Swing Trades DAX/DOW/NQ/GOLD

Done. These markets suck. Waiting for (much) better days to come

Markets try to rebound again, but still not out of the woods.
Last (trading) day of the Month.

Possible Swing (counter) longs triggered, but prices slip back down again.

DOW hit the 33.500/MS2 zone and popped
Below 33.500 it could drop to 33K. Not very likely, but Exp The Unexpected

SnP hit the MS2 zone and popped
Could still make a new drop to 4200 zone

NQ reached the 14.600 and is getting close to its 14.500 zone/rest of an old TPO GAP.
Still needs to be filled sooner of later.

2 MA lines are in a very wide state, what indicates markets are in an oversold state.

DOW 33K still an option if things getting worse
SnP 4250<>4200 still an option if they can't keep SP to stay above 4300
NQ 14.500/400 still on the table to get the GAP filled. 200 SMA just above 14K and still an option to test.



Markets tend to go back to the close of the Sept. Monthly VWAP.

For the DOW that means up to 34.500 zone/200 SMA and September M VWAP.
For the SnP that would mean up to the 4450 zone/TPO GAP to fill/close of Sept M VWAP.
For the NQ that would meanup to 15.000<>15.250 zone/close of Sept M VWAP/100 SMA.

Just an observation on a chart technical base/no prediction, what usually could happens in a longer time span. So its not gone happen Today.

All depends on a number of issues:

US Government shut down?
Q3 earnings?
New rate hikes?
Ray Dalio says the U.S. is going to have a debt crisis ("the “risky” U.S. fiscal situation")
etc etc.

MYM SL BE last lot
MES closed +8p last 2 lot
MNQ closed +82 & 75p last 4 lot

CNBC:
U.S. debt levels surpassed $33 trillion for the first time this month as lawmakers negotiate a U.S. spending bill before the Oct. 1 deadline. A failure to reach an agreement could mean a government shutdown and raise the perceived risk of the country’s debt.

U.S. debt levels have ballooned in recent years, especially after a roughly 50% increase in federal spending between fiscal 2019 and fiscal 2021, according to the U.S. Department of the Treasury. Investors fear interest rates may keep rising as the U.S. fiscal situation worsens, hurting the demand for Treasurys.

Dalio is concerned there are more headwinds for the economy than just high debt levels, saying growth could fall to zero, give or take 1% or 2%.

US markets hover between my 2 (purple) MA lines/MA channel. That usually means choppy moves as we face now.
Momentem (MM) is happening outside the MA channel (a very basic Tech analyze rule) as we saw in the last few weeks.

MNQ (poss. Swing) Long again last lot from 14.877
T1 +12p 4 lot
1 left/SL BE zone

We had prior 2 positive days so far. Lets see if there will be a 3th one today
15K = RS (of course). Once above 15K (next week?) it could shoo to 15.250 GAP close

FDXM L closed +40p at WR1/+0.5% zone last lot

Still last 2 FDXS running for 15.600 +1.0% zone (from 15.475)
T2 +75p 1 lot
1 left/+75p locked in last lot
Closed +75p last lot

I added and sold some more lots to my initial last MYM lot
Average 33.986 L now.

NQ only 50p away of the 15K. GAP above 15K.

MNQ closed +88p last lot at MS1 zone
Above MS1 long again

MCL Long from 92.15/Wk VWAP/WR1
T2 +25p 2 lot
4 left
T2 +33p 2 lot
2 left/SL BE
T3 +62p 1 lot
1 left/+50p locked in

Its time we see a green day again

[quote=Dutchy Daxy;14597184]Its time we see a green day again {image}[/quote
it’s a nice rebound but isn’t fair to expect dbl bottom as some sort as a confirmation ?

[quote=kilopip;14597282] My confirmation: (for what its worth)

Price BO above the slowest purple Swing MA line and pulls back again.
This is the first BO above a Swing MA line.

After the pull back a second BO above the slowest Swing MA line happens, which is my confirmation

NQ Long 14.992 last lot of 2 lot
T1 +4p 1 lot

[quote=Dutchy Daxy;14597354] Looks like this

ES Mini long 4356.5 1 lot
Closed +12p 1 lot

MES Micro long 4355 6 lot
T1 +8p 4 lot
2 left SL BE
Closed +6p last 2 lot
Stuck at +0.5%/DR1/Slow Swing MA line

Can pull back again to make a double bottom or a higher low at 4300/20 zone.
But there is some light at the (possible) end of the tunnel.

Reversed H&S pattern. Possible pull back to the right shoulder to test/to confirm the rebound.

where is that nasdaq gap to cover exactly plz?

15.150<>15.235

Short 15.026 WPP rejection
Back to 15K or more

T1 +10/11p 5 lot
5 left SL BE zone
T2 +17p 3 lot
2 left SL BE
T3 +19/20p 1 lot
1 left
Closed +48p last lot

MS1/15P SP now as long as it lasts

Hey there!

In your opinion, would it be good to expect DAX retesting todays opening price, or it will rebound higher?

Thanks in advance and have a good weekend!

Hi,

No idea where it will go to. Price lift stopped at MS1 on the tick.

Most logic is a 15.500<>15K test again/Opening is just above 15K

Good weekend too.