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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #14,541
  • Jun 7, 2007 1:22pm Jun 7, 2007 1:22pm
So to summarise if we go though 1.9731 then it is probably good to target lower levels

Here are some fibs from start of March on daily chart we have had move up followed by a retrace.

61.8% is approx 1.9550 which would fit in nicely with Igroks and Scrats potential lows of approx 1.9565 and 1.9465

May take a while to get there though (potentially)
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  • #14,542
  • Jun 7, 2007 1:29pm Jun 7, 2007 1:29pm
1.9265 at the very end of the month is possible. Pretty good technical level with a lot of sense.
  • #14,543
  • Jun 7, 2007 1:31pm Jun 7, 2007 1:31pm
although i noticed that higher time frames tend to be more reliable, because the distance between the extremes is higher.

Quoting Igrok
This is what I meant. And it works for any time frame.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #14,544
  • Jun 7, 2007 1:48pm Jun 7, 2007 1:48pm
Quoting ndvt241
I think, it must break the 97.30 to call the move "down"
If you look at the 4Hr, or the daily Chart you can see how the trend is still up

====================================
Good analysis.
I agree.
  • #14,545
  • Jun 7, 2007 2:13pm Jun 7, 2007 2:13pm
Quoting Igrok
I don't know whether it's going to be 334 pips or more. But I'm sure that the market is not like a sewing machine and doesn't change the direction of the main move of the month at will. Check it out how often it does that. Usually just once, sometimes twice and very rare more than that.
That reminds me of some research I did a year ago on daily / weekly movements.

More than 80% of the time the weekly highs/lows came on a Monday and Friday.
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #14,546
  • Jun 7, 2007 3:11pm Jun 7, 2007 3:11pm
Tried to upload an image but am useless at this techie stuff - but if anyone cares to post the image of the weekly channel - ties in exactly with 9565 that's been mentioned - could this mean a 200 day tomorrow!!?
I've got my pips - go get yours!
  • #14,547
  • Jun 7, 2007 3:40pm Jun 7, 2007 3:40pm
Quoting got pips?
do anyone agree that the pair will head lower by tonite, maybe tomorrow we can see the prices hitting the 1.9850 and lower so on.

i really think the trend will turnaround and head lower. what you think about the following order

enter at 1.9925
stoploss: 19975
tg 1.... 1.9878
tg 2.... 1.9830
tg 3.... 1.9760
IF YOU HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING THE TRADE I POSTED EARLIER, DO YOU THINK IT WILL BE WISE TO TARGET 1.9625 BY NEXT WEEK
DISCIPLINE IS THE KEY TO SUCCESS!!!:nerd:
  • #14,548
  • Jun 7, 2007 3:56pm Jun 7, 2007 3:56pm
Quoting got pips?
IF YOU HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING THE TRADE I POSTED EARLIER, DO YOU THINK IT WILL BE WISE TO TARGET 1.9625 BY NEXT WEEK
Not retracing today's move, 9625 is reality for tomorrow

Today's move reminds me february no hike, after Jan's hike:

- there were expectations for another hike (like today)
- there was a no-hike (like today)
- GU down 150 pips 1st day / 150pips day after....

I would say strong HUUUGE CPI only to reverse the sentiment right now...

Besides, USD is in a verge of a strong move up, with todays 10yr above 5%, which is USD bullish, stocks & carries bearish...

This 10yr Treasure above 5% may have been an important milestone for the year, should it goes on up... Previous sentiment of a rate cut from FED (USD bearish / stocks&carries bullish), now replaced by a sentiment of a no-hike or a possible hike for 2007.

I wish this forex addition of mine to let me get out of this market for a whole month. That would be wise
  • #14,549
  • Jun 7, 2007 4:06pm Jun 7, 2007 4:06pm
what date do you think this thread will become a 1000 page thread?

cesarnc: do you think its gonna have the momentum to break 1.97?? i´ve been thinkin of a long eur/usd tomorrow. . . .
  • #14,550
  • Jun 7, 2007 4:08pm Jun 7, 2007 4:08pm
Quoting VEC
what date do you think this thread will become a 1000 page thread?
Or what GU's price ?

I go for 1.95ish
  • #14,551
  • Jun 7, 2007 4:14pm Jun 7, 2007 4:14pm
Quoting VEC
what date do you think this thread will become a 1000 page thread?

cesarnc: do you think its gonna have the momentum to break 1.97?? i´ve been thinkin of a long eur/usd tomorrow. . . .
I really don't know... But as times goes, I went from GU bullish to GU clueless. Now I'm leaving GU clueless to GU bearish.....

Although many people don't agree, I like the 4hr 250 EMA as reference. It is only breached with strong fundamentals... And it was RAPED today, via GBP disappointement + USD apetite... If I have to bet, I would bet for the continuation of this sentiment for quite sometime. Although a test of the EMA is on the cards... Last 9820 (EMA)
  • #14,552
  • Jun 7, 2007 4:15pm Jun 7, 2007 4:15pm
okey, enough momentum to break thru then
  • #14,553
  • Jun 7, 2007 4:25pm Jun 7, 2007 4:25pm
Quoting VEC
okey, enough momentum to break thru then
Sorry, the answer to your question is "yes I think"
  • #14,554
  • Jun 7, 2007 4:34pm Jun 7, 2007 4:34pm
Quoting cesarnc
Sorry, the answer to your question is "yes I think"
sry didnt meen to be rude.
  • #14,555
  • Jun 7, 2007 4:40pm Jun 7, 2007 4:40pm
Quoting cesarnc
I really don't know... But as times goes, I went from GU bullish to GU clueless. Now I'm leaving GU clueless to GU bearish.....

Although many people don't agree, I like the 4hr 250 EMA as reference. It is only breached with strong fundamentals... And it was RAPED today, via GBP disappointement + USD apetite... If I have to bet, I would bet for the continuation of this sentiment for quite sometime. Although a test of the EMA is on the cards... Last 9820 (EMA)
Why is everyone so hasty? The GU is already climbing back up.

Yes, short term trend is down and we have moved violently today, but we are pausing at key supports and psychological/mathematical levels. Also, higher lows on the charts mean the strong trend down is jittery. Have patience.
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #14,556
  • Jun 7, 2007 4:41pm Jun 7, 2007 4:41pm
Quoting dswk
Good analysis.
I agree.
Thanks
  • #14,557
  • Jun 7, 2007 4:43pm Jun 7, 2007 4:43pm
I am totally US DOLLAR BULLISH GUY FROM NOW ON AND KEEP IT FOR YEARS.
  • #14,558
  • Jun 7, 2007 4:58pm Jun 7, 2007 4:58pm
Quoting Plutonite
Why is everyone so hasty? The GU is already climbing back up.

Yes, short term trend is down and we have moved violently today, but we are pausing at key supports and psychological/mathematical levels. Also, higher lows on the charts mean the strong trend down is jittery. Have patience.
Not only about the GBP, Plutonite... USD has its weight here. Big push to 2.0100 was partially a USD bearish move across the board, when all (or almost all) pairs placed all-time highs against the dollar.

What I'm bringing up here is that USD sentiment, against any pair, is giving SIGNS - early signs - of reversal from cut to no hike (or hike for 2008). I'm looking at these signs right now, not playing the apocalypse prophet here....

And also, I'm off GU for quite some time already... I'm just looking at it for my GJ trades, to which other variables also weight
  • #14,559
  • Jun 7, 2007 5:14pm Jun 7, 2007 5:14pm
Quoting cesarnc

..What I'm bringing up here is..giving SIGNS - early signs - of reversal..I'm looking at these signs right now..playing the apocalypse prophet here....

...I'm off..just looking at it..my..variables..weight
that's crazy talk. calm yourself down man. relax.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #14,560
  • Jun 7, 2007 5:21pm Jun 7, 2007 5:21pm
Daily Fibs for GbpUsd
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