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Interesting GBP/USD MA Crossover system 178 replies

If it works, it works... 3 replies

Need help with MA crossover system 15 replies

A "different" crossover system - 600 pips on Friday alone in EUR and GBP 48 replies

Scalping with crossover system 0 replies

Attachments: MA Crossover System that works for me
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MA Crossover System that works for me

USDJPY H4 Setup
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Entry on M15
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Leave the Gun, Take the Armani
Quoting cliffjaded
USDJPY H4 Setup {image} Entry on M15 {image}
Stopped out because i forgot to move to breakeven. In any case, it's still a failed setup.
Leave the Gun, Take the Armani
Quoting cliffjaded
I scan for trends using 8/20 emas. I draw trendlines and wait for a trendline break. After the break, I will drill down 1 or 2 timeframes below, and enter with an inside bar (Breakout-Pullback-Continuation / BPC) or wait for the retest of the trendline (Breakout-Pullback-Retest - BPR).
It's interesting that even with almost the same EMAs being used, your approach has significant differences. For entries you use breaks of trendlines, and by drilling down to LTFs, I assume that the EMA crossover on your trading TF hasn't developed much further? What do you do for confirmation that there is a new trend in place?

Quoting cliffjaded
I will not post intraday setups often and focus on the OP's swing approach because I don't want to detract from his original method. I will post some relevant intraday setups when they coincide with larger trends just to explore how bigger R:R can be attained. Or at least i hope so
Thank you, yes please, do stick to the swing type trades. I am finding that at present such trades are very few and far between. Most H4 charts are either showing very long trends (old ones, likely to go wobbly soon), and many are at chart extremes, or else they have given signals but the D1 price action is still in the opposite direction. It feels like we are waiting for something to break, but it hasn't happened yet.
USDJPY H4 Setup
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Entry on H1
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Approaching TP of 138.2%.

Edit: TP reached. And before incoming news too.
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Leave the Gun, Take the Armani
This one is ambitious.

EURUSD D1/H4 Setup
D1
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H4
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I waited for the break of the D1/H4 trendline. Then i waited for price to retrace to the back of that trendline on H1.
H1
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I further drilled down to M5 and drew another trendline and waited for that break and entered. Overall target is the D1/H4 138.2% for a 1:20 R:R. Very ambitious but that's the whole point of drilling down to a lower TF. I can comfortably set to break even and just trail now.
M5
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If you didn't want to drill down to M5, you could take a more swing type entry on H4 or H1. Wait for a full body red candle break, then a up green candle. It can retrace to the back of the trendline, or it can be an inside bar (which indicates a more breakout situation). Set stop orders and set targets using fibs or even weekly highs lows since this is a swing strategy.
Leave the Gun, Take the Armani
Quoting AlistairC
I assume that the EMA crossover on your trading TF hasn't developed much further? What do you do for confirmation that there is a new trend in place?
Yeap, the EMA hasn't travelled further. If you wait for the EMA to travel further, you're at risk of missing the move. But your style of entry would be more suitable for that. I'm trying to enter near to the point of retracement. You can add confluences such as S/R levels, Significant levels (Previous Weekly and Monthly High/Lows), Fib retracements. I don't have any confirmation if a new trend is in place. I eat the loss and move on lol. I will enter a max of two times. If I get stopped twice, then i abandon the setup. Because of my LTF entry, I am able to secure a greater than 1:2 R:R which allows me to cover a sequence of losses. The idea is to successfully catch a few big R:R trades which will hopefully override the small shitty losses - let the edge play out.

A new trend is when a new 8/20 cross over and retracement happens. Or, i just go find another pair and timeframe. MT5 would actually more suitable for this due to so many more timeframes available to comfortably swing trade.

Quote
Thank you, yes please, do stick to the swing type trades. I am finding that at present such trades are very few and far between. Most H4 charts are either showing very long trends (old ones, likely to go wobbly soon), and many are at chart extremes, or else they have given signals but the D1 price action is still in the opposite direction. It feels like we are waiting for something to break, but it hasn't happened yet.

Posted 2 H4 trades for you. One of them TP'd already
Leave the Gun, Take the Armani
Quoting cliffjaded
This one is ambitious. EURUSD D1/H4 Setup D1 {image} H4 {image} I waited for the break of the D1/H4 trendline. Then i waited for price to retrace to the back of that trendline on H1. H1 {image} I further drilled down to M5 and drew another trendline and waited for that break and entered. Overall target is the D1/H4 138.2% for a 1:20 R:R. Very ambitious but that's the whole point of drilling down to a lower TF. I can comfortably set to break even and just trail now. M5 {image} If you didn't want to drill down to M5, you could take a more swing type...
Stopped out at break even due to news. Could have aimed for a smaller target. Oh well. Live and learn.
Leave the Gun, Take the Armani
I hope i'm not detracting too much from your original method too much @AlistairC. I'll stick to swing setups H1 and above. I just want to show a different method of entry. I will stick to very clean simple setups. It's essentially a breakout and retest strategy with 8/20ema as the trend filter.
Leave the Gun, Take the Armani
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Leave the Gun, Take the Armani
Quoting cliffjaded
{image} {image} {image} {image}
I didn't realise you had posted this. I'm in the same trade!

D1 is in a strong and well-developed uptrend, in fact a bit old and it's one reason I have hesitated in the past. On H4 price and the 2 EMAs are above the 100 EMA so when I got a bullish crossover signal I looked for a suitable entry. Now at B/E.
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Quoting cliffjaded
I hope i'm not detracting too much from your original method too much @AlistairC. I'll stick to swing setups H1 and above. I just want to show a different method of entry. I will stick to very clean simple setups. It's essentially a breakout and retest strategy with 8/20ema as the trend filter.
I'm fine with it as it is in essence an MA crossover system. Have you seen how walvekarraje uses the fibos for targets on this thread? https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...7#post14452337
Quoting AlistairC
{quote} I'm fine with it as it is in essence an MA crossover system. Have you seen how walvekarraje uses the fibos for targets on this thread? https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...7#post14452337
Take a look at this canabilised ichimoku system ( one trend line) - might interest you. Apologies for digression from your original post.
Video from about 25:25
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Take a look at this canabilised ichimoku system ( one trend line) - might interest you. Apologies for digression from your original post. Video from about 25:25 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5a8oHcG1DUc
The Ichimoku system intrigues many traders but I don't know if anyone uses it successfully and consistently. The adaptation shown in the video is basically a single line / price crossover using just one line from the many in Ichimoku, the Kijun-sen.

So it ends up being a variation on what many traders use, which is a single MA system, trading when price crosses an MA. In fact, an MA of 1 is basically the same as the actual price, so we could say this is an MA of 1 period (i.e. price) crossing an MA of xx periods (commonly 50). And so it's not a major digression from what we are doing except that in this video example we are using an Ichimoku line, not an MA . The basic rule for the Kijun-sen system is to enter when price closes on the other side of the Kijun-sen and exit the trade when it does the opposite. There's more to it from about minute 29 in the video where he refers to a baseline.

This is what it looks like - you'll have to click on the chart to see the line because it's quite dark to see on the thumbnail image here.
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Quoting AlistairC
{quote} The Ichimoku system intrigues many traders but I don't know if anyone uses it successfully and consistently. The adaptation shown in the video is basically a single line / price crossover using just one line from the many in Ichimoku, the Kijun-sen. So it ends up being a variation on what many traders use, which is a single MA system, trading when price crosses an MA. In fact, an MA of 1 is basically the same as the actual price, so we could say this is an MA of 1 period (i.e. price) crossing an MA of xx periods (commonly 50). And so it's...
Thanks for the prompt reply and analysis Alistair. Much appreciated.
I din't want to mention baselines etc just to keep it simple, but if you think it important I will have a look. But the chart you have put up on the line alone is impressive
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Thanks for the prompt reply and analysis Alistair. Much appreciated. I din't want to mention baselines etc just to keep it simple, but if you think it important I will have a look. But the chart you have put up on the line alone is impressive
Let's not delve into this; it's an interesting one but I'd prefer not to follow it. There be rabbit holes. But it's out there for fellow traders to explore at home, if that takes their fancy, both the price / MA cross idea and the price / Kijun-sen idea. Incidentally, to create a chart with just the Kijun-sen line on it, load the full Ichimoku system and set the colours of all the other components to None

Having spent some time looking at this system I don't want to endorse it.
I entered this AUDNZD trade on H4 earlier today. I used a buy limit order, which I seldom do, in order to get in close to the EMAs. Now I have to hope it really does turn around and go with the dominant trend. As security, the entry is sitting right on a support level.
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Using the 3x3 system (3 EMAs aligned across 3 TFs) there is very little going on. I am waiting for a flood of these trades to start appearing maybe during next week.
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Quoting cliffjaded
Example of target (which i just missed on EURUSD M15 ). I normally target 138.2%. You have to draw the fib in reverse, from the breakout point (100%) to the retracement point (0%). You can see on price just hit 138.2%. {image} What's usually happening price breaksout at 100% and rushes towards 138.2%. Then, profit-taking happens and price retraces back to the point of breakout at 100%. At that point, you can consider a second entry (your standard S/R breakout retest entry) but I don't because of unfavourable R:R. You also might get taken...
I have been looking at how you use the fibos to set targets. As I mentioned previously it looks very similar to how walvekarraje does it. Could you give me an idea of what your typical target size in pips is on H4?
Quoting AlistairC
Using the 3x3 system (3 EMAs aligned across 3 TFs) there is very little going on. I am waiting for a flood of these trades to start appearing maybe during next week. {image}
And then there was one.
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I have just received this signal on GBPCHF H4 showing all 3 EMAs are now aligned. But I won't take it because on D1 the trend is still down. The OGT indicator at the bottom shows this, and a glance at the daily chart itself confirms it. It might work, but hope isn't the best way to make money. Rather be more certain (and then hope for the best ).
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