Great statistical info, really appreciate the effort put into it.
Are you going to elaborate as to what trading strategies may be derived from these stats based on combination of daily fibs and daily pivots to initiate trades for the following day?
The green fib numbers are daily fibs and show the fib levels from the previous days high and low and how they pertain to the next day this trading day. The green numbers are the resistance levels, red numbers are support levels and turquoise numbers are pivot points that floor traders use based on previous days high, low, and close. White fib numbers are from the previous week’s high and low. There is confluence at 38.2 weekly fib and the 50 fib daily.
Since jan 1 2006 the gbpusd had a daily range of motion 60 pips or less 17 times before Friday's 59 pips. 15 of 17 times (88%) it has retraced to the 61.8 fib level. It has only retraced to the 23.6 fib level. Currently it trades at the 1.9824 with the daily 61.8 being 9795. There is a 88% probability of it retracing to within 7 pips of 9795. All fib retracements are base of the currency coming within 7 pips of the fib level.
The gbpusd retraces to with in 7 pips of following daily fibs
23.6 fib 97.8% of the time if the high of 9927 hold this would be 9900
38.2 fib 87.5% of the time which would be 9883
50 fib 77.5% of the time which would be 9870
61.8 fib 65.3 % of the time which would be 9857
[06:58 GBP/USD: Patchy Selling Above 1.9920 Frustrating The Bull Run] London, June 5. QUOTE FROM FXCMA strong Monday session for the Pound with performance on the crosses a highlight. GBP/JPY and EUR/GBP held better levels and helped to underpin a Cablerun back above 1.9900. Profit taking late in the European session from 1.9925-30gave late New traders the chance to join the move at better levels. Fresh demandout of North American and Asia put a floor under the market at 1.9900 and Sterling began to climb again. Overnight action was bid but tight with a mixtureof speculative and commercial business carving out a 1.9905 to 1.9920 range. Into the London Tuesday and a further bull push to 1.9930, where patchy selling from European and Asian accounts has served to frustrate the bull run. U.K May service sector PMI is due at 08:30 GMT. Expectations are for a 57.00 return from April"s 57.2. PMI numbers from Europe and Eurozone retail sales provide the other data interest. GBP/USD looks set to consolidate the 1.9900 break but progress beyond 1.9930 will be slow. Offers are touted between 1.9925 and 1.9935 and again at 1.9950. On the buy side U.K investment accounts reportedly have interest in the 1.9870- 90 area. Tight action initially with a slight Sterling advantage. [email protected] [IFR Forex Watch] [SQUAWK BOX]
Statistical Probability Trading With Price Action
