Cable Update (GBPUSD)

Fardeen I wouldn’t label the bottom as EQL.. Eql are better after
lower OB

except that chart is great

Still Shorting GU , will cut positions if we reach 1.2800

It doesn't matter where it "wants" to go...we just follow where it is going like a shadow.

You consider it as a strong support triple bottom (Accumulation)?


The EQL occurs above an unmitigated OB

EDIT:
How I initially view it as an EQL

(The 4hr downward structure will be still intact); hence, $1875 still possible.

However, at 1884.72 30mins Flag Limit, a very strong accumulation happen March 2023- May be why we get an accumulation , then the "Spring" will go for $1875 Unmitigated OB (My midterm view, could be wrong)

Hello Guys,
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here is some conclusion,
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A glance at the calendar would make you think it will be a slow week, but maybe not—we get some fresh news from the UK that will inform the rate outlook (industrial trends, distributive trade) and some data from Germany (GDP, IFO, flash PMI) that could hold a surprise or two. We also get all the housing data in the US. Everyone seems to think Jackson Hole will be the star of the week but Fed chief Powell doesn’t speak until Friday, weakening any other comments on monetary policy. Instead we wonder if the flash PMIs from several eurozone countries and the eurozone composite will not be a bit of a shocker. The forecast is for additional weakening and that almost certainly influences the ECB. If we assume the central banks talk among themselves, it’s likely that if Powell whispers in Lagarde’s ear that the Fed will pause in September, we can count on the ECB doing it too, especially if the flash PMI’s are soft. Lagarde did not attend in 2021 and 2022. She also speaks on Friday this time. Of longer-term importance are the studies that will come out on the theme— structural shifts. That means demographics, productivity (a function of technology), employment, capital investment, and of course, inflation. The central banks have been getting a lot of these dead-wrong, including growth. Growth was supposed to falter in the US but instead it’s booming.
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Growth is the hidden motivation behind the surge in bond yields. We tend to think it’s just inflation, but growth counts too because it signals to the traders and investors that rates will stay high for longer. Not necessarily higher, just high. The Atlanta Fed coming out with 5.8% was a contributor to this perception, especially with the Fed forecasting less than 2% for the year. The Conference Board has 1.9%, falling to 0.5% in 2024. The persistence of high yields implies that the market does not believe the Establishment growth forecasts. The dumping in fixed income that has delivered the highest yields since 2011 in the 30-year and the highest in the 10-year since 2007 has got to come to an end sometime and probably sooner than we think. The WSJ has analysts who opine that buyers today will make windfall gains when yields fall back, as they should when inflation slithers back down to 3% and below. Remember that core PCE inflation was 4.1% in July from 4.58% the month before. Nobody will forecast out longer than the next one, at the same 4.1% (consensus) or 4% (Trading Economics). We get this info on August 31, a Wednesday and the US Labor Day holiday coming right afterwards (Sept 4). If the number comes in as expected, nothing much will happen—but if there is a drop below 4%, watch out. But remember that growth has to fall, too, for the bond market to change its mind. Are growth and inflation going to fall together in lockstep? Probably not. That sets up tension. At a guess, it will take seriously falling growth to do the trick and before anyone, let alone the Fed, will be satisfied with falling inflation. But we say it’s silly to watch job growth and unemployment rates to predict the slow growth/falling inflation story. Employment is a follower, not a leader. In addition to data and whatever develops at Jackson Hole, the single biggest risk-off worry is China. Xi comes across as in control and there is an excuse for everything, but in any other regime the messy and unclear messaging would be perceived as weakness. This is an underlying risk-off factor that might be long lasting. Evidence: Reuters notes the 10-year US-China yield gap widened to another 16- year high. In addition, “Beijing's latest stock market support measures announced on Friday appeared to have little impact and foreign investors on Monday sold almost a billion dollars worth of Chinese shares via the Stock Connect system - an 11th straight session of net selling.” Another property developer bit the dust (Sunac China) and “Official figures also showed China's government land sales revenue declined for the 19th consecutive month in July.”
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what i see in the Market right now is Confusion,
for me it will be better to wait for the Dollar to drop,
that could mean GBPUSD will go back to 1.28 if todays data is not good enough,
so then we will see where to start selling,
i am still not in favor of buying Pound on the other hand i clearly see a Good Reason to buy Pound as well,
if i was a betting man i will buy Pound instead of EUR today,
but as i said i mostly trade Cross pairs for now, not going with or against Dollar or pound just watching the charts,
i saw a lot of buyers on this forum from yesterday so i thought i share my Analysis,
Good Luck.
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"The best thing a human being can do is to help another human being know more. Charlie Munger"

Price going for 1.282.

test test test...that is all it is doing...lower prices are a coming.

Why? Proof?

Why? Proof?

Longs still active , nothing changed today as above except for price is moving higher towards the RBS @ 2845

Price action. Long signals.

But that is "now". How do you choose such a figure? What about fundermentals?

What about them? Fundamentals are for long game, technical analysis for short and long.

As long as you believe in what you are doing and your bank account reflects that, that is all that matters. Nothing else. Did you watch the video? Did it give you some useful information on how the pricing engine works? (AKA, break, retest ect?)

Also, keep an eye outside of the GBPUSD box. You will really see when "its time"

It did, thanks man! Now, I finally understand why price goes back to these areas of consolidation.

Here's a view on USD activity traded today via ONE pair. Just one pair. GBPUSD. And so far this month.





I think it's funny to read "commentary" and "chitchat" by people on these sites. SURELY any real person on them realizes most don't have a bloody clue what they're talking about.

Enjoy.

Peter

Fundamentally, you can be looking at weaker USD as a result of BRICS today and potential threat to its main reserve status.

add short 2793..waiting add 2800..2815