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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #14,701
  • Jun 11, 2007 2:17pm Jun 11, 2007 2:17pm
safe to buy GBP/USD now?
  • #14,702
  • Jun 11, 2007 4:07pm Jun 11, 2007 4:07pm
EL_DUENDE: did you short again?


what effect do you guys think tomorrows cpi is gonna have? do you think a strong figure will result in a bigger move then a weak?
  • #14,703
  • Jun 11, 2007 4:15pm Jun 11, 2007 4:15pm
Quoting VEC
EL_DUENDE: did you short again?


what effect do you guys think tomorrows cpi is gonna have? do you think a strong figure will result in a bigger move then a weak?
A good deviation from the forecast is likely to provide nice move. At or above 2.8% would bring another hike soon to the table. Below 2.6% might be seen as a short term downtrend establishing (3.1% / 2.8% / <2.6%) and based on BOE's "wait-and-see" speech, it would bury the short term hike expectations...
  • #14,704
  • Jun 11, 2007 5:27pm Jun 11, 2007 5:27pm
Will go long if 1.9720 is broken, and will go short if 1.9658 is broken
  • #14,705
  • Jun 11, 2007 5:54pm Jun 11, 2007 5:54pm
Quote
EL_DUENDE: did you short again?

what effect do you guys think tomorrows cpi is gonna have? do you think a strong figure will result in a bigger move then a weak?

Yes I went short again price now at 1..9689 9 pips up! (only looking for 20 again ) 1.97 looks to be top of range until tomorrow morning.

Quote
A good deviation from the forecast is likely to provide nice move. At or above 2.8% would bring another hike soon to the table. Below 2.6% might be seen as a short term downtrend establishing (3.1% / 2.8% / <2.6%) and based on BOE's "wait-and-see" speech, it would bury the short term hike expectations...

I agree, I think 2.7% and above would result in the market pricing in another rate hike which would see us back to $2 area. 2.6% and under will result in continuation of downtrend as inflation will be seen to be moderating thus meaning BOE dont need to rise (in theory they may still surprise us)
  • #14,706
  • Jun 11, 2007 5:58pm Jun 11, 2007 5:58pm
Quoting el_duende
I agree, I think 2.7% and above would result in the market pricing in another rate hike which would see us back to $2 area. 2.6% and under will result in continuation of downtrend as inflation will be seen to be moderating thus meaning BOE dont need to rise (in theory they may still surprise us)
Don't forget that Mr. Dollar is also playing hard ball here. On a GBP positive news, I'm a scalper ahead of the NY session and possibly until US CPI later this week...
  • #14,707
  • Jun 11, 2007 6:10pm Jun 11, 2007 6:10pm
Hi traders ,

What do you recomend for thes position : sell or long .

http://www.up4ksa.com/uploads/7d5bffc862.jpg
  • #14,708
  • Jun 11, 2007 7:01pm Jun 11, 2007 7:01pm
Reading the news section, I've just noticed this monster long term trendline starting 2006.

Stay tuned.
Attached Image
  • #14,709
  • Jun 11, 2007 7:03pm Jun 11, 2007 7:03pm
2.7% ? with a rate hike how we could see CPI goes beyond 2.7%....they may still surprise us

Quoting el_duende
Yes I went short again price now at 1..9689 9 pips up! (only looking for 20 again ) 1.97 looks to be top of range until tomorrow morning.



I agree, I think 2.7% and above would result in the market pricing in another rate hike which would see us back to $2 area. 2.6% and under will result in continuation of downtrend as inflation will be seen to be moderating thus meaning BOE dont need to rise (in theory they may still surprise us)
  • #14,710
  • Edited 7:23pm Jun 11, 2007 7:07pm | Edited 7:23pm
Quoting cesarnc
Reading the news section, I've just noticed this monster long term trendline starting 2006.

Stay tuned.
This line makes no technical sense because is cutting off the bars formed in Feb-April 2006. The correct major line has to be drawn through the lows of 03.14.07 and 04.03.06. And it has been broken already.

This is the correct one:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Daily FXBPUSMUL line.jpg Size: 34 KB
  • #14,711
  • Jun 11, 2007 7:35pm Jun 11, 2007 7:35pm
congrats el_duende


i plotted both of the 2 (different) trendlines on my charts igrok, i guess we will just have to wait and see if its gonna get thru both or bounce back up again..
  • #14,712
  • Jun 11, 2007 7:55pm Jun 11, 2007 7:55pm
wow, cable up about 20pips... What a fast move...
  • #14,713
  • Jun 11, 2007 8:41pm Jun 11, 2007 8:41pm
the King said Gb may need to raise rate to curb inflation ...
Give me patience
  • #14,714
  • Jun 11, 2007 9:20pm Jun 11, 2007 9:20pm
judging by your chart, 1.9723 should be on the trendline that has just become resistance. a nice point to short g-u, let's see if it's working.

Quoting Igrok
This line makes no technical sense because is cutting off the bars formed in Feb-April 2006. The correct major line has to be drawn through the lows of 03.14.07 and 04.03.06. And it has been broken already.

This is the correct one:
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #14,715
  • Jun 11, 2007 10:32pm Jun 11, 2007 10:32pm
Quoting Qu|cksilver
I can hear Asia whisper at me.. LOL
Can u here malaysian saying 'hello' to you?
traders rawks!
well save resources, ipoh
  • #14,716
  • Jun 11, 2007 11:18pm Jun 11, 2007 11:18pm
Closed long position from 1.9675 @ 1.9726 for +51 pips
  • #14,717
  • Jun 11, 2007 11:55pm Jun 11, 2007 11:55pm
Quoting GFI
Closed long position from 1.9675 @ 1.9726 for +51 pips
If I may ask, what made you go long at 1.9675?
  • #14,718
  • Jun 12, 2007 12:16am Jun 12, 2007 12:16am
Still have my longs open.. waiting for cable to swing over the BB or close some before cpi news. Almost suicidal here.. feeling like henry carol.. got mistakenly think that the bear was over. So put buy at every attempt to swing back inside BB. Luckily now starts showing good signs.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: test.jpg Size: 82 KB
  • #14,719
  • Jun 12, 2007 12:23am Jun 12, 2007 12:23am
Daily charts also showing good signs with a potential round bottom on MACD and candle almost got inside BB. Although RSI on H4 and D1 havent got above 50.
But again.. all technical signs means nothing ahead of major news.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: test.jpg Size: 80 KB
  • #14,720
  • Jun 12, 2007 3:29am Jun 12, 2007 3:29am
Good luck
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