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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #767,361
  • Aug 15, 2023 10:32am Aug 15, 2023 10:32am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} Don't get ahead of yourself: Has even M15 SHOWN you there is a chance for the bears?
yup i already took short
  • #767,362
  • Aug 15, 2023 10:39am Aug 15, 2023 10:39am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} I am saying that it is likely to be the beginning of a new D1 swing up. This H4 capture also shows that H8 is going up with it. The ensuing H4 swing down will tell more after we see if it ends as a pullback or as an extended return down. In the mean time, for the H4/H8 to stop going up, every TF below H4 must go down. Has M15 started down yet?? (My main focus is on LAGGING indicators on multiple TFs.) {image}

In my experience using the 15m for entry can be a mistake, have seen it too many times when the 15 minute starts a new trend down during an upside correction only to end up as another pb during the correction therefore H1 trend down which is 15 major trend is more reliable.
Follow The Markets Structure - Patience and Discipline
  • #767,363
  • Aug 15, 2023 10:40am Aug 15, 2023 10:40am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} Don't get ahead of yourself: Has even M15 SHOWN you there is a chance for the bears?
M1 and M5 capitulated. M15 is next. Will it or not, God knows.. with shitty price action like this it's probably not going anywhere.

If Daily closes below 1.2725, Sellers are still in the game.
  • #767,364
  • Aug 15, 2023 10:45am Aug 15, 2023 10:45am
Quoting Moty
ty mister gu fu mister aussie {image}
Is this still valid?
  • #767,365
  • Aug 15, 2023 10:46am Aug 15, 2023 10:46am
I do not see hourly thrust candle to short.

If shorting... only for few.

Longs still advisable.

May be Asia will trigger short.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Intraday only.
  • #767,366
  • Aug 15, 2023 10:47am Aug 15, 2023 10:47am
Quoting navk
I do not see hourly thrust candle to short. If shorting... only for few. Longs still advisable. May be Asia will trigger short. {image}
Do you see GU breaking the 1.26 level this week
  • #767,367
  • Aug 15, 2023 10:47am Aug 15, 2023 10:47am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} I am saying that it is likely to be the beginning of a new D1 swing up. This H4 capture also shows that H8 is going up with it. The ensuing H4 swing down will tell more after we see if it ends as a pullback or as an extended return down. In the mean time, for the H4/H8 to stop going up, every TF below H4 must go down. Has M15 started down yet?? (My main focus is on LAGGING indicators on multiple TFs.) {image}

Here is a classic example , to the left is the 15 trend resuming down only to end up as another pb in the upside correction

To the right is H1 trend continuation down which is the correct one, can show you many more examples if you wish as to why the lower timeframes are irrelevant depending on the point of origin of the main swing.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDCHFM15.png Size: 54 KB
Follow The Markets Structure - Patience and Discipline
  • #767,368
  • Aug 15, 2023 10:47am Aug 15, 2023 10:47am
Quoting silverjazz
{quote} yup i already took short
a little stress, short with h4 up
  • #767,369
  • Aug 15, 2023 10:48am Aug 15, 2023 10:48am
Quoting shakmoney
{quote} Do you see GU breaking the 1.26 level this week
Until now, I do not see
Intraday only.
  • #767,370
  • Aug 15, 2023 10:51am Aug 15, 2023 10:51am
Quoting navk
{quote} Until now, I do not see
it came close 1.2616 area yesterday
  • #767,371
  • Aug 15, 2023 11:19am Aug 15, 2023 11:19am
Quoting pipfarm
{quote} In my experience using the 15m for entry can be a mistake, have seen it too many times when the 15 minute starts a new trend down during an upside correction only to end up as another pb during the correction therefore H1 trend down which is 15 major trend is more reliable.
Did I say anything about making an ENTRY on M15? I think I merely say that to stop the H4 swing up, the TFs below it must go down. And I asked if even the M15 has started down. Nowhere is there any mention by me of doing any selling when the M15 swing down.

In any case, I use more TFs than you do and do a bit different analysis of the swings. So I ALWAYS have a PLAN B for every entry in the event that, for example, a retracement fails by going too far rather than ending as a retracement.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #767,372
  • Aug 15, 2023 11:22am Aug 15, 2023 11:22am
Quoting TheWraith
{quote} M1 and M5 capitulated. M15 is next. Will it or not, God knows.. with shitty price action like this it's probably not going anywhere. If Daily closes below 1.2725, Sellers are still in the game.
Nice to see that you consulted all of those TFs and noted that the focus has moved to M15, considering that the TF of special interest is H4. And seems you have likely noted that the voloatility as displayed on M5 has fallen considerably, putting M15 into a range.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #767,373
  • Aug 15, 2023 11:26am Aug 15, 2023 11:26am
Quoting pipfarm
{quote} Here is a classic example , to the left is the 15 trend resuming down only to end up as another pb in the upside correction To the right is H1 trend continuation down which is the correct one, can show you many more examples if you wish as to why the lower timeframes are irrelevant depending on the point of origin of the main swing. {image}
to the left is the 15 trend resuming down only to end up as another pb in the upside correction
Which is exactly what I would expect, because there is a much larger TF that is controlling the UP direction bias. And the pullbacks must propagate upward through the TFs, with more TFs larger than M15 that need to make their pullbacks.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #767,374
  • Aug 15, 2023 11:27am Aug 15, 2023 11:27am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} Nice to see that you consulted all of those TFs and noted that the focus has moved to M15, considering that the TF of special interest is H4. And seems you have likely noted that the voloatility as displayed on M5 has fallen considerably, putting M15 into a range.

low volitility favors the bears right now
will retrace the lunatics that bought the retail sales number
short trump and go long the deepstate
  • #767,375
  • Aug 15, 2023 11:31am Aug 15, 2023 11:31am
Quoting T721
{quote} Hey pal, were approaching landing zone
Yes might take some off the table then load up again if price goes back up
  • #767,376
  • Aug 15, 2023 11:40am Aug 15, 2023 11:40am
In my opinion, the UK CPI tomorrow is set to stay above 7% and well above the consensus. What will the Pound's reaction be? Hard to tell, selloff if we're looking at the recent prints, but stay cautious.
  • #767,377
  • Aug 15, 2023 11:44am Aug 15, 2023 11:44am
Looks like DXy might have finished the correction on H4 and harmony is being restored across the board , sometimes my patience feels like it is running about but i learnt from experience not to jump the gun.

We a have short set ups for

eurusd and cable but we are not close to entry yet

audcad, audusd, nzdusd, audchf, eurchf entry on H1 ,eurcad (15 min entry) nzdcad, nsdchf, audsgd, eursgd, entry on H1

You might find some of these are still in corrective mode and i am awaiting a break down, same with the longs

Longs

euraud, eurnzd, gbpaud, gbpnzd, usdchf, all H1 entry

DXY setting up for a long
Follow The Markets Structure - Patience and Discipline
  • #767,378
  • Aug 15, 2023 11:49am Aug 15, 2023 11:49am
Quoting pipfarm
Looks like DXy might have finished the correction on H4 and harmony is being restored across the board , sometimes my patience feels like it is running about but i learnt from experience not to jump the gun. We a have short set ups for eurusd and cable but we are not close to entry yet audcad, audusd, nzdusd, audchf, entry on H1 , eurchf (d1 correction entry on H4) eurcad (15 min entry) nzdcad,nsdchf,audsgd, eursgd, entry on H1 You might find some of these are still in corrective mode and i am awaiting a break down, same with the longs Longs euraud,...
Will be watching it closely
  • #767,379
  • Aug 15, 2023 11:51am Aug 15, 2023 11:51am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} Did I say anything about making an ENTRY on M15? I think I merely say that to stop the H4 swing up, the TFs below it must go down. And I asked if even the M15 has started down. Nowhere is there any mention by me of doing any selling when the M15 swing down. In any case, I use more TFs than you do and do a bit different analysis of the swings. So I ALWAYS have a PLAN B for every entry in the event that, for example, a retracement fails by going too far rather than ending as a retracement.

In that case i do not see the point of monitoring all the lower timeframes.

Thanks for your explanation

Looks like GU is falling away from that D1 push into W1
Follow The Markets Structure - Patience and Discipline
  • #767,380
  • Aug 15, 2023 11:52am Aug 15, 2023 11:52am
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} Yes might take some off the table then load up again if price goes back up
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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