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MA Crossover System that works for me

  • #1,221
  • Sep 18, 2023 1:18pm Sep 18, 2023 1:18pm
Quoting AlistairC
We have a "pinch" .... my money is on a break downward. {image} {image}
a simple question . will you go short at the upper end of the pinch or the lower end ?
  • #1,222
  • Sep 18, 2023 1:43pm Sep 18, 2023 1:43pm
Quoting AlistairC
The trick is to catch it One option is to place a stop order above/below (or both) of the consolidation, well out of reach of any false breaks. {image} {image}
i dont nderstannd the trick ? please elaborate

  • #1,223
  • Sep 18, 2023 2:48pm Sep 18, 2023 2:48pm
Quoting walvekarraje
{quote} a simple question . will you go short at the upper end of the pinch or the lower end ?
Quoting walvekarraje
{quote} i dont nderstannd the trick ? please elaborate
A pinch is just my term for a normal consolidation, but because we use EMAs in a visual way, we can see that the EMAs are very close together. When we get such a situation, a breakout is very common.

The standard strategy for trading a breakout is to draw trend lines above and below the consolidation and to place a stop order outside one or both of those trend lines. If it is clear which way the break is likely to go, then just one stop order is required. The trick I was referring to isn't a "trick" (sorry, that's a figure of speech one might use in English that doesn't translate well). It is to avoid being prematurely triggered by a false break, so the stop order needs to be a safe distance beyond the trend line.

This H4 example shows a very long pinch and the breakout is explosive. The trend lines help define where the edges of the consolidation zone are and the stop order needs to be (on H4) at least 10 pips away from that. Giving away or sacrificing those 10 or so pips is nothing compared to what we get from the eventual breakout. In the example below the consolidation / pinch goes on for a long time, so it is easy to be triggered far too soon and possibly get into trouble, which is why giving it the extra space is necessary. That's the "trick". The daily chart is below this one and the consolidation zone is just visible in the centre of the chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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This is an extreme example of a pinch. Just looking at it we have no idea which way it is likely to break, and looking at the daily it isn't much clearer, except that price does seem to be edging up.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,224
  • Edited 1:13am Sep 19, 2023 12:19am | Edited 1:13am
Quoting AlistairC
This is interesting, and what should one do with it? These two AUD pairs are heading in opposite directions on all three times frames AND the plus/minus signs show that the EMAs themselves are also sloping in the opposite directions, without exception. (This is using the 2x3 method - but with 8/10/21 EMAs, which is as close as I can get this to a standard 8/21 crossover setup). I suppose the official answer is to examine each one carefully, go through all the safety checks and if they pass all the checks, then trade them. I would still feel anxious...
Of these two, I got lucky and did not trade AUDNZD (it seemed like AUD was bearish across most AUD pairs) but did go with AUDCAD.

One of my safety checks is not to trade into S/R, and this trade has a support level not far below my entry, so normally I would have walked away from it. However, that level had been sitting there for some time and I took the risk that it would break this time. So far, it has worked out and hopefully the support can now be called resistance, which makes the trade safer.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,225
  • Sep 19, 2023 1:49am Sep 19, 2023 1:49am
I have found that using the 2x3 or 3x3 method gives me much more confidence that a trade will go in the right direction, even when it pulls back into the danger zone. Previously I would have started feeling stressed and taken evasive action like closing a portion of it to reduce risk. Now I can be more relaxed about it, knowing that very likely it will come back to me.

Of course, in the past a quick flip though the different timeframes would have given me the same info, but to have it nicely summarised on the OGT dashboard or the EMA Trader info box is so much easier and better.
  • #1,226
  • Sep 20, 2023 9:03am Sep 20, 2023 9:03am
Quoting AlistairC
We have a "pinch" on AUDUSD H4 where the EMAs are all close to each other, basically a consolidation. Breakouts from consolidation are very common, so we can expect a breakout at some stage. The trick is to catch it. One option is to place a stop order above/below (or both) of the consolidation, well out of reach of any false breaks. Another is to wait for the usual pullback and then enter. We don't know which way it will break, but as D1, W1 and MN1 are all bearish, my money is on a break downward. {image} {image}
It broke the other way, but I didn't trade it because it is against the dominant trend.
  • #1,227
  • Edited 1:10am Sep 21, 2023 12:33am | Edited 1:10am
Quoting AlistairC
{quote} It broke the other way, but I didn't trade it because it is against the dominant trend.
Very dominant!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd h4.png Size: 16 KB
  • #1,228
  • Sep 21, 2023 1:27pm Sep 21, 2023 1:27pm
Quoting AlistairC
{quote} Very dominant! {image}
i will trade AUDUSD on daily timeframe as per rules of the thread......
daily candle close below 8 ema...

  • #1,229
  • Sep 21, 2023 1:35pm Sep 21, 2023 1:35pm
Quoting AlistairC
{quote} It broke the other way, but I didn't trade it because it is against the dominant trend.
and it did go with your dominant trade .... i suppose you were watching this pair .... did you trade this ?
  • #1,230
  • Sep 21, 2023 1:45pm Sep 21, 2023 1:45pm
Quoting AlistairC
We have a "pinch" on AUDUSD H4 where the EMAs are all close to each other, basically a consolidation. Breakouts from consolidation are very common, so we can expect a breakout at some stage. The trick is to catch it. One option is to place a stop order above/below (or both) of the consolidation, well out of reach of any false breaks. Another is to wait for the usual pullback and then enter. We don't know which way it will break, but as D1, W1 and MN1 are all bearish, my money is on a break downward. {image} {image}
how did your pinch work out ?
  • #1,231
  • Sep 21, 2023 1:54pm Sep 21, 2023 1:54pm
MA Crossover System that works for me

please show some trades in real time .... with chart.... explaination of entry/stoploss/ target.

let us know how well it works for you ....
  • #1,232
  • Edited 2:51am Sep 22, 2023 2:39am | Edited 2:51am
Quoting walvekarraje
MA Crossover System that works for me please show some trades in real time .... with chart.... explaination of entry/stoploss/ target. let us know how well it works for you ....
I have had no suitable trades the last two days, but I can report that I have made 7% profit on my account so far this month.

Most of the trades that comply with the 3x3 method are in very long / old trends at present and some are at extreme levels, so I am not keen to trade any of those even when valid signals come up. It leaves me with very few that I can trade without going against my own safety checklist - I have traded some of those anyway but I can't post them here. When I get a signal that is suitable I will post it with explanations.
  • #1,233
  • Sep 22, 2023 4:29am Sep 22, 2023 4:29am
GBP is bearish across the board. This one (GBPCHF) has caught my attention because there is a lot of "energy" stored up in that consolidation zone. If it closes below the S/R level on the daily I'll look for a suitable entry. One option will be to place a sell limit order at the S/R level to catch a possible pullback. Or else just the usual 3x3 setup.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,234
  • Sep 22, 2023 7:36am Sep 22, 2023 7:36am
Quoting Uru-trader
Could this be a turning point in USDCHF currency pair? Price is now above 100 MA on 1D, on the weekly chart we see 8 consecutive week of rising price and breaking the downward trendline of the past 6 months, at what point would you consider this a reversal? {image} {image}
Last hurdle before a potential rise to 0,94?
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  • #1,235
  • Sep 22, 2023 7:51am Sep 22, 2023 7:51am
Quoting Uru-trader
{quote} Last hurdle before a potential rise to 0,94? {image}
This resistance level is quite a significant hurdle, but once it breaks above that it has quite a lot of clean space to move into. Good luck and hoping for the best!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf d1.png Size: 16 KB
  • #1,236
  • Sep 23, 2023 10:37am Sep 23, 2023 10:37am
Quoting AlistairC
I have found that using the 2x3 or 3x3 method gives me much more confidence that a trade will go in the right direction
as you said
"Of course, in the past a quick flip though the different timeframes would have given me the same info, but to have it nicely summarised on the OGT dashboard or the EMA Trader info box is so much easier and better."

just a weekeng exercise of usung 2x3 method on a single chart using ma in color mtf indicator .....

Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 RAJESH MA IN COLOR 2.mq4   9 KB | 242 downloads

Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 RAJESH Ma in color (mtf) D1.mq4   11 KB | 254 downloads

Attached File(s)
File Type: tpl spudfan 2x3.tpl   4 KB | 221 downloads


may be you need not flip through diffrent timeframes if you can see all the info in a single chart.

please note... 1. i have been using ma in color mtf indicator for my trading since long....
2. i have renamed and modified it to my convinience.... all due respect to the original coder.


Alistair sir, you are very good at mannual backtesting and i respect you for that ( i know this from our guppy thread)

  • #1,237
  • Sep 25, 2023 1:13am Sep 25, 2023 1:13am
Quoting walvekarraje
MA Crossover System that works for me please show some trades in real time .... with chart.... explaination of entry/stoploss/ target. let us know how well it works for you ....
I received a sell signal from version 12 of eurusd-thijs's EMAs Trader this morning when I switched on. I went through my safety checklist. The only concern is the long leg down on the daily, but that has been though a refresh / shakeout, so no big deal there. Also, price has been dropping since early 2021, so I also considered whether it has reached the end of that road, but once again, I don't think that's an issue - it's not near the bottom and has plenty of space to go down into.

This trade follows the 3x3 method (3 EMAs aligned across 3 TFs, see the OGT dashboard strip), but in fact W1 and MN1 are also aligned so make that 3 x 5! Seems the force is with me in a big way.

SL at 44 pips - it is above the most recent swing H4 high with some extra space for comfort. TP is at 53 pips - not at the lowest recent value, but a bit up from there in case price reverses before getting all the way down to the recent daily lowest level. So here we go ...

So @walvekarraje, that's about it. Is there anything I might have missed out in my explanation?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd d1.png Size: 17 KB
  • #1,238
  • Sep 25, 2023 3:15am Sep 25, 2023 3:15am
Here's a trade (CADJPY) that got a valid signal but I did not take it because it is at a high price level (buyers getting cautious, sellers getting interested?) and also right below strong resistance. First are the top parts of D1 and W1 charts showing the high level and resistance, followed by H4. Note the OGT strip at the bottom of the H4 chart - very promising, but dangerous if you follow it blindly.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cadjpy d1.png Size: 8 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: cadjpy w1.png Size: 9 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: cadjpy h4.png Size: 15 KB
  • #1,239
  • Sep 25, 2023 7:35am Sep 25, 2023 7:35am
Then comes the most difficult part: at what point do you decide to stop a trade, USD is very strong, I have a trailing stop at 150 pips, if we get through this point, next target would be 0,94 ... to be or not to be?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,240
  • Edited 8:30am Sep 25, 2023 8:06am | Edited 8:30am
Quoting Uru-trader
Then comes the most difficult part: at what point do you decide to stop a trade, USD is very strong, I have a trailing stop at 150 pips, if we get through this point, next target would be 0,94 ... to be or not to be? {image}
This is indeed the most difficult part. You're already up by 300 pips - that's an amazing trade already. (Well, I think it's amazing!).

Either you exit according to some known and clear rules, then your own discretion and emotion don't have to come into it. Or else you have to balance out many different factors - is price overbought, is it up against resistance, likely to pullback soon, what does the daily or the weekly tell me about possible future movements, can I cope with the emotional challenge of letting it drop back in the hope or belief that it will continue further up if I leave it long enough? Etc. But I think the main questions now are more about you and your psychological make-up. I know I don't cope well with the stress of leaving a trade running for a long time. So I tend to go for nearby targets and, ideally, get out before the first pullback. But you seem to be made of stronger steel. You have to decide!
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