Cable Update (GBPUSD)

Time to trade this week, looking to see how market behaves for Monday . Good luck to all

Weekend Gap up +20pips

If you are tracking the GBPUSD this week, consider this technical outlook by a medium-term swing trader. GBPUSD price action on the daily time frame restored its bearish mode after breaking down a minor area of consolidation on Wednesday. This was followed with a bearish breakdown of the 1.24100/1.23120 horizontal support zone (blue) seen on the weekly time frame. Although, presently, price action is at another horizontal support area, which is not as significant as the 1.24100/1.23120 zone, any northward move would be corrective and temporary as the technical structure is bearish.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

where

IG markets opens 1hr earlier and closes 1hr later

Spread is 20pips

GU short 1.2245

Let's close the gap

no gap

Closed already

Long trade taken above 2228.

To close the gap, one has to give 10 pips + spread.

im placing buy limits at 2230,2225 and 2220 but will buy on a signal on 4H manually cause im boolish

If anyone cares for the bigger picture in GU but also what might happen in the short term. Last week we had a break of 1.23, which is significant, since it confirmed that the drop from the 1.31 high is now the first impulse of a new structure and the previous uptrend is broken for the time being. What is this new structure? Most likely a 3 wave corrective structure of the whole upmove from 1.03 to 1.31.

So what we can expect next, after the first impulse has finished, is a corrective upmove potentially up to the 1.26-27 region and then another impulse to the downside to around 1.15. Do I think this upmove is ready yet? No. I think at the start of this week we could go up a bit but then get another drop down to 1.215. From there we might see a bigger correction unfold over the next few weeks before the inevitable drop down to 1.15 or even lower, while the dxy probably breaks 110 and EU goes back to parity. This will obviously take a few months but after that we are probably ready for the next big upmove which can take us all the way up to 1.5.

Also as a reminder, structures can change but right now fundamentals dont support any kind of weakness in the dollar in the medium term but a correction is certainly due. What might be the reason, I dont know. Maybe boe will hike again since cpi is still elevated and fed could pause again until december but I dont see GU dropping straight down to 1.15 without correction. Thats not how markets usually behave but even if it keeps dropping thats not my trade until I get a clear setup with good risk/reward. Hope that helps.

it's hard to trade against the momentum, better I short on pull-back, if there is one..

i dont know jack shit about ewave cause when i learned ralph elliot never traded his creation and died broke because he just sold signals to rich folk that probably lost money i dropped that concept in a second.

but your levels match my stupidly simple system so we're probably right

Or simply wait for a better setup.

yes, if only trade in GU only, there are still many many opportunities in other pairs

Alright still short

Long 1.2238 SL 1.2228

As I said last weekend, GU will go sideways because data for GU and USD was mixed.
Next EU news will set a direction for GU. There are more chances for the Bearish trend because price retested 1.22499 already. We can see a downtrend with EU news.
EU effects GU because of its connection with Europe.