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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #778,361
  • Sep 27, 2023 4:47am Sep 27, 2023 4:47am
Quoting knkie
So i think the Shorts are taking over again. But I could be wrong. Im wondering how others deal with this: - you enter a trade, after which you realise it might be wrong. - do you keep it and hope for the best? - do you dump it? - do you take out a hedge as insurance? - something else? just interested.
I just scalp, my lot size is large in every position I take, I never keep a SL, i manually close it at 2 or 3 pips out of money, tp is usually 8 to 10 pips....I take 6 to 8 scalps a day, even if I hit my Target in 2 scaps then I m home

I usually trade with 1000 USD balance & have 1:200 leverage with my broker,My Target is just to make 100 USD a day , if I loose 100 USD in a day then m out fr the day
  • #778,362
  • Sep 27, 2023 4:47am Sep 27, 2023 4:47am
Quoting knkie
So i think the Shorts are taking over again. But I could be wrong. Im wondering how others deal with this: - you enter a trade, after which you realise it might be wrong. - do you keep it and hope for the best? - do you dump it? - do you take out a hedge as insurance? - something else? just interested.
For me, I let it run either to TP or SL, to stay true to the system.
Because if you realized you are wrong, you are only wrong "at that moment" when you are in loss.
What if the price nearly reach your SL, only for it to strongly go to your direction and hit TP? Then you will be right again.
Exiting before hitting SL can mean flip-flopping your direction bias causing anxiety and uncertainty, if the market is direction-less and ranging, flip-flopping can incur high losses compared to just obediently hitting 1 SL.

If I am wrong, that means the trade has hit SL, and hitting SL can tell me 1 thing, it could mean the initial direction I've chosen has no more juice to continue and is reversing, indirectly telling me to look for setup in opposite direction.

Pleased with this month's decent result.
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  • #778,363
  • Edited 5:27am Sep 27, 2023 4:48am | Edited 5:27am
Quoting dantpm
{quote} Your data is a little out of date: U.S. National Debt Clock : Real Time (usdebtclock.org) Japan Debt Clock: What Is A Rolling Liquidity Strategy Doing To Economic Health? - Commodity.com
GDP is even worse
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  • #778,364
  • Sep 27, 2023 4:49am Sep 27, 2023 4:49am
Quoting JereMi256
{quote} My first reaction to that is to reduce the risk. For example, if I have entered 5× 0.01 lots, I cut off 2/3 and wait for more information to avail before I take my final decision. Nice question, Knkie. Have a great day!
If it's a ranging structure, I add positions at the top/ bottom of the range and wait for more info.
Face 'ur fears & tame 'ur greed
  • #778,365
  • Sep 27, 2023 4:49am Sep 27, 2023 4:49am
excellent answers to my question, thanx everyone!
i did learn something
in wondering about yourself, you forgot what you came here to be part of
  • #778,366
  • Sep 27, 2023 4:49am Sep 27, 2023 4:49am
Quoting knkie
So i think the Shorts are taking over again. But I could be wrong. Im wondering how others deal with this: - you enter a trade, after which you realise it might be wrong. - do you keep it and hope for the best? - do you dump it? - do you take out a hedge as insurance? - something else? just interested.
The trend is down quite alright but GU is due for small correction before downward trend continuation to the next support level at 1.2075. I expect the market to retrace upward before it tanks ( though market can prove anyone wrong).

To answer your question , once I plan my trade , I would have calculated my risk and if it is worth taking based on what I see on the chart, I allow the trade to run . in case it hits my stop loss , I have nothing to fear because loss is part of what traders face. I think the psychology of a trader matters in this aspect
With patience and discipline,you move beyond the sky
  • #778,367
  • Sep 27, 2023 4:54am Sep 27, 2023 4:54am
I have a buy order running on GU though the trend is down and the structure is not yet complete, I just don't consider the current price a good place to sell. I will take profit on my long trade at the daily pivot level around 1.2172 and look for a sell setup around 1.2196 area. That is my focus for GU today
With patience and discipline,you move beyond the sky
  • #778,368
  • Sep 27, 2023 4:55am Sep 27, 2023 4:55am
Quoting knkie
{quote} vigilance with this cause the Markets are NOT normally distributed. just my 2 cents
agree, of course taking that as a single element to a decisional process, and then execute according to it, can t bring u to a successful operation, there are many other factors to consider
chaos is just unknown order
  • #778,369
  • Sep 27, 2023 4:55am Sep 27, 2023 4:55am
Quoting Reverso
{quote} For me, I let it run either to TP or SL, to stay true to the system. Because if you realized you are wrong, you are only wrong "at that moment" when you are in loss. What if the price nearly reach your SL, only for it to strongly go to your direction and hit TP? Then you will be right again. Exiting before hitting SL can mean flip-flopping your direction bias causing anxiety and uncertainty, if the market is direction-less and ranging, flip-flopping can incur high losses compared to just obediently hitting 1 SL. If I am wrong, that means...
I like your response very much.
  • #778,370
  • Sep 27, 2023 4:57am Sep 27, 2023 4:57am
omg
Quoting Zebi
{quote} {quote} This means you treat the Three Black Crows Pattern as a bullish signal — alerting you of potential buying opportunities. Wait for a Three Black Crows pattern to come into an area of value (like Support, Trendline, etc.) Go long when the market shows rejection of lower prices (like Hammer, Bullish Engulfing, etc.) https://www.tradingwithrayner.com/th...lfing%2C%20etc.)...
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #778,371
  • Sep 27, 2023 5:00am Sep 27, 2023 5:00am
Quoting Reverso
{quote} For me, I let it run either to TP or SL, to stay true to the system. Because if you realized you are wrong, you are only wrong "at that moment" when you are in loss. What if the price nearly reach your SL, only for it to strongly go to your direction and hit TP? Then you will be right again. Exiting before hitting SL can mean flip-flopping your direction bias causing anxiety and uncertainty, if the market is direction-less and ranging, flip-flopping can incur high losses compared to just obediently hitting 1 SL. If I am wrong, that means...
i do love this answer too.
but here is a hypothetical:

you have your SL and Target set.
Price is moving very well towards the target.
5 pips from the target price starts making reversal twitches.

Do you hold to target and risk the reversal?
in wondering about yourself, you forgot what you came here to be part of
  • #778,372
  • Sep 27, 2023 5:03am Sep 27, 2023 5:03am
Quoting biodunola07
I have a buy order running on GU though the trend is down and the structure is not yet complete, I just don't consider the current price a good place to sell. I will take profit on my long trade at the daily pivot level around 1.2172 and look for a sell setup around 1.2196 area. That is my focus for GU today
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With patience and discipline,you move beyond the sky
  • #778,373
  • Sep 27, 2023 5:03am Sep 27, 2023 5:03am
Quoting biodunola07
{quote} The trend is down quite alright but GU is due for small correction before downward trend continuation to the next support level at 1.2075. I expect the market to retrace upward before it tanks ( though market can prove anyone wrong). To answer your question , once I plan my trade , I would have calculated my risk and if it is worth taking based on what I see on the chart, I allow the trade to run . in case it hits my stop loss , I have nothing to fear because loss is part of what traders face. I think the psychology of a trader matters in...
Price is indeed going to retrace now, because traders who have been Long every support all the way down and kept losing, now will be afraid to long
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Since it is weekly tf, i wont rush to long, will wait for a 4hr long setup with daily confirmation or a Weekly Close, since Friday is the last day of the month and Quarter
More time in the market, does not mean you trade better!
  • #778,374
  • Sep 27, 2023 5:18am Sep 27, 2023 5:18am
Quoting eyefeelsix
try to diving in the water for 3R {image}

stop-out and stop

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  • #778,375
  • Edited 5:33am Sep 27, 2023 5:18am | Edited 5:33am
Quoting biodunola07
{quote} {image}
Nice plan, I have something similar too.
What is your SL however?

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I want to observe the behaviour at this OB(orange zone)
Face 'ur fears & tame 'ur greed
  • #778,376
  • Edited 5:42am Sep 27, 2023 5:26am | Edited 5:42am
G/M, 5th consecutive bearish-bodied dly candle y/day...chances of a 6th are < 50% on this t/f, on this pairing, - this based on a multi-year large historical sample to this point in time. Doesn't mean to say it can't happen though! 2135 the current dly lo, (@/around Dly S1,) deeper in that prev wkly sw hi zone that extends to circa 2052, = prev res = pot rbs. The prev 1hr minor sw lo zone, = prev supp = pot supp that has developed @ current dly lo has now been tested again to 15min. So, one false upside break of the Asian hi so far, and Asian lo/current dly lo remains intact.

To the downside on dly t/f and below:

a. Prev 4hr sw lo zone circa 2128-11, = prev supp = pot supp, longer-term fib @2116
b. Prev 4hr sw hi zone circa 2112 (@/around Dly S2) -2080
c. Longer-term fib @ 2078
d. Wkly S2 @/around 2070 (@/around Dly S3)
e. Prev 4hr/dly sw lo zone that on dly runs circa 2051-07
Trader with an Edge.
  • #778,377
  • Sep 27, 2023 5:29am Sep 27, 2023 5:29am
The problem GBP/USD chart has currently is that we have three different signals:

1. we are trending down with good retraces, so more down likely
2. we are trending down like someone wants to lose money on the short side and smart money grabs the shorties money
3. Retailers are 73% long (and would be the "smart" money - which is never the case)

So what should you do? I closed my long again 1 pip higer. Why? Well, it is roulette currently with a small bias on the long side (so GBP/USD is more likely to go up but it is very tiny edge in my view).

That's why we all struggle currently. Contradicting signals. Cheers.
  • #778,378
  • Sep 27, 2023 5:31am Sep 27, 2023 5:31am
Quoting knkie
{quote} i do love this answer too. but here is a hypothetical: you have your SL and Target set. Price is moving very well towards the target. 5 pips from the target price starts making reversal twitches. Do you hold to target and risk the reversal?
Good question.
Here is the thing, in trading there is a lot of trade-off decision you need to make.
Personally, I have a TP system in place for various situation.

1. If reached target, TP half and let the other half run, until a certain indicator of mine give a signal when price reversed quite a bit, then EA auto TP for me. In this case, sometimes the other half position end up with less profit than the initial TP, sometimes more when price is moving really strongly, the point is, you secured your TP1, and this TP1 is equal to 1 SL's value, means you can take a SL without going into loss for the month yet. Weakness of this method is, if price moved very strongly, you only have half position open because the other half already TP, but ask yourself how often price move super strong? I find this method more consistent compared to having 100% position open until the end.

2. If doesn't reach target, that certain indicator of mine will still function if price at least moved 50% into my TP1 target, I might end up with 10% or 20% of my TP target and close all of my position, resulting in small profit.

In conclusion, as long as price at least moved quite a distance towards my TP and then reverses, I will still secure some profit.
Otherwise, most probably I will be hitting SL, because price is barely moving towards my direction anyway, it is likely the trade is wrong and I need to accept it as part of the game.

Initial target can be 1.5x or 2x of your SL.
I set to Breakeven after TP1 reached to make sure I dont get any losses.
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  • #778,379
  • Sep 27, 2023 5:32am Sep 27, 2023 5:32am
What's wrong with GBP today?
Secret to the Price Action is Liquidity.
  • #778,380
  • Sep 27, 2023 5:36am Sep 27, 2023 5:36am
...30day adr is down to 85pips,! correct as of today. Price has been creeping generally downwards in this downtrend that extends to dly t/f, possibly even the beginnings of one on wkly,? time will tell. Ranginess right now on 15min and below.

It seems to me that a lot of folk on this thread are waiting/positioning for the 'fabled' large pullback/correction! Since 3142 hi - 200pips is largest p/back (2547-2747,) and since 2747 103pips is the largest (2445-2548.) Price @ current dly lo is over 1000pips down from 3142.

1hr below
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