.9741 is a possible SL; i don't believe that... pattern shows downtrend. i'll hold my short to the next level, 1.9768; if price climbs there i'll think about downtrend... hey i still believe in downtrend, i'll keep my short until 1.9785. now let's look at h4 chart, it shows 1.9796 as another resistance... above that, i can't afford to hold my short so i'll be out... SL @ 1.9797.
just an example. and those numbers are just for illustrating the example.

Quoting Razorstooth
I dont know how to explain this. Everything is pointing down, but then after a while it goes the opposite?Huh? Insist of holding that position.You lose.Then you decided to buy.What the f**k it's going down.(lose again)
What I mean is watch the support/resistance (daily/weekly) very closely, not the news.

Like who's signature that saying "Trend is your friend, of course my friend is unpredictable and unreliable"

The fact is when cable is going up people will do whatever to buy.But when it goes down 50/50 undecided.Saw a downtrend but wont take it, believe to much on news.

Understand?
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #14,885
  • Jun 13, 2007 11:26am Jun 13, 2007 11:26am
Yes scrat you're right! Most of us in the "position" again and again.That's why losing.You must understand the market condition overall for today not 100% the news.Everyday will be different. Think deeply.
Start trading everyday with a simple mind, and everything seems very clear!
  • #14,886
  • Jun 13, 2007 11:32am Jun 13, 2007 11:32am
let's make a bet :

When we reach 1K, the GU value shall be 1.9600...
  • #14,887
  • Jun 13, 2007 11:53am Jun 13, 2007 11:53am
Brilliant ones were predicting when 1000 pages would happen.

Some said by Asian open, some by London open. Not sure if anyone mentioned NY open. Thread is still not there midday EST.

Who cares?

Same thing about "my" support/resistance levels. They're possible zones but not exact numbers. Even the round numbers get overshot by a few pips, at least, before they hold and reverse.
  • #14,888
  • Jun 13, 2007 11:59am Jun 13, 2007 11:59am
I have added two charts for my view of cable.

First chart shows trend on 4 hour chart from 18th April with false breakout (This is a quick sketch)

2nd chart is 4 hour chart showing fib levels. Circled in red is a good entry for a long, this is a tail and once next bar broke through 23.6% fib was a good buy.

Sure news was good for $ today, however clues for cable rising were around 2PM GMT today just after the US $ news in my view. What I noticed was the 10 year note all of a sudden started dropping in value which corresponded with DOW Jones futures going from -30 to over +100 just before the market opened at 2.30pm. This was a bit strange and in recent times drop in T-note and rise in stocks is normally bearish for $. Gold and oil have risen today which is generally not good for $.

Where next for cable? I think still up for now. We need to break 1.9738 IMO for more upside. Targets are 1.9750 and then 1.9795 using last weeks Fib retrace (blue on chart). Other fib (yellow) is along term retrace of the up move from 4th May to April 18th, 1.9770 is at 38.2% retrace.

Unfortunately for me I decided to pass up the trade because I had cocked up earlier this morning and lost money. I went to take my anger out in the gym instead. I would have been in at 1.9705. 30 pips up if I did on multiple trades!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: trend.jpg Size: 48 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp.gif Size: 13 KB
  • #14,889
  • Jun 13, 2007 12:58pm Jun 13, 2007 12:58pm
Quoting SunTrader
Definitely 900 pages of useless opinion in the 1000 pages.

Somebody says stop hunting and next it will drop like a rock. Next one says Exactly.

It then proceeds to go higher. Duh.!!!

Every trade is always a best guess based on probabilities. But just pure guessing should be kept to yourself.

I wonder if the poster was taken out of a trade by the stop placement. Thats always a the wrong time to be judging the market movement when your stop is hit by having it in a vulnerable spot and then blaming "stop hunting brokers".
No, I wasn't taken out by SL because I TPed on the previous bar down. Did you take a short on that opinion and got burned? Too bad. Otherwise, what's up with that bitterness in your voice?

You need to read more carefully. I did not post It is stop hunting and it willdrop like a rock. How in the world would I know something like that? I said, "Looks like a stop collection move up in GBP over 9700 and in EUR over 3300 against the fundamentals. If so, it should drop like a rock."
  • #14,890
  • Jun 13, 2007 2:09pm Jun 13, 2007 2:09pm
Quoting x3m
No, I wasn't taken out by SL because I TPed on the previous bar down. Did you take a short on that opinion and got burned? Too bad. Otherwise, what's up with that bitterness in your voice?

You need to read more carefully. I did not post It is stop hunting and it willdrop like a rock. How in the world would I know something like that? I said, "Looks like a stop collection move up in GBP over 9700 and in EUR over 3300 against the fundamentals. If so, it should drop like a rock."
I concurred, so what are you bitching about? It should drop after it corrects towards the 62% level Fibo of the move from 1.96 to 1.99. Again expressing sentiments or opinions is what this is all about no?
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #14,891
  • Jun 13, 2007 2:54pm Jun 13, 2007 2:54pm
Meanwhile back at the chart what has cable done besides move UP off the daily low. Not a whole hell of a lot.

Oh big difference, you didn't say will, you said should.

Based on what may I ask.

And no worry about me going short on what you or anyone else posts here. I make my own decision, thanks anyway. And I don't advertise the fact which direction I am presently trading or tell the world how many pips I made or lost.
  • #14,892
  • Jun 13, 2007 3:58pm Jun 13, 2007 3:58pm
One thing for sure it is going up or down! This makes as much sense as some of the posts here.
  • #14,893
  • Jun 13, 2007 4:05pm Jun 13, 2007 4:05pm
Quoting SunTrader
Meanwhile back at the chart what has cable done besides move UP off the daily low. Not a whole hell of a lot.

Oh big difference, you didn't say will, you said should.

Based on what may I ask.

And no worry about me going short on what you or anyone else posts here. I make my own decision, thanks anyway. And I don't advertise the fact which direction I am presently trading or tell the world how many pips I made or lost.
Again, you did not read it correctly, but hey, who cares.
  • #14,894
  • Jun 13, 2007 4:29pm Jun 13, 2007 4:29pm
I can feel a high level of stress in this forum lately...people picking on each other, not getting simple jokes, etc

Guess the realised P&L are away on the red fore some of you here...right???
For he that would be deceived, let him.
  • #14,895
  • Jun 13, 2007 4:47pm Jun 13, 2007 4:47pm
Quoting grantco100
One thing for sure it is going up or down! This makes as much sense as some of the posts here.
Depends what time frame you are trading on. Short term last few days has been up, mid term last few weeks has been down and long term yearly is still up. The top three trendlines are different variations of the mid term, the one on the bottom right corner is the long term yearly trendline. Currently it's trapped inbetween the 50mma and 100ema. Quite a bit of resistance up top with so many failed attempts to break the mid term trend, but the long term normally prevails.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp.GIF Size: 19 KB
  • #14,896
  • Jun 13, 2007 6:08pm Jun 13, 2007 6:08pm
Quoting pinchapip
I can feel a high level of stress in this forum lately...people picking on each other, not getting simple jokes, etc

Guess the realised P&L are away on the red fore some of you here...right???
WRONG!

My P/L = 0... Other business to care and a #@$#%$ fuc#$@%¨$¨dental procedure today.... I surely prefer a blood red P/L......

All in all nice moves across the board to refresh a little... specially Mr. Dow Crazy-#$@$@# - Jones... Who would wonder...

I'll be back to biz tomorrow...
  • #14,897
  • Jun 13, 2007 6:15pm Jun 13, 2007 6:15pm
Wasn't talking about you Cesar !!!!!

You are cool !!!!!!
For he that would be deceived, let him.
  • #14,898
  • Jun 13, 2007 6:20pm Jun 13, 2007 6:20pm
Quoting pinchapip
Wasn't talking about you Cesar !!!!!

You are cool !!!!!!
Cool? I'm only getting burned this month here


.... Oh boy... I'll be watching the market in the next days and scalping only... But definetely staying out of larger term trades for the week - minimum.

I never saw dow jones putting +150 points in one day, -130 points in the next one and +190 in the next one... This is a clear symptom that markets are nervous and reacting fast to any event even if it is to reverse on the day next...
  • #14,899
  • Jun 13, 2007 7:00pm Jun 13, 2007 7:00pm
http://www.youtube.com/v/E11ENSKtzj8&autoplay=1
“Past performance is not indicative of future results”
  • #14,900
  • Jun 13, 2007 7:06pm Jun 13, 2007 7:06pm
Quoting cesarnc
Cool? I'm only getting burned this month here


.... Oh boy... I'll be watching the market in the next days and scalping only... But definetely staying out of larger term trades for the week - minimum.

I never saw dow jones putting +150 points in one day, -130 points in the next one and +190 in the next one... This is a clear symptom that markets are nervous and reacting fast to any event even if it is to reverse on the day next...

I have, although not those exact numbers, naturally. Back in 2000 Dow ATR was sometimes over 250 points.

Think it might be a repeat of big drop somewhere in the near future. Early next year perhaps.
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