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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #768,521
  • Aug 19, 2023 9:12am Aug 19, 2023 9:12am
Love when folks take my posts too seriously ..one born every minute, hook line and sinker ...BIG FISH
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  • #768,522
  • Aug 19, 2023 9:38am Aug 19, 2023 9:38am
Quoting Fardeen1209
{quote} Thats because you dont want to admit that you are wrong on the trade. Happened to me, in my first year of trading, lose 54% of my account, now i dont trade without SL. My excel first for my position sizing and risk management then push buy/sell button
That's why I flip a coin, I can never be wrong as I believe that a coin cannot predict the future but there others on this thread would believe anything...
  • #768,523
  • Aug 19, 2023 9:54am Aug 19, 2023 9:54am
Quoting Ferna
{quote} It seems the market has become more liquid than last year. Lower spreads at night time etc.. is this the work of A.I? Any videos of any A.I trading bots and how they act?
You might like his views. He has a good predicting global model. Take a look at his blog.
POSTMASTER
  • #768,524
  • Aug 19, 2023 9:55am Aug 19, 2023 9:55am
Quoting dempire1
{quote} Maybe average out the DD. Divide DD into layers to add up positions? If DD was lets say 60% add up position every 10% And risk 10% of total account into layers?
You are right. It will help with keeping the DD lower. But i have another question now: if the price moves in my direction without much DD, does it mean my profit will be minimal? Since i wasn't able to add up enough positions? Btw thanks a lot buddy
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  • #768,525
  • Aug 19, 2023 10:00am Aug 19, 2023 10:00am
Saw folks talking about 100% win rate- impossible to achieve, unless it is Peter or fresh water
The real question is do we need a strategy that gives us more than 70% win rate?
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More time in the market, does not mean you trade better!
  • #768,526
  • Aug 19, 2023 10:16am Aug 19, 2023 10:16am
Quoting Fardeen1209
Saw folks talking about 100% win rate- impossible to achieve, unless it is Peter or fresh water The real question is do we need a strategy that gives us more than 70% win rate? {image}
70% is absolute great
  • #768,527
  • Aug 19, 2023 10:22am Aug 19, 2023 10:22am
Quoting Nordling
{quote} You are right. It will help with keeping the DD lower. But i have another question now: if the price moves in my direction without much DD, does it mean my profit will be minimal? Since i wasn't able to add up enough positions? Btw thanks a lot buddy

domt bee fooled by peoples high win rate...id rather increase my RR than win rate cause a byproduct of a 80 or 90% winrate is sitting in huge DD praying for price to turn aroundand closing at even or just above ....and if they use martingale makes it worse cause theyll blow up their account even with a 90% winrate....that metric is just a useless bragging right for small accounts cause someone trading standard lots will shit their pants sitting in a huge DD trying to maintain that win percentage but then hes not really trading for money just to impress people on websites

i never pay attention to people that brag such high percentages
i know cause at one time early on i had a 89% win rate and spent lots of times sitting in DD trying to salvage the trade to get out at even
short trump and go long the deepstate
  • #768,528
  • Aug 19, 2023 10:47am Aug 19, 2023 10:47am
Quoting Zebi
{quote} domt bee fooled by peoples high win rate...id rather increase my RR than win rate cause a byproduct of a 80 or 90% winrate is sitting in huge DD praying for price to turn aroundand closing at even or just above ....and if they use martingale makes it worse cause theyll blow up their account even with a 90% winrate....that metric is just a useless bragging right for small accounts cause someone trading standard lots will shit their pants sitting in a huge DD trying to maintain that win percentage but then hes not really trading for money...
...also win rate is in the past, doesn't mean that win rate will carry on in the future, markets are changing all the time, I tried explaining this to DrDave but he just doesn't get it ..."The past does not equal the future"...
  • #768,529
  • Aug 19, 2023 10:57am Aug 19, 2023 10:57am
Quoting Nordling
{quote} You are right. It will help with keeping the DD lower. But i have another question now: if the price moves in my direction without much DD, does it mean my profit will be minimal? Since i wasn't able to add up enough positions? Btw thanks a lot buddy
Not sure how prop firms work with their evaluation process but I do know that there are prop firms that cater for long term trading so that should be an area to delve into. If there are profit targets to be met within a certain time period during the challenges I would treat each trade as a scalp with averaging and lock my best trade at breakeven and some at my ideal long term entry. Best case scenario the trade survives and turns into a long term trade making my profit targets with scalps and trades locked in. Does it work like that? Maybe the experienced prop traders can shed light. I have been thinking about this as a long term trader myself.
Cheers.
Trade to trade another day
  • #768,530
  • Edited 11:17am Aug 19, 2023 10:58am | Edited 11:17am
Quoting Nordling
Guys, i have a serious question. All answers are welcome. So i am trading for almost 5 years now. I have system and i think i have an edge. I am a position trader who trades based fundamentals, so i do around 1 or 2 trades per month. I should let my trade breathe, since my trades take a long time and price ranges are big. Yet i still have to put a stop loss, coz i am thinking about trading with a prop firm. My drawdown should remain low. Based on years of testing, my win rate is around 70% (no i am not bragging) but my risk reward ratio is 1 to...
ATR or use 1:2 loss to win ratio.

2% of equity per trade:

0/10 = -20%
1/10 = -14%
2/10 = -8%
3/10 = -2%
4/10 = +4%
5/10 = +10%
6/10 = +16%
7/10 = +22%
8/10 = +28%...

4% of equity per trade:

0/10 = -40%
1/10 = -28%
2/10 = -16%
3/10 = -4%
4/10 = +8%
5/10 = +20%
6/10 = +32%
7/10 = +44%
8/10 = +56%

I think10% a year is great, 20% should be more than enough for them to keep you funded? Especially if you have a large account with 500.000 or more. Then 10% or 20% is nothing to sneeze at.
  • #768,531
  • Aug 19, 2023 11:07am Aug 19, 2023 11:07am
Quoting TheWraith
{quote} ATR
What should be the settings and should i use 1 ATR or 2x?
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  • #768,532
  • Aug 19, 2023 11:09am Aug 19, 2023 11:09am
Quoting Wavegarrick
{quote} Not sure how prop firms work with their evaluation process but I do know that there are prop firms that cater for long term trading so that should be an area to delve into. If there are profit targets to be met within a certain time period during the challenges I would treat each trade as a scalp with averaging and lock my best trade at breakeven and some at my ideal long term entry. Best case scenario the trade survives and turns into a long term trade making my profit targets with scalps and trades locked in. Does it work like that? Maybe...
I have no experience in prop trading, i am thinking about giving it a chance. I think you can place positive SL though, with no time limit firms, you can do this
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  • #768,533
  • Aug 19, 2023 11:22am Aug 19, 2023 11:22am
Quoting Nordling
{quote} What should be the settings and should i use 1 ATR or 2x?
I also wrote what would happen if you went with 1:2. Maybe better?

I open two positions, one with TP of 1xATR and both positions SL's are 1.5xATR from opening price. When that one hits TP, for other trade SL goes to BE and you let it ride. If second trade reaches distance (profit) of 2xATR, then you put TS 1.5xATR from wherever that 2xATR is and that's it. You let that second trade run as far as it can until it eventually hits TS.

With the system that can give you 7/10 (pretty much where the system I use is), then it'll be profitable. It's just that I don't think it will be profitable enough if you're trading on Weekly and have fewer trades in a year. I am on Daily TF, so I will get more signals (trades) in. You can also use ATR and instead of 2% risk 4% to reach the yearly target, I don't know... try playing out with numbers.
  • #768,534
  • Aug 19, 2023 11:32am Aug 19, 2023 11:32am
Also that 2% per trade don't have to be 2% loss if you have a good exit indicator to get you out of the bad trade sooner!

If some candle for example closes below both of my MA's (if I went Long) I close the trade in loss, but I took perhaps 1% loss instead of 2%.
  • #768,535
  • Aug 19, 2023 11:37am Aug 19, 2023 11:37am
Quoting Ferna
{quote} I'd like to learn more from him. But i'm flooded with 2nd hand sources marketing on his name! Any closer to the source recommendations?
I just read his blog every now and then. Have his link stored, just a press of a Button. Don't agree 100% with him politically but must admit his long term forecasts are normally good. His computer is telling the Us economy peaking on the 7th may next year.
POSTMASTER
  • #768,536
  • Aug 19, 2023 11:44am Aug 19, 2023 11:44am
Quoting TheWraith
Also that 2% per trade don't have to be 2% loss if you have a good exit indicator to get you out of the bad trade sooner! If some candle for example closes below both of my MA's (if I went Long) I close the trade in loss, but I took perhaps 1% loss instead of 2%.
Thanks for the nice and detailed explanation buddy. Maybe i can try to integrate an exit indicator. Also running a trade using trailing sl sounds like a good way to maximise profits. Thanks a lot
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  • #768,537
  • Aug 19, 2023 11:50am Aug 19, 2023 11:50am
I am one of the members stating that 100% winrate is the only way to beat the central Algo and thus live off trading. To start fighting the Algo you must achieve a specific high level where he will hammer you out again and again. Otherwise, you are a loser trading, or profitable but not enough to live off trading.
Within this 100% It is acceptable closing positions with tiny loses due to strategic purposes obviously.
POSTMASTER
  • #768,538
  • Aug 19, 2023 12:00pm Aug 19, 2023 12:00pm
Quoting Nordling
{quote} You are right. It will help with keeping the DD lower. But i have another question now: if the price moves in my direction without much DD, does it mean my profit will be minimal? Since i wasn't able to add up enough positions? Btw thanks a lot buddy
Well yes. Until you find a way when to add if it moves to your direction. Usually when position trade, I believe DD is inevitable.
How to succeed in zero sum game?
  • #768,539
  • Aug 19, 2023 12:01pm Aug 19, 2023 12:01pm
Quoting Robinhood1
I am one of the members stating that 100% winrate is the only way to beat the central Algo and thus live off trading. To start fighting the Algo you must achieve a specific high level where he will hammer you out again and again. Otherwise, you are a loser trading, or profitable but not enough to live off trading. Within this 100% It is acceptable closing positions with tiny loses due to strategic purposes obviously.
If your price is not being locked again and again and traded against from minute cero, your account wiped and price turns un your direction or once you close your position price moves rapidly in your direction even in winning position that took ages as the Algo also frees the pair, you have not achieved suffiecent level. Then we can start talking
POSTMASTER
  • #768,540
  • Aug 19, 2023 12:03pm Aug 19, 2023 12:03pm
Quoting Robinhood1
{quote} If your price is not being locked again and again and traded against from minute cero, your account wiped and price turns un your direction or once you close your position price moves rapidly in your direction even in winning position that took ages as the Algo also frees the pair, you have not achieved suffiecent level. Then we can start talking
This has changed recently for me due to the 100% winrate which comes with very low DD.
I am posting my trades here aand will keep diong so for a while to prove my theory.
POSTMASTER
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