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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #777,641
  • Edited 11:10am Sep 23, 2023 10:48am | Edited 11:10am
just checking pa , presently price on a floating / supposed support , ready to break , at 1.2225 , may get good support below 1.220 . say 1.2180/60/40 or low. and present monthly candle may do a correction pullback before 3 rd candle likely ranging to decision making down or not , but likely range down . weekly , having good support 1950, 1770 !

afterall price doing sideways having big ranges in a supposed bottom formation . present leg likely more up too after correction end!
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #777,642
  • Sep 23, 2023 11:00am Sep 23, 2023 11:00am
Quoting Headland
Interestingly, on Friday there was no 1hr+ close below that Mthly S3 pivot which is @/around 2240, (as there was no 30min+ close below Friday's Dly S1.) This said, as Bones pointed out the three black crows and last week's wkly bearish thrust candle and shaven head on it, and the dly bearish thust close are suggestive of more downside at some point. Whether this is actually the higher probability on this t/f (wkly) on this gbpusd pairing (based on empirical large multi-year sample evidence) I don't know, but it at least has that feel does it not?...
It just means that the farther it gets stretched, the steeper the rebound. Am I right?
"No trade is still a trade." - Peter Borish
  • #777,643
  • Sep 23, 2023 11:49am Sep 23, 2023 11:49am
GU: H1
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Intraday Trading is an Art _ hoda
  • #777,644
  • Sep 23, 2023 11:54am Sep 23, 2023 11:54am
Quoting hoda
GU: H1 {image}
The trend is down but price on a support.

A likely scenario... a good retrace as soon as market opens.
Intraday only.
  • #777,645
  • Sep 23, 2023 12:22pm Sep 23, 2023 12:22pm
Quoting navk
{quote} The trend is down but price on a support. A likely scenario... a good retrace as soon as market opens.
I'm targeting 1.2270
  • #777,646
  • Sep 23, 2023 12:26pm Sep 23, 2023 12:26pm
Quoting shakmoney
{quote} I'm targeting 1.2270
Good.

You started doing analysis now instead of asking someone else.
Intraday only.
  • #777,647
  • Sep 23, 2023 12:28pm Sep 23, 2023 12:28pm
On both EUR/USD and GBP/USD, all TF's are Short and in Sell Zone.
This is still a completely Bearish picture!

Problem with catching retracements is that it is unnecessary.. it's much wiser to just keep adding Short on every pullback then to risk catching retracements in my opinion especially when you know price has more room to fall and eventually will. However, some are doing a good job catching those retracements so...

Expecting GBP/USD at 1.215 this week 120% and EUR/USD at 1.048 79%.
  • #777,648
  • Sep 23, 2023 12:41pm Sep 23, 2023 12:41pm
No one will say hourly chart is bullish.

No one will say 4 hr chart is bullish,

No one will say daily chart is bullish either.

But the success comes based on trade entires + risk managment \
+

trading from Pull back area.
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Intraday only.
  • #777,649
  • Sep 23, 2023 12:43pm Sep 23, 2023 12:43pm
Quoting navk
{quote} The trend is down but price on a support. A likely scenario... a good retrace as soon as market opens.
Sorry friend, It's Strong Down Trend.
Monday will start with a gap down. (May be I am wrong).
Till now price can't find it support/bottom/Reversal BASE. When I found Reversal area/PA on my chart, I will post.
Buy scalping is ok for few pip's. Every day price creating a new lo and retail trader's are burning their account's.
Intraday Trading is an Art _ hoda
  • #777,650
  • Sep 23, 2023 12:53pm Sep 23, 2023 12:53pm
Quoting hoda
{quote} Sorry friend, It's Strong Down Trend. Monday will start with a gap down. (May be I am wrong). Till now price can't find it support/bottom/Reversal BASE. When I found Reversal area/PA on my chart, I will post. Buy scalping is ok for few pip's. Every day price creating a new lo and retail trader's are burning their account's.
yes, every day price creating new lows.

The price created new low on friday..retraced up...to fall again, but never broke the low.

That gives me a clue it will retrace up.

But..as you said, i agree with you if the price opens with gap down.
Intraday only.
  • #777,651
  • Sep 23, 2023 12:59pm Sep 23, 2023 12:59pm
I trade what I see without emotion. I am 1m scalper but my analysis based on higher time fame 1H-1W.
Below my 1M chart.(Friday).
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Intraday Trading is an Art _ hoda
  • #777,652
  • Sep 23, 2023 1:16pm Sep 23, 2023 1:16pm
Quoting navk
No one will say hourly chart is bullish. No one will say 4 hr chart is bullish, No one will say daily chart is bullish either. But the success comes based on trade entires + risk managment \ + trading from Pull back area. {image} {image} {image}
None of the TFs from M1-MN are bullish. Even M1 has just made a 3-bar swing low and nothing more.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #777,653
  • Sep 23, 2023 1:19pm Sep 23, 2023 1:19pm
Quoting DrDave
{quote} None of the TFs from M1-MN are bullish. Even M1 has just made a 3-bar swing low and nothing more.
There is a strong reaction point on weekly
@ 1.22184
In my opinion ofcours
in wondering about yourself, you forgot what you came here to be part of
  • #777,654
  • Sep 23, 2023 1:24pm Sep 23, 2023 1:24pm
Quoting DrDave
{quote} None of the TFs from M1-MN are bullish. Even M1 has just made a 3-bar swing low and nothing more.
Anything which goes down..has to go up.

This is theory.

Who would have expected Euro to go up from 0.9519 all the way upto 1.1039 ...

And who knew the drop is over at 0.9519 ?

Chart posted
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Intraday only.
  • #777,655
  • Sep 23, 2023 1:32pm Sep 23, 2023 1:32pm
It all depends what one wants ?

If I need 20 pips, i must have proper 1/5 min system

If i need 30/40 pips, I need to have proper 15/30/60 min system

If I need more, I need to have 1hr/4hr, daily systems.

And the pullback starts at 1 min chart.

Remember that
Intraday only.
  • #777,656
  • Edited 2:10pm Sep 23, 2023 2:00pm | Edited 2:10pm
Quoting navk
{quote} Anything which goes down..has to go up. This is theory. Who would have expected Euro to go up from 0.9519 all the way upto 1.1039 ... And who knew the drop is over at 0.9519 ? Chart posted {image}
For adherents to a chaos model of the markets, there are no expectations for where price will stop. Only limits that are highly unlikely to be breached at a specified scaling ("zoom") factor. And the high of 1.1039 starting from the low of 0.9519 is no more expected than any other price that is above that low. Likewise, the low of 0.9519 could not be known that it is THE low at a specified scaling factor until sometime after it was posted.

This is why playing "follow the leader" and waiting for a retracement to "prove the move" is a better route to stable returns with minor equity curve fluctuations than "guessing" that a swing point has been reached.

In addition, it is impossible to know WHEN the "going down" has stopped and the "going up" starts. It is only known after it is observable that the move up has retraced to a higher low that the earlier low was indeed when the "going up" started.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #777,657
  • Sep 23, 2023 2:05pm Sep 23, 2023 2:05pm
Quoting navk
It all depends what one wants ? If I need 20 pips, i must have proper 1/5 min system If i need 30/40 pips, I need to have proper 15/30/60 min system If I need more, I need to have 1hr/4hr, daily systems. And the pullback starts at 1 min chart. Remember that
And adding to that, remember that there is a scaling factor involved. So the amount of capital needed to survive a retracement must be scaled up as the TF of interest goes up.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #777,658
  • Sep 23, 2023 2:36pm Sep 23, 2023 2:36pm
SP500

Critical Support @ ~4235.

If this Support doesn't hold this month or in October, we have a confirmed start of recession according to the system.

It's been quite lately... we'll see..
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  • #777,659
  • Sep 23, 2023 4:39pm Sep 23, 2023 4:39pm
Quoting DrDave
{quote} For adherents to a chaos model of the markets, there are no expectations for where price will stop. Only limits that are highly unlikely to be breached at a specified scaling ("zoom") factor. And the high of 1.1039 starting from the low of 0.9519 is no more expected than any other price that is above that low. Likewise, the low of 0.9519 could not be known that it is THE low at a specified scaling factor until sometime after it was posted. This is why playing "follow the leader" and waiting for a retracement to "prove the move" is a better...
Agree with you.

Being a retail trader, I can not be expecting a 1000 pip move, nether my emotions will allow.

The best expectations i have is :

1:2
1:4
Sometimes 1 : 6
Intraday only.
  • #777,660
  • Sep 23, 2023 4:52pm Sep 23, 2023 4:52pm
A few days ago, I did get 1: 8 and that is the time, I passed ph1 in a single shot.

Usually, If i expect more than 1 : 4, the price comes back to me... not only that..it takes my stop .

Intraday only.
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