{quote}Box + Nuts = ?? {image} + {image} = {image}
- #9,302
- Sep 16, 2023 2:06am Sep 16, 2023 2:06am
- Joined Sep 2006 | Status: Trader | 10,704 Posts
{quote} A Bunch of Raccoons is called a GAZE ..{image}
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
- #9,303
- Sep 16, 2023 2:06am Sep 16, 2023 2:06am
- Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Trader | 5,319 Posts
Weekly view of Dax All on Auto Pilot {image}
Then we know at least, what we are supposed to be looking at.
It never gets easier, you just get better
- #9,304
- Sep 16, 2023 2:07am Sep 16, 2023 2:07am
- Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Trader | 5,319 Posts
It never gets easier, you just get better
- #9,305
- Sep 16, 2023 2:09am Sep 16, 2023 2:09am
- Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Trader | 5,319 Posts
It never gets easier, you just get better
- #9,307
- Sep 16, 2023 2:51am Sep 16, 2023 2:51am
- Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Trader | 5,319 Posts
It never gets easier, you just get better
- #9,309
- Edited 5:34am Sep 16, 2023 5:19am | Edited 5:34am
- Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Trader | 5,319 Posts
It never gets easier, you just get better
- #9,311
- Sep 16, 2023 9:21am Sep 16, 2023 9:21am
- Joined Aug 2007 | Status: Trader | 3,215 Posts
{quote} The $64,000 question. You could have a time / range box as Bluesteele & others do , or you could have a set size price only or time only box at a key level / point in the market (as I do). Really depends on what suits your strategy / works best. Change the size accodingly or keep it the same. Important is to have clearly defined rules for your Box. Ps: You already have boxes on your charts, between the vertical 6 hourly & MML horizontal lines AND yet more Diagonal Ones as well. You seem to have enough already and you want more ???
I'm going to do up a post with some charts in the hopes that it helps someone see the market in a way that helps them.
Is it the right way? I can only say it works for me and many others I have come to know..
Is it the best way? who knows and that really doesn't matter..as remember its about you.
Many ways to skin the squirrel
OK on my second cup of java with an extra scoop too lol....Let get this done..and OAPDave makes some excellent points too I should say,,,
WHat sizes of Box...Time, squaring etc...
Hopefully I can answer that with some charts and simple explanations and again in my best hopes it helps someone
Time to work
Blue
Markets are Mirrors,,Mastery of craft is mastery of self
- #9,312
- Edited 1:39pm Sep 16, 2023 12:39pm | Edited 1:39pm
- Joined Aug 2007 | Status: Trader | 3,215 Posts
A brief read....1000 word essay lol.....
Pandoras Box
Here we go,,, you know I love Trading..Charts talking about it all....and when I start writing ..its hard to stop.....
Boxes:
Why do I use a session box...???? I've had many questions and pms about them,,,so here I hope to shed a bit more light on how I see them and some things I have learned....
A 1 hour box for NY.... A few years back I came across some Al Brooks material via Tom Hougaard. And it was the statement that Tom made that after the close of the 18th 5-minute bar of the New York equity open.. there is a 90% probability that the high or the low of the day has been set... Blew my mind TBH... Then I watched many of Als seminars,, and read a lot of his material ,mostly focusing tho on the Opening Range.. My main focus.
Each progressive bar after the open increases the odds of the H/L of the day being set .. There are 78 5min bars in a session and by bar ...
Over 30 years of ES/SPX DOW data tells us that :
5 minute bars
Bar 1 : 20% probability of being the HI/LOW of the day.
Bar 7 : 50% probability of being the HI/LOW of the day.
Bar 13 : 70% probability of being the HI/LOW of the day.
Bar 18 : 90% probability of being the HI/LOW of the day.
Bar 78 : 99% probability of being the HI/LOW of the day.
We can consider this the Opening Range OR and wait for PA to reveal its intentions....
Or as I have learned from Stacey Burke we can use the First 3 hours of the
US session... 8-11am
Hour 1: Opening Range
Hour 2: Initial Balance
Hour 3: Market does 3 things......
Now this thesis carries over due to the markets being Fractal
We have The first 3 hours of a trading session
We have the 3 trading sessions of the day Asia, London, NY
We have the Weekly Mon OR Tues IB Weds 3 things. Then we have
Weds OR Thurs IB Fri 3 things...
We have Monthly templates as well and yearly all following the same principles.
There's four main points to a session’s Equity box. This is in NY 930-1030am
so it bridges the second hour into the 3rd...
#1: The High
#2: The Low
#3: The Open
#4: 50% Midline
Timings,,,,
Well the one thing with trading around a Box of Time is it keeps one focused on trading at set times and thus taking trades at set times.. A big part of trading is consistency,,showing up at the same time every day and looking for repeatable setups within your allotted time.
As for Time/Length of Boxes,,,I have come to the belief that the NY session is programmed off the 1 hour Equity open 930-1030..
I have researched many thousands of charts and measured the Opening Range and the Expansions of this O.R box etc
So I use 930-1030 am NYT..The equity open. Now there are also great trades that setup pre Equity 8am NYT open. Which I did on Friday Sept 15th.
Both charts are included here....US30 and OIL.... Major Red news at 830.
Price in a BOX on both Asia/UK Simple Breakout of those session boxes Lows
Simple as it gets.... Yes that's just selling the Breakout of a low.
But like Boxes can give you a very specific time to focus on trades,,,The session boxes gives you a very structured look at when the “Volume” is in the market and the markets PA with the volume from other world equity markets.
Whether we are looking at A time based Box or a Price based box i.e 00s 25s 50s 75s 00s Or it could be a box based on FIBs or Murray Math or Gann ..
The MAJOR point is PRICE IS ALWAYS IN A BOX. From seconds to hours to days months years,,,,
I apologize for the raw flow of my thoughts here and you may need to re read it a few times if your interested...
But the main takeaways of using Boxes are this:
1. A Visual representation of time and/or price and Structure. That can easily be visually back-tested,,, I'm old school.. I will go thru years of 5min charts, for example, at a time noting each days levels in my notebooks and on the charts. I don't use software at all. Notice the reaction to the quarter levels to Round numbers and to the Highs and Lows of these session Boxes.
2. The high probability of the 12-18 5m bar setting the H or L of the day.... based on decades of Data. Jaw dropping stats..One that can set the foundation for a great system/method. A very specific time based box..
3. Trading at a set time...Making your trading day structured and repeatable.
Other notes in relation to BOXES:
The market only does 3 things: 
Pandoras Box
Here we go,,, you know I love Trading..Charts talking about it all....and when I start writing ..its hard to stop.....
Boxes:
Why do I use a session box...???? I've had many questions and pms about them,,,so here I hope to shed a bit more light on how I see them and some things I have learned....
A 1 hour box for NY.... A few years back I came across some Al Brooks material via Tom Hougaard. And it was the statement that Tom made that after the close of the 18th 5-minute bar of the New York equity open.. there is a 90% probability that the high or the low of the day has been set... Blew my mind TBH... Then I watched many of Als seminars,, and read a lot of his material ,mostly focusing tho on the Opening Range.. My main focus.
Each progressive bar after the open increases the odds of the H/L of the day being set .. There are 78 5min bars in a session and by bar ...
Over 30 years of ES/SPX DOW data tells us that :
5 minute bars
Bar 1 : 20% probability of being the HI/LOW of the day.
Bar 7 : 50% probability of being the HI/LOW of the day.
Bar 13 : 70% probability of being the HI/LOW of the day.
Bar 18 : 90% probability of being the HI/LOW of the day.
Bar 78 : 99% probability of being the HI/LOW of the day.
We can consider this the Opening Range OR and wait for PA to reveal its intentions....
Or as I have learned from Stacey Burke we can use the First 3 hours of the
US session... 8-11am
Hour 1: Opening Range
Hour 2: Initial Balance
Hour 3: Market does 3 things......
Now this thesis carries over due to the markets being Fractal
We have The first 3 hours of a trading session
We have the 3 trading sessions of the day Asia, London, NY
We have the Weekly Mon OR Tues IB Weds 3 things. Then we have
Weds OR Thurs IB Fri 3 things...
We have Monthly templates as well and yearly all following the same principles.
There's four main points to a session’s Equity box. This is in NY 930-1030am
so it bridges the second hour into the 3rd...
#1: The High
#2: The Low
#3: The Open
#4: 50% Midline
Timings,,,,
Well the one thing with trading around a Box of Time is it keeps one focused on trading at set times and thus taking trades at set times.. A big part of trading is consistency,,showing up at the same time every day and looking for repeatable setups within your allotted time.
As for Time/Length of Boxes,,,I have come to the belief that the NY session is programmed off the 1 hour Equity open 930-1030..
I have researched many thousands of charts and measured the Opening Range and the Expansions of this O.R box etc
So I use 930-1030 am NYT..The equity open. Now there are also great trades that setup pre Equity 8am NYT open. Which I did on Friday Sept 15th.
Both charts are included here....US30 and OIL.... Major Red news at 830.
Price in a BOX on both Asia/UK Simple Breakout of those session boxes Lows
Simple as it gets.... Yes that's just selling the Breakout of a low.
But like Boxes can give you a very specific time to focus on trades,,,The session boxes gives you a very structured look at when the “Volume” is in the market and the markets PA with the volume from other world equity markets.
Whether we are looking at A time based Box or a Price based box i.e 00s 25s 50s 75s 00s Or it could be a box based on FIBs or Murray Math or Gann ..
The MAJOR point is PRICE IS ALWAYS IN A BOX. From seconds to hours to days months years,,,,
I apologize for the raw flow of my thoughts here and you may need to re read it a few times if your interested...
But the main takeaways of using Boxes are this:
1. A Visual representation of time and/or price and Structure. That can easily be visually back-tested,,, I'm old school.. I will go thru years of 5min charts, for example, at a time noting each days levels in my notebooks and on the charts. I don't use software at all. Notice the reaction to the quarter levels to Round numbers and to the Highs and Lows of these session Boxes.
2. The high probability of the 12-18 5m bar setting the H or L of the day.... based on decades of Data. Jaw dropping stats..One that can set the foundation for a great system/method. A very specific time based box..
3. Trading at a set time...Making your trading day structured and repeatable.
Other notes in relation to BOXES:
The market only does 3 things:
- Breakout and Trend
- Breakout and Reverse (failed breakout/false break reversal)
- Trading Range
A time/price based box helps us see this...
And points to keep in mind re the 3 things that markets do
1. Most breakouts fail 80%
2. The market will Trend 20% of the time from the Open.
My research and back-testing tells me that all markets adhere to these components,,, whether its Currencies, Indices, Metals, Crypto,, Futures markets etc
They all use the same Market Mechanics... The efficiency though does differ and some markets perform better around the mechanics of the O.R etc.
Now I have probably done a better job at confusing those reading this than
clarifying but hopefully with some charts it will make sense,,,
For those interested in any of this Al Brooks has some great videos on YouTube trading the Opening Range... As does Stacey Burke whom most all of this applies to and whom I have learned alot from... Just a top notch great guy IMO...and Cam Benson a young fellow who trades Stacey Burke’s methods and explains things with more detail etc...
Markets are Mirrors,,Mastery of craft is mastery of self
- #9,314
- Sep 16, 2023 5:54pm Sep 16, 2023 5:54pm
- Joined Mar 2023 | Status: Trader | 1,007 Posts
without patience how can you be a trader?
- #9,315
- Sep 16, 2023 9:14pm Sep 16, 2023 9:14pm
- Joined Jan 2016 | Status: Trader | 1,013 Posts
...there is a 90% probability that the high or the low of the day has been set... ...Most breakouts fail 80% 2...
TOP SECRET TRADING STRATEGY REVEALED 
88 % PROBABILITY - YouTubeAbout 80% breakouts fail. Do they ? Maybe we have wrong perception how market actually moves ?
Market never fails
last price is reality.
I might be wrong , I have been wrong before
- #9,316
- Sep 17, 2023 5:24am Sep 17, 2023 5:24am
- Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Trader | 5,319 Posts
{quote} Is it the right way? I can only say it works for me and many others I have come to know.. Is it the best way? who knows and that really doesn't matter..as remember its about you. Many ways to skin the squirrel.
Many ways to skin the squirrel.
It never gets easier, you just get better
- #9,317
- Sep 17, 2023 5:57am Sep 17, 2023 5:57am
- Joined Sep 2006 | Status: Trader | 10,704 Posts
{quote} Its quite old and know stats and other traders use it too and it this video there is extra tip.
Well -here is a contradiction in terms. It cannot be "Top Secret" if he is telling everyone about it and it also seems the video is a front for links to paid for courses.
If the course worked for all paid subscribers the market would crash. Reality is different: learn from free stuff on the internet; adapt it to suit YOU. Then practice many trades for some time; journal success, losses and failures to stick to a plan ( maybe join a thread to dicuss trading approaches and note other peoples differing approaches.) Keep on the lookout for opportunities to improve and adapt you approach. Remember the "Turtles"? Many were taught the method but results differed from individual to individual including many failures. In short the method is not the main bar to success - it is "YOU."
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
- #9,318
- Sep 17, 2023 6:08am Sep 17, 2023 6:08am
- Joined Sep 2006 | Status: Trader | 10,704 Posts
A brief read....1000 word essay lol..... Pandoras Box Here we go,,, you know I love Trading..Charts talking about it all....and when I start writing ..its hard to stop..... Boxes: Why do I use a session box...???? I've had many questions and pms about them,,,so here I hope to shed a bit more light on how I see them and some things I have learned.... A 1 hour box for NY.... A few years back I came across some Al Brooks material via Tom Hougaard. And it was the statement that Tom made that after the close of the 18th 5-minute bar of the New York equity...
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
- #9,319
- Sep 17, 2023 6:44am Sep 17, 2023 6:44am
- Joined Aug 2007 | Status: Trader | 3,215 Posts
{quote} I wasn't going to write here anymore but "Top Secret" - what bollocks ! Well -here is a contradiction in terms. It cannot be "Top Secret" if he is telling everyone about it and it also seems the video is a front for links to paid for courses. If the course worked for all paid subscribers the market would crash. Reality is different: learn from free stuff on the internet; adapt it to suit YOU. Then practice many trades for some time; journal success, losses and failures to stick to a plan ( maybe join a thread to dicuss trading approaches...
CheersT... I knew of this guy from his very first video.. I even banged heads with him in a discord channel and behind scenes.. He's a slick marketeer... whom calls himself a retired award winning hedge fund mgr... yet he remains anonymous..won't publish his name.
In one of his very first videos in YouTube he was professing how he would never ever charge a penny for his knowledge
as he has made so much money from trading. Saying this while supposedly on a yacht was the background... a few months later more videos gaining alot of viewers etc...he says he is going to open up an academy of sorts lol... yep seen this movie before.. And lo and behold he deletes some of his earlier videos that mentioned no charge no money ever needed as he was so rich lol...
Now he has thousands of students paying anywhere from a few hundred to $1000 mth !!! For his PHD course mentorship..
He has developed a cult like following much like ICT but in a smaller scale...
I had approached him as I saw the first video I thought Holy Shit !! Someone who trades similar to me...with the my NY open box...and using its highs lows etc etc... I couldn't believe it.
It is his indicator I use on Tradingview (free) .. I have wondered if he actually picked his method up from my earlier posts when I talked about the probabilities of the Open Al Brooks first 18 5m bars... or if he took the idea from Al Brooks.. Al doesn't use a box tho... the box was my spin using Al's data... who really knows and it doesn't matter..
Point is the guy is a very very arrogant ass and nothing but a slick marketeer hiding behind his username proclaiming he is the Algo and all sorts of bullshit lol...
Did I mention he's very arrogant?
off the charts arrogant Fkr...surprised his pumpkin sized ego filled head fits thru a doorway. Anyways enough smack talk... higher road is best
OK Enough Sunday morning rambles... the birds and squirrels shall soon be peeking in my office doors saying hey Its getting light out Feed me...
Cheers Fellas
Markets are Mirrors,,Mastery of craft is mastery of self
- #9,320
- Sep 17, 2023 7:10am Sep 17, 2023 7:10am
- Joined Nov 2012 | Status: Naked Chart Samurai | 3,480 Posts
{quote} ........
WHat sizes of Box...Time, squaring etc... Hopefully I can answer that with some charts and simple explanations and again in my best hopes it helps someone .............
Excellent post.
Success = Practice + Patience + Persistence