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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #14,401
  • Jun 6, 2007 7:40am Jun 6, 2007 7:40am
same here. but... since cable pissed me so many times before by doing exactly the opposite, i guess we'll be seeing some more of this PATHETIC bullish speculation.

Quoting Tatton
i guess im the only one who thinks this bull run is coming to an end?


anyone shorting the cable?
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #14,402
  • Jun 6, 2007 7:56am Jun 6, 2007 7:56am
some good analysis on this thread.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #14,403
  • Jun 6, 2007 8:06am Jun 6, 2007 8:06am
GBP
The pound also rose decently against the USD and other currency pairs on back of expectations that the MPC will be hawkish on Thursday. It has broken bear trend resistance from 4/18/07 at 1.9910. The break of 1.9960 could easily give scope for a test of 2.00+ within the end this week.
“Past performance is not indicative of future results”
  • #14,404
  • Jun 6, 2007 8:30am Jun 6, 2007 8:30am
US$Index EURUSD and GBPUSD all have inside daily bars so far.

And yes I know GBPUSD has low 1 pip below yesterday. Still.

So anyone saying on a short term basis (next couple of days) we are going up or we are going down. Not till we make a move can that be told.
  • #14,405
  • Jun 6, 2007 8:45am Jun 6, 2007 8:45am
Quoting bravado
some good analysis on this thread.
======================
NDVT 241:
What I see: The cable allraedy fail to pass above 99.60 and will not pass it unless the interest rate is hiked. for that reason the range today will be between 99.40 sclaping to 98.80

Eur: No reason to stay above 1.35 I think, should drop to 34.80 or 34.50

Do you agree guys?
  • #14,406
  • Jun 6, 2007 9:24am Jun 6, 2007 9:24am
Quoting ndvt241
======================
NDVT 241:
What I see: The cable allraedy fail to pass above 99.60 and will not pass it unless the interest rate is hiked. for that reason the range today will be between 99.40 sclaping to 98.80

Eur: No reason to stay above 1.35 I think, should drop to 34.80 or 34.50

Do you agree guys?
No.
  • #14,407
  • Jun 6, 2007 9:25am Jun 6, 2007 9:25am
i think both eur/usd and gbp/usd is gonna fall below 1.99 and 1.500, maby make a small rally befor falling(im waiting for that small rally and will probobly sell if that scenario plays out).

given some time thou, id say the pickup in the us might spark another rate hike in EZ.

if the dollar gains to much its might cripple us manufacturing and job rate might begin to declain.

what do you more experienced traders think of my viewpoint?
  • #14,408
  • Jun 6, 2007 10:12am Jun 6, 2007 10:12am
Quoting SunTrader
No.
I was expecting that you are the only one who will say no!
What do you think Mr smart?

=================================
  • #14,409
  • Jun 6, 2007 10:14am Jun 6, 2007 10:14am
WASHINGTON (AP) --
The White House on Wednesday lowered its forecast for economic growth this year even as it slightly upgraded its outlook for unemployment.Under the administration's new forecast, gross domestic product, or GDP, will grow by 2.3 percent as measured from the fourth quarter of last year to the fourth quarter of this year. That's down from a previous projection of 2.9 percent.
The main reason for the downgrade: The first three months of 2007 got off to an extremely weak start. Economic growth at that time had skidded to nearly a halt, increasing at a rate of just 0.6 percent, the worst showing in more than four years.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, the administration and private economists expect the economy will rebound in the months ahead. The one wild card, though, is whether the nearly year-long housing slump -- which has been a damper on overall economic activity -- gets worse.
“Past performance is not indicative of future results”
  • #14,410
  • Jun 6, 2007 10:21am Jun 6, 2007 10:21am
Since scrat is posting here I might as well nab a quick one as well.

I am also short GBPUSD as well as EURUSD since around 50 pips back. I believe that with a lack of strong news reaction we have nothing but market psychology and probability to play out, and both show overbought conditions. I have TP set at 1.9840, and it could go as low as 1.9740 before something else happens.

Good luck all.
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #14,411
  • Jun 6, 2007 10:27am Jun 6, 2007 10:27am
Quoting Plutonite
..we have nothing but market psychology and probability to play out..
excellent statement.

market psychology is the product of technical AND fundamental analysis AND dicipline.

hard to master. deadly accurate once you grab the concept.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #14,412
  • Jun 6, 2007 11:29am Jun 6, 2007 11:29am
could anyone please explain why there was no movement in cable inspite of more than a 100 points fall in Dow jones?
Thank you
Kumar
  • #14,413
  • Jun 6, 2007 11:39am Jun 6, 2007 11:39am
do anyone agree that the pair will head lower by tonite, maybe tomorrow we can see the prices hitting the 1.9850 and lower so on.

i really think the trend will turnaround and head lower. what you think about the following order

enter at 1.9925
stoploss: 19975
tg 1.... 1.9878
tg 2.... 1.9830
tg 3.... 1.9760
DISCIPLINE IS THE KEY TO SUCCESS!!!:nerd:
  • #14,414
  • Jun 6, 2007 11:47am Jun 6, 2007 11:47am
Quoting gkumar
could anyone please explain why there was no movement in cable inspite of more than a 100 points fall in Dow jones?
Thank you
Kumar
European stock markets dropped heavily, followed by UK, and then US. So they must be rough parity for the cable to be unaffected.
Gone to a better place
  • #14,415
  • Jun 6, 2007 11:47am Jun 6, 2007 11:47am
gbp rate announcement tomorrow.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #14,416
  • Jun 6, 2007 11:48am Jun 6, 2007 11:48am
Uptrend still hanging in there...
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  • #14,417
  • Jun 6, 2007 12:00pm Jun 6, 2007 12:00pm
Quoting Plutonite
Since scrat is posting here I might as well nab a quick one as well.

I am also short GBPUSD as well as EURUSD since around 50 pips back. I believe that with a lack of strong news reaction we have nothing but market psychology and probability to play out, and both show overbought conditions. I have TP set at 1.9840, and it could go as low as 1.9740 before something else happens.

Good luck all.
Behavioural Trading (market psychology)
A new area of financial research that recognizes a psychological element in financial decision making, thus challenging traditional models that assume traders will always weigh risk/return factors rationally and act without bias. For example, the human tendency to avoid admitting error, called fear of regret by psychologists, can cause a trader to hold a losing position too long or sell a winner too soon. Similarly, trade selections are influenced positively or negatively by attitudes toward wealth. The success of contrarian and momentum strategies owes largely to psychological factors. The premise of behavioural trading is that taking psychological factors into account can enhance the effectiveness of trading strategies.
  • #14,418
  • Jun 6, 2007 12:06pm Jun 6, 2007 12:06pm
i regret sold winner too late a lot more! but i agree about loosing positions somewhat...like u receive the dividend but closed with a loss in a price (today),...
its just money
  • #14,419
  • Edited 2:00pm Jun 6, 2007 1:19pm | Edited 2:00pm
still thinking its going to hit the 2's for the final wave.
and then the spiral downward will commence.
“Past performance is not indicative of future results”
  • #14,420
  • Jun 6, 2007 1:47pm Jun 6, 2007 1:47pm
Quoting gkumar
could anyone please explain why there was no movement in cable inspite of more than a 100 points fall in Dow jones?
Thank you
Kumar
Because it is never automatic that if X goes down Y goes up.

People say it used to be that if the dollar went down gold went up. Not true in every case. It did when they were looking, so they said "a ha". But when it didn't they ignored it.

I watch what I am trading, not other markets. Even if they are some what related it is only a distraction IMO.
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