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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #14,341
  • Jun 5, 2007 5:27am Jun 5, 2007 5:27am
cool numbers goodthings, keep them coming
  • #14,342
  • Jun 5, 2007 7:26am Jun 5, 2007 7:26am
2.00 here we come !!
“Past performance is not indicative of future results”
  • #14,343
  • Jun 5, 2007 7:27am Jun 5, 2007 7:27am
Iya ...NYC trader will do it for us

Quoting gobigo12
2.00 here we come !!
  • #14,344
  • Jun 5, 2007 7:44am Jun 5, 2007 7:44am
If Cable can establish a foothold above 9956 today, we should see 2.00 and possibly 2.0132 in the short-term.

Apart from excellent $ fundamentals I can't see any reason why this scenario shouldn't unfold.

This is just my opinion of course and it lets me down frequently, to my cost. But, getting there, chipping away, little by little, etc. etc. ....
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  • #14,345
  • Jun 5, 2007 8:10am Jun 5, 2007 8:10am
Im no use at fundamentals as well! Here are the fibs!

Chart shows retrace of the downtrend from 18th April. We are now at 61.8% retrace level. Keep an eye on price at 1.9960 area as it may drop
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  • #14,346
  • Jun 5, 2007 8:23am Jun 5, 2007 8:23am
Quoting el_duende
Im no use at fundamentals as well! Here are the fibs!

Chart shows retrace of the downtrend from 18th April. We are now at 61.8% retrace level. Keep an eye on price at 1.9960 area as it may drop
It has already started to drop but prior to 15.00gmt expect a move upwards, usually in line with forecasted figures. Then a bit of up and down followed by stop hunting, then possibly a false move followed by the actual move.
  • #14,347
  • Jun 5, 2007 8:58am Jun 5, 2007 8:58am
usd gaining some strength across the board 5 min prior ISM data.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #14,348
  • Jun 5, 2007 9:31am Jun 5, 2007 9:31am
Quoting goonergonebad
If Cable can establish a foothold above 9956 today, we should see 2.00 and possibly 2.0132 in the short-term.

Apart from excellent $ fundamentals I can't see any reason why this scenario shouldn't unfold.

This is just my opinion of course and it lets me down frequently, to my cost. But, getting there, chipping away, little by little, etc. etc. ....
I know that news was much better than expected but I think market mindset is fixed NORTH.

For my forecast, still looking for a close above yesterday - better still above 9956.
  • #14,349
  • Jun 5, 2007 9:59am Jun 5, 2007 9:59am
intense moments for gu and eu earlier after ISM leading to nowhere.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #14,350
  • Jun 5, 2007 10:04am Jun 5, 2007 10:04am
Quoting gobigo12
2.00 here we come !!
i see you are enjoying the ride thus far.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #14,351
  • Jun 5, 2007 10:33am Jun 5, 2007 10:33am
Quoting bravado
i see you are enjoying the ride thus far.
just closed both my buys an hour and a half ago.
taking a smaller buy soon if it doesn't break below 9915 on next few dips.
if not I'm not getting in until it drops more.
thinking maybe it will head down some more before correcting and then heading to 2.00.
have a buy stop set up at 9950 if she runs up again in the next day or so.
“Past performance is not indicative of future results”
  • #14,352
  • Jun 5, 2007 11:22am Jun 5, 2007 11:22am
in this trend, we might see a nice step upwards.
now 9930-32 should hold up we will see a nice climb up to 9965 area again.
if it breaks below back down to 9915

lets see what unfolds on this small scale.
“Past performance is not indicative of future results”
  • #14,353
  • Edited 1:26pm Jun 5, 2007 12:14pm | Edited 1:26pm
In spite of the great result of the NFP & ISMs the Dollar is still being under attack! But, how far that attack will go?
If the interest rates (for Eur & GBP) will come as expected without hawkish comments then we may see the cable dropping again to the 97 zone.
I think, with today good news, NY must close at price around 1.99
======================

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  • #14,354
  • Jun 5, 2007 2:19pm Jun 5, 2007 2:19pm
I am puzzled. (again by fundamentals)

Bernanke says today pretty much an interest rate cut will not happen. He is more worried about inflation that if it doesnt moderate may lead to a rate hike. Housing as we know is in bad shape. So more chance of rate hike than rate cut.

T-notesyields/bonds have hit highs. Normally good for $ strength I believe

Dow Jones today 100 + points down as are other markets about 1-2% down. In recent times we have seen DOW etc when it rises $ falls in value in a generalistic way.

Some news today $ positive (ISM reports)


So why have we seen more $ losses today? I was short and lost money and in my mind we should still be short.

Help any news people. Cesarnc or Bravado you normally have a good view what am I missing in my fundys?

edit - should add EUR and GBP interest rate announcements due but surely these already priced in.
  • #14,355
  • Jun 5, 2007 2:33pm Jun 5, 2007 2:33pm
Ive just checked USD/CAD - The one where its making new 30 year lows. Today USD/CAD has gone up lol

I think I may quit fundys and techy and try my hand at studying price action and fibs
  • #14,356
  • Jun 5, 2007 2:36pm Jun 5, 2007 2:36pm
They don't call them funnymentals for nothing. I gave up trying figure them out for time being myself, maybe one day trading will make me loony enough to understand them more clearly.
  • #14,357
  • Jun 5, 2007 2:42pm Jun 5, 2007 2:42pm
There's a clutch of fundamentals overlapped. USD again trading mixed, sometimes stronger on the expectation of a hike (which pull dow jones down), sometimes on the expectation of a cut. Today we've had mixed data again, good ISM, bad Bernanke, Paulson B.S. Gotta check how the market is trading dollar in the next days.

In the other hand, GBP is in the waiting for BOE rate statement: a) expected unchanged, but the attention will be on how hawkish/dovish the statement will be versus last BOE minuties 9-0 and b) BOE is known for getting the market backfooted. And Euro in the verge of another hike, but looking for clues on how soon a possible next hike will come.

This is a decisive week for all of them.

While they decide what's next, UJ and Yen crosses are at pretty good prices to long now. Nice R:R. As I use to say: Stop whining, go where the cash is flowing.

Quoting el_duende
I am puzzled. (again by fundamentals)

Bernanke says today pretty much an interest rate cut will not happen. He is more worried about inflation that if it doesnt moderate may lead to a rate hike. Housing as we know is in bad shape. So more chance of rate hike than rate cut.

T-notesyields/bonds have hit highs. Normally good for $ strength I believe

Dow Jones today 100 + points down as are other markets about 1-2% down. In recent times we have seen DOW etc when it rises $ falls in value in a generalistic way.

Some news today $ positive (ISM reports)


So why have we seen more $ losses today? I was short and lost money and in my mind we should still be short.

Help any news people. Cesarnc or Bravado you normally have a good view what am I missing in my fundys?

edit - should add EUR and GBP interest rate announcements due but surely these already priced in.
  • #14,358
  • Edited 3:03pm Jun 5, 2007 2:53pm | Edited 3:03pm
Hi cesarnc.(or anyone using this indicator)
i downloaded your daily pivots indicator ,can i use it on any currency pair without changing anything. thankyou.
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #14,359
  • Jun 5, 2007 3:02pm Jun 5, 2007 3:02pm
Quoting el_duende
Cesarnc or Bravado you normally have a good view what am I missing in my fundys?
what's more important is how the masses interpret the news then what the data actually implies and the circumstances surrounding the day of the news that could over shadow the economic data.

ISM merely suggests what the state of inflationary pressure is and therefore hints at possible rate increase or cut.

//

fundamental analysis should be used for longer term trading with perhaps heftier stop loss and scrutinizing money management and you must have a good knowledge of interpreting the existing, new and expected future data.

trading off new data only knowing it has a good chance to move the market often will prove to be counter productive in this business.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #14,360
  • Jun 5, 2007 3:06pm Jun 5, 2007 3:06pm
Quoting BIL2205
Hi cesarnc.(or anyone using this indicator)
i downloaded your daily pivots indicator ,can i use it on any currency pair without changing anything. thankyou.
Yes you can. Just load to the chart you want. You can change the period, too. Default is 1440 (daily)
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