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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #13,941
  • May 30, 2007 3:38am May 30, 2007 3:38am
I came in late I just got a short on cable 1.9784 SL @ 1.9800, starting to see cable going down the hill and speeding up ADP report will help this to happen much faster, I Agree probably at the end of the week we should see 9500
FOREX MY LIFE, MY CURSE....
  • #13,942
  • May 30, 2007 3:45am May 30, 2007 3:45am
Quoting M@verick
I came in late I just got a short on cable 1.9784 SL @ 1.9800, starting to see cable going down the hill and speeding up ADP report will help this to happen much faster, I Agree probably at the end of the week we should see 9500
I'm not convinced. Channel support line and old 38.2 fib line have rejected bear moves so far today. Still a bull flag and three serious attempts to breakout already. I agree that ADP payroll could do the trick, not sure about FOMC as rate hike not a prospect at present. We shall see...
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  • #13,943
  • May 30, 2007 3:51am May 30, 2007 3:51am
Quoting goonergonebad
I'm not convinced. Channel support line and old 38.2 fib line have rejected bear moves so far today. Still a bull flag and three serious attempts to breakout already. I agree that ADP payroll could do the trick, not sure about FOMC as rate hike not a prospect at present. We shall see...

Well your right 3 times and nothing, has a har time to breakthru any how oil prices are down a bit as well gold, checkout in bloomberg, has lots of resistance but, but am very sure its gonna break, lets see
FOREX MY LIFE, MY CURSE....
  • #13,944
  • May 30, 2007 4:53am May 30, 2007 4:53am
Seen the short term H4 trend line being broken.
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  • #13,945
  • May 30, 2007 4:58am May 30, 2007 4:58am
another chart looks like as follows:
Attached Image
  • #13,946
  • May 30, 2007 5:25am May 30, 2007 5:25am
Carry trades will be crucial this week. Might bring down gbp/usd very fast (300pips)
  • #13,947
  • May 30, 2007 5:30am May 30, 2007 5:30am
nice to see you back... and thanks for the tip.

Quoting henrycarol
Carry trades will be crucial this week. Might bring down gbp/usd very fast (300pips)
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #13,948
  • May 30, 2007 5:41am May 30, 2007 5:41am
Quoting henrycarol
Carry trades will be crucial this week. Might bring down gbp/usd very fast (300pips)
Does this mean the carry trade is unwinding? Does it only affect GBP or Euro as well?
  • #13,949
  • May 30, 2007 5:43am May 30, 2007 5:43am
Quoting M@verick
I came in late I just got a short on cable 1.9784 SL @ 1.9800, starting to see cable going down the hill and speeding up ADP report will help this to happen much faster, I Agree probably at the end of the week we should see 9500
I just move my limit to 1.9700 cable moving faster than expected
FOREX MY LIFE, MY CURSE....
  • #13,950
  • May 30, 2007 5:51am May 30, 2007 5:51am
Quoting M@verick
I just move my limit to 1.9700 cable moving faster than expected
Hats off to you guys who called the short trade. I made some pips ar London but was waiting for ADP before another possible short. Market wasn't waiting...
  • #13,951
  • May 30, 2007 6:09am May 30, 2007 6:09am
Quoting goonergonebad
Does this mean the carry trade is unwinding? Does it only affect GBP or Euro as well?
I understand now - FOMC holds the key:

"Any hint of a rate cut will boost equity markets and carry trades with them. Bond yeilds will fall and prices will rise, especially on the shorter end of the curve. In a winding situation, JPY crosses appreciate as the dollar depreciates vs GBP,EUR etc.

Certainly, if the market percieves an increase is more likely equity markets will react negatively; carry trades will be sold, bond yeilds will rise and prices will fall. When carry trades are unwinding, the JPY crosses will depreciate as the dollar appreciates vs GBP,EUR etc."
  • #13,952
  • May 30, 2007 6:12am May 30, 2007 6:12am
stoploss on long @ 9792 got triggered @ 9770. looking for a break below 9700 and a trip to 9500's where another long position is waiting.

still bullish on this pair. i wouldn't use the word bearish on this pair yet.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #13,953
  • May 30, 2007 6:16am May 30, 2007 6:16am
Quoting goonergonebad
I understand now - FOMC holds the key:

"Any hint of a rate cut will boost equity markets and carry trades with them. Bond yeilds will fall and prices will rise, especially on the shorter end of the curve. In a winding situation, JPY crosses appreciate as the dollar depreciates vs GBP,EUR etc.

Certainly, if the market percieves an increase is more likely equity markets will react negatively; carry trades will be sold, bond yeilds will rise and prices will fall. When carry trades are unwinding, the JPY crosses will depreciate as the dollar appreciates vs GBP,EUR etc."
Interestingly S&P and Dow Jones futures are -8 and -70! When we see selling in these markets it does effect carry trades by making them go South. In a general view when these markets perform well the dollar seems to do the opposite.
  • #13,954
  • May 30, 2007 6:24am May 30, 2007 6:24am
Quoting el_duende
Interestingly S&P and Dow Jones futures are -8 and -70! When we see selling in these markets it does effect carry trades by making them go South. In a general view when these markets perform well the dollar seems to do the opposite.
China's tumble today (-6% all indexes) didn't spread so far. Europe is trading -0.8% only. So, we might see Dow Jones gapping down but recovering for small losses...

I'll be checking on it today. But right now, I see NO TRADES whatsoever across the board. End of the months + NFP + stock market uncertainty.... Stink.
  • #13,955
  • May 30, 2007 6:27am May 30, 2007 6:27am
With regards to the trend have a look at the chart, could this be start of a bull trend or my downtrend friend continue?
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  • #13,956
  • May 30, 2007 6:36am May 30, 2007 6:36am
Take a look to a simple chart with Sma 50, exponentialMA 10 ans 21 gives you a better look to a downtrend for the day, slow stocastics in the other chat show downtrend in chart to the right 15min upp chart to the left 5min
FOREX MY LIFE, MY CURSE....
  • #13,957
  • May 30, 2007 6:41am May 30, 2007 6:41am
Quoting M@verick
Take a look to a simple chart with Sma 50, exponentialMA 10 ans 21 gives you a better look to a downtrend for the day, slow stocastics in the other chat show downtrend in chart to the right 15min upp chart to the left 5min
Forgot to attach the chart lol =))
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FOREX MY LIFE, MY CURSE....
  • #13,958
  • May 30, 2007 6:49am May 30, 2007 6:49am
Employment increase above the 200,000 level = 1.9500
  • #13,959
  • May 30, 2007 6:55am May 30, 2007 6:55am
at last an old fashioned typical cable day

pity I wasn't able to trade today
  • #13,960
  • May 30, 2007 6:56am May 30, 2007 6:56am
Quoting PandoraBox
Employment increase above the 200,000 level = 1.9500
However decrease to 75,000 will be bullish for cable, news out in 20 mins or so im wating til then to make a decision on direction
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