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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #14,521
  • Jun 7, 2007 9:52am Jun 7, 2007 9:52am
1.9776 level didn't hold so we could possibly see 1.9731, waiting for it to be broken to short cable again
  • #14,522
  • Jun 7, 2007 9:57am Jun 7, 2007 9:57am
Cable has just changed the direction of the main move of the month. So, we can project the average monthly range on the downside now. Seems to be an exciting bearish month of June.
  • #14,523
  • Jun 7, 2007 10:03am Jun 7, 2007 10:03am
Quoting Igrok
Cable has just changed the direction of the main move of the month. So, we can project the average monthly range on the downside now. Seems to be an exciting bearish month of June.
Do you mean EURJPY?
  • #14,524
  • Jun 7, 2007 10:09am Jun 7, 2007 10:09am
Quoting goonergonebad
Do you mean EURJPY?
I mean what I just said - cable.
  • #14,525
  • Jun 7, 2007 10:13am Jun 7, 2007 10:13am
judging by today's big move, i'd say the weekend already started for cable traders.

Quoting pino2
I was short from 1.9923 closed @ 1.9850, I will wait till it reach the 1.9731 if reached and broken so I will sell cable again TP 1.9665, if not and then 1.9776 holds, so I will go long TP 1.9840
so 1.9731 and 1.9776 are keys for my next direction, I wish that cable don't try to think to practice it's lately favourable actions by sticking between these 2 levels with no clear direction
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #14,526
  • Jun 7, 2007 10:13am Jun 7, 2007 10:13am
Quoting Igrok
I mean what I just said - cable.
Please sir, can you define main move of the month (30 days, calendar month, percentage of previous year, etc. etc.)?
  • #14,527
  • Jun 7, 2007 10:20am Jun 7, 2007 10:20am
Quoting camisa
well, today was one of those good old days!!!

And I nailed it after some days being stoped

Hope cable resumes its normal traditional course from here!
Right-on....looks like a 200 pip day for cable, not seen since early January

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  • #14,528
  • Edited 10:41am Jun 7, 2007 10:28am | Edited 10:41am
Quoting goonergonebad
Please sir, can you define main move of the month (30 days, calendar month, percentage of previous year, etc. etc.)?
If the bottom within a certain calendar month has been formed before the top then the direction of the main move of the month is up. If the top has been formed before the bottom then it's the opposite. Up until today, the bottom of the month of June was formed at 1.9765 on June 1-st. It has been broken today and now the top of the month is at 1.9969 with the direction of the main move being down. Assuming that a new high of the month is unlikely to be formed, then we can make a projection for the level cable can reach before the end of the month in order to establish at least its average monthly range.
  • #14,529
  • Jun 7, 2007 10:29am Jun 7, 2007 10:29am
Cable really needed this 200 pips move that happened today to prove that it is still alive after the embarrassing results been made last month and at the begining of this week till yesterday, who can believe that cable had closed like 10 days with 80 pips or less in the month of May, specially the last 10 days which one one day it closed with 25 pips range, that if I was trading the somali/sudanese pair if found (with all respect), it could have bring more pips and a better move, I have been trading cables since years, and it hasn't bring these consecutive funny ranges this way.Conrtas cable, I don't dream to see big ranges for cable as before, but at least I wish to see a room to move in normally
  • #14,530
  • Jun 7, 2007 10:33am Jun 7, 2007 10:33am
Quoting Igrok
If the bottom within a certain calendar month has been formed before the top then the direction of the main move of the month is up. If the top has been formed before the bottom then it's the opposite. Up until today, the bottom of the month of June was formed at 1.9665 on June 1-st. It has been broken today and now the top of the month is at 1.9969 with the direction of the main move being down. Assuming that a new high of the month is unlikely to be formed, then we can make a projection for the level cable can reach before the end of the month in order to establish at least its average monthly range.
sir if i understand correctly, bottom at june 1st 1.9665 hasnt been broken?? Lowest printed today is 1.9750 which is still 85 pips away? or am i not understanding u correctly.Thanks!
  • #14,531
  • Jun 7, 2007 10:35am Jun 7, 2007 10:35am
Quoting fx1711
sir if i understand correctly, bottom at june 1st 1.9665 hasnt been broken?? Lowest printed today is 1.9750 which is still 85 pips away? or am i not understanding u correctly.Thanks!
I guess he meant 1.9765, but it was a typing mistake made by him
  • #14,532
  • Jun 7, 2007 10:41am Jun 7, 2007 10:41am
Quoting pino2
I guess he meant 1.9765, but it was a typing mistake made by him
Sure. Sorry, it's a typo. I was talking about 1.9765. It's obvious. You can see it on the charts when the previous bottom has been formed.
  • #14,533
  • Jun 7, 2007 10:48am Jun 7, 2007 10:48am
Quoting Igrok
If the bottom within a certain calendar month has been formed before the top then the direction of the main move of the month is up. If the top has been formed before the bottom then it's the opposite. Up until today, the bottom of the month of June was formed at 1.9765 on June 1-st. It has been broken today and now the top of the month is at 1.9969 with the direction of the main move being down. Assuming that a new high of the month is unlikely to be formed, then we can make a projection for the level cable can reach before the end of the month in order to establish at least its average monthly range.
So you mean 334 pips this calendar month for cable? I wasn't sure if you were suggesting that the cable sell-off had affected another specific pair. For example EURJPY which today has fallen dramatically along with the $ crosses.
  • #14,534
  • Jun 7, 2007 10:52am Jun 7, 2007 10:52am
Quoting goonergonebad
So you mean 334 pips this calendar month for cable? I wasn't sure if you were suggesting that the cable sell-off had affected another specific pair. For example EURJPY which today has fallen dramatically along with the $ crosses.
I don't know whether it's going to be 334 pips or more. But I'm sure that the market is not like a sewing machine and doesn't change the direction of the main move of the month at will. Check it out how often it does that. Usually just once, sometimes twice and very rare more than that.
  • #14,535
  • Jun 7, 2007 10:54am Jun 7, 2007 10:54am
Hi,

I might sound really out of place here ( ) but wld anyone knw of a forum which would be discussing the Asian currency basket? I haven't seem to have found one.

Tks vm
Patience is a Virtue.
  • #14,536
  • Jun 7, 2007 11:03am Jun 7, 2007 11:03am
Quoting goonergonebad
So you mean 334 pips this calendar month for cable? I wasn't sure if you were suggesting that the cable sell-off had affected another specific pair. For example EURJPY which today has fallen dramatically along with the $ crosses.
BTW this is how my daily cable chart looks like. Very convenient. Every other month is painted in a different color. Easy to define the main move direction in a glance.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Daily FXBPUSMUL.jpg Size: 28 KB
  • #14,537
  • Jun 7, 2007 11:06am Jun 7, 2007 11:06am
last month cable ran 397 pips; previous 5 month average is 495, and a monthly average is 506.
if this is another 4-500 pips month, and if cable doesn't go higher than 1.9965, i'd say we should look for a low between 1.9565 and 1.9465.


Quoting Igrok
If the bottom within a certain calendar month has been formed before the top then the direction of the main move of the month is up. If the top has been formed before the bottom then it's the opposite. Up until today, the bottom of the month of June was formed at 1.9765 on June 1-st. It has been broken today and now the top of the month is at 1.9969 with the direction of the main move being down. Assuming that a new high of the month is unlikely to be formed, then we can make a projection for the level cable can reach before the end of the month in order to establish at least its average monthly range.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #14,538
  • Jun 7, 2007 11:06am Jun 7, 2007 11:06am
I think, it must break the 97.30 to call the move "down"
If you look at the 4Hr, or the daily Chart you can see how the trend is still up

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  • #14,539
  • Jun 7, 2007 11:08am Jun 7, 2007 11:08am
Quoting Scrat
last month cable ran 397 pips; previous 5 month average is 495, and a monthly average is 506.
if this is another 4-500 pips month, and if cable doesn't go higher than 1.9965, i'd say we should look for a low between 1.9565 and 1.9465.
This is what I meant. And it works for any time frame.
  • #14,540
  • Jun 7, 2007 11:21am Jun 7, 2007 11:21am
Quoting Scrat
judging by today's big move, i'd say the weekend already started for cable traders.
You got that right Scrat ole buddy! I told you patience will pay off, I know you made money too you little nutter.

PS: I am closed on all GBPUSD and EURUSD trades described a few pages back -they are probably good for another 30 pips or something max, but not really worth the risk. I'm out until Tokyo.

Go get some sleep boys. And good luck!
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
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