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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #774,721
  • Sep 14, 2023 11:33am Sep 14, 2023 11:33am
shorting gold one last time targetting 1909...
Extreme gut feeling trader
  • #774,722
  • Sep 14, 2023 11:35am Sep 14, 2023 11:35am
Quoting KareemAliFx
Very nice dump today. , love waking up to pips
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  • #774,723
  • Sep 14, 2023 11:36am Sep 14, 2023 11:36am
Quoting eyefeelsix
{quote} yesterday's storm caused me to jump from the ship before the time lol {image}
Me too. We shall catch the pullbacks, no worries!
Face 'ur fears & tame 'ur greed
  • #774,724
  • Sep 14, 2023 11:37am Sep 14, 2023 11:37am
Quoting T721
{quote} {image}
he have shitpants, not pips
People don't plan to lose. They lose because they don't plan.
  • #774,725
  • Sep 14, 2023 11:39am Sep 14, 2023 11:39am
Quoting Fardeen1209
{quote} I once explained it how central bank hike to tame inflation, when GDP/Economic Activity (just fancy words- but in reality is same thing) is weak- it is in fact bad for the currency because it acts as an indication something may crack or break in the future or more precisely down the road, the central bank needs to cut rate quicker than expected. This put selling pressure on the external value of the country's currency (Euro for Eurozone, Pound sterling for Uk, Dollar for US, Aus Dollar for Australia). As opposed for a strong GDP, it indicates...
Fardeen, your explanation above makes sense. Now with an unexpected rate increase, if the market reacted to the rate increase in a rational manner the price of the EU should have risen. It fell hard. Higher rates typically curb inflation and attract savings instead of lending to support economic expansion as you pointed out. Higher rates tend to strengthen the currency. This is the whole reason that the FED is so bent out of shape about 2% inflation when they double the deficit!
  • #774,726
  • Sep 14, 2023 11:39am Sep 14, 2023 11:39am
Quoting ScalaFX
{quote} he have shitpants, not pips
  • #774,727
  • Sep 14, 2023 11:45am Sep 14, 2023 11:45am
Quoting JereMi256
{quote} Me too. We shall catch the pullbacks, no worries!
actually today I re-entered short in the right shoulder zone, but it was hidden #late post causes
https://breakpullback.com
  • #774,728
  • Sep 14, 2023 11:45am Sep 14, 2023 11:45am
Quoting dantpm
{quote} Fardeen, your explanation above makes sense. Now with an unexpected rate increase, if the market reacted to the rate increase in a rational manner the price of the EU should have risen. It fell hard. Higher rates typically curb inflation and attract savings instead of lending to support economic expansion as you pointed out. Higher rates tend to strengthen the currency. This is the whole reason that the FED is so bent out of shape about 2% inflation when they double the deficit!
it is buy the rumour sell the news . They were already pricing in the hike now it is delivered the price drops it was expected
Master your mind. Master Trading.
  • #774,729
  • Sep 14, 2023 11:47am Sep 14, 2023 11:47am
Quoting TheWraith
{quote} Hey Robinhood! This Weekly candle will close below the Support (gray line). Now, next week, after I see retracement on Yen pairs, I'll go Short EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY and CHF/JPY. These will be my last trades that I'm sharing here on FF I think, so just so you know that I might be done writing. See you next week! I'll post the trades next week when I enter Short.
I am just about to complete a specific sequence within a chart. Usdjpy and eurjpy are going to unreveal it for me. I will wait and see. I am long on gold . Me too will stop posting after a few accurate predictions. Cheers
POSTMASTER
  • #774,730
  • Sep 14, 2023 11:50am Sep 14, 2023 11:50am
Quoting eyefeelsix
{quote} actually today I re-entered short in the right shoulder zone, but it was hidden #late post causes
Well done.
It's some tough work posting updates sometimes. Maybe next time
Face 'ur fears & tame 'ur greed
  • #774,731
  • Sep 14, 2023 11:52am Sep 14, 2023 11:52am
Quoting KareemAliFx
{quote} it is buy the rumour sell the news . They were already pricing in the hike now it is delivered the price drops it was expected
For your explanation to apply they should have been expecting an even higher rate increase and received a lower rate increase. The data doesn't support this.
  • #774,732
  • Sep 14, 2023 11:55am Sep 14, 2023 11:55am
Quoting dantpm
{quote} For your explanation to apply they should have been expecting an even higher rate increase and received a lower rate increase. The data doesn't support this.
Dont pay him any attention pal
  • #774,733
  • Sep 14, 2023 12:04pm Sep 14, 2023 12:04pm
Quoting dantpm
{quote} For your explanation to apply they should have been expecting an even higher rate increase and received a lower rate increase. The data doesn't support this.
yes I agree the data does not support it. They did not mention that rates have peaked but have made it clear that in the coming months inflation should subdue . They hinted towards slowing down the tightening despite a risk of European recession. This is overall a bearish sentiment for eur even with elevated rates
Master your mind. Master Trading.
  • #774,734
  • Sep 14, 2023 12:08pm Sep 14, 2023 12:08pm
Quoting KareemAliFx
{quote} yes I agree the data does not support it. They did not mention that rates have peaked but have made it clear that in the coming months inflation should subdue . They hinted towards slowing down the tightening despite a risk of European recession. This is overall a bearish sentiment for eur even with elevated rates
If the economy is already slowing, raising rates accelerates the slowing hurting the economy unnecessarily. The EU team is every bit as bright as the FED!
  • #774,735
  • Sep 14, 2023 12:08pm Sep 14, 2023 12:08pm
Quoting dantpm
{quote} Fardeen, your explanation above makes sense. Now with an unexpected rate increase, if the market reacted to the rate increase in a rational manner the price of the EU should have risen. It fell hard. Higher rates typically curb inflation and attract savings instead of lending to support economic expansion as you pointed out. Higher rates tend to strengthen the currency. This is the whole reason that the FED is so bent out of shape about 2% inflation when they double the deficit!
Yes, it is called a hawkish Surprise , Interest rate Traders priced in around 30% chance for 25bps ECB hike today.
From a rational perspective, the currency (Eur) should have been appreciated. But given that the market already know the bad economic situation in Eurozone, it indicates that any further hike could worsen the current bad situation.

This explained why the Euro depreciated today.

This same exact scenario, we already experienced it on GU, back when BOE was hike by 50bps instead of the market priced in 25bps, GU falls heavily.
Why?
The Uk GDP/ economic activity was not soo good. So any the further unanticipated hike (the surprise 25bps hike from BOE) cause a large shift in yield curve [may be short term yield (2Y) or mid term (10Y) or Longer term(30Y)] since probably in the next couple months or next year, make interest rate trader anticipate the current bad economic situation could become worst and getting out of control; therefore, the interest rate trader priced in that particular worsening bad economic situation to be happen in the future, today itself.

These interest rate trader always bet on what might happen in the next 6 month/1 year/2years time, today. They cause large shift in yield curve hence affect the currency value directly. (they compare the future value with present value- see if present value is undervalued or Overvalued)

The interest rate traders are just like us.
At the time they are buying/selling the bonds, they dont know what is going to happen next.
They used the fundamentals, try to project which case scenario (consistent of the bigger picture- CPI, Interest rate, Employment, GDP, Housing crisis, Financial Crisis, Liquidity Crisis, Political Crisis, or booming of everything) is most likely to happen, then when they get their confirmation, they ride the trend.

Their orders influence the bond price which inversely affects the yield curve.

My 2 cents
More time in the market, does not mean you trade better!
  • #774,736
  • Sep 14, 2023 12:10pm Sep 14, 2023 12:10pm
Quoting T721
{quote} Dont pay him any attention pal
hahaha nice eurusd longs
Master your mind. Master Trading.
  • #774,737
  • Sep 14, 2023 12:11pm Sep 14, 2023 12:11pm
Quoting montygoldy
shorting gold one last time targetting 1909...
ALRIGHT CLOSING OF THE DAY with 3k….. equity back to 10k…. This week so far 7k to 17k then 3.5k from there 6k to back to 4k n now 10k. Atleast 33% up from last week and overall close to 400%
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Extreme gut feeling trader
  • #774,738
  • Sep 14, 2023 12:11pm Sep 14, 2023 12:11pm
Quoting eyefeelsix
{quote} actually today I re-entered short in the right shoulder zone, but it was hidden #late post causes
Can we use H&S as a continuation Pattern?
More time in the market, does not mean you trade better!
  • #774,739
  • Sep 14, 2023 12:14pm Sep 14, 2023 12:14pm
Funny old day, folks buying US$ and US stocks and shares ...
  • #774,740
  • Sep 14, 2023 12:14pm Sep 14, 2023 12:14pm
Quoting Fardeen1209
{quote} Can we use H&S as a continuation Pattern?
in that case H&S is on underground not in the air
https://breakpullback.com
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