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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #13,901
  • May 29, 2007 1:14pm May 29, 2007 1:14pm
longs between 1.9700 and 1.9760 looks good to me. ill turn my position if 1.9700 is broken with momentum.

if it goes down there!?
  • #13,902
  • May 29, 2007 1:26pm May 29, 2007 1:26pm
the jpy statement still has me on my toes, but starting to see some action of it coming up. It still has a bit of a downward momentum. Waiting for a clearer signal before I go for a small long. Likely a decent breach past 800 again. Swing batter batter, swing away

GBP loves those last little spikes to keep you on your toes.
  • #13,903
  • May 29, 2007 1:33pm May 29, 2007 1:33pm
Quoting shadeslay
GBP loves those last little spikes to keep you on your toes.
experts and pros such as myslf are never on our toes. having said that, where is a good place to set stoploss for a long @ 9792 for this pair?
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #13,904
  • May 29, 2007 1:41pm May 29, 2007 1:41pm
Quoting bravado
experts and pros such as myslf are never on our toes. having said that, where is a good place to set stoploss for a long @ 9792 for this pair?
Maybe SL @1.9767
  • #13,905
  • May 29, 2007 1:42pm May 29, 2007 1:42pm
I would say if comes down to 785 it's likely to continue on with a down trend. I prefer very tight stops, you could add a few pips to that. With tight stops like that it can often hit it then come right back, but if it reaches that point it can just as likely keep going. So I prefer to take a small loss and re-assess the pair or just leave it alone and look else where.


Edit: actually I have the 5min coming down so it might spike to 780, it is crossed with the 1min and has 15min support up. but the 5min can still make decent moves. But if it breaches the last trough down 790, it could continue. As long as it remains above 790 it's a good signal the minor trend up is forming.
  • #13,906
  • May 29, 2007 1:48pm May 29, 2007 1:48pm
Quoting JoZo
Maybe SL @1.9767
Quoting shadeslay
I would say if comes down to 785 it's likely to continue on with a down trend. I prefer very tight stops, you could add a few pips to that.
okay. i'll look into both of your suggestions. both look good at the moment.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #13,907
  • May 29, 2007 2:11pm May 29, 2007 2:11pm
Quoting bravado
okay. i'll look into both of your suggestions. both look good at the moment.
It's always risky calling reversals, which is why I try to limit my exposer. If I lose 10 pips it's normally not a big deal. It's only 10 pips.

generally what I'll do with this next dip if it doesn't breach 790 is draw a trend line. From 790 to the next low, this is then my area of interest for the dip after. If it makes a breach past the trend line with decent price action that's my exit. If it doesn't I ride it until it does, constantly moving my stop just below the last dip by a few pips or if the trend picks up set a trailing stop just larger then then then largest peak-dip. Although some interpretation can be used with the trend line. If I'm positive in pips and it has breached the trend line but hasn't breached the last low in the trend line. I'll re-asses the pair again to see if it still has support to continue up, if not I exit.
  • #13,908
  • May 29, 2007 2:34pm May 29, 2007 2:34pm
Quoting shadeslay
It's always risky calling reversals, which is why I try to limit my exposer. If I lose 10 pips it's normally not a big deal. It's only 10 pips.

generally what I'll do with this next dip if it doesn't breach 790 is..to continue up, if not I exit.
sounds like mouteki. you can probably automate this.

http://www.forexfactory.com/forumdisplay.php?f=75
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #13,909
  • May 29, 2007 3:00pm May 29, 2007 3:00pm
Quoting bravado
sounds like mouteki.
Aye it is in part mouteki or at least the basic trend following principle. Over all my method is a bastard of quite a few systems. Using one another to confirm the the other, the more confirmations I have the more confidant I am of the trade. And the tighter the stop loss and exit I can place.
  • #13,910
  • May 29, 2007 4:04pm May 29, 2007 4:04pm
No reaction after the last news for today...
  • #13,911
  • May 29, 2007 4:26pm May 29, 2007 4:26pm
Quoting JoZo
No reaction after the last news for today...
Aye US market is closed, it's in slow crawl mode now. It should see a little more action with the Aud and jpy opens but normally not a whole lot. It's generally when I focus on those pairs then. Probably the easier markets to play, a bit more layed back.
  • #13,912
  • May 29, 2007 6:12pm May 29, 2007 6:12pm
Cable is in a nice downtrend ever since it hit the 2.0130 area (check out daily chart). It's now fallen back into that downward channel since that big news spike last week.

I just closed a long trade from 1.9820 to 1.9880 last night because I saw bullish divergence about a week ago. But after a week of holding that trade I see the bears are keeping the Cable in check. This morning (PST) I saw it testing support at 1.9790 so I'm now:

1) short at 1.9810;

2) expecting it to break through support at 1.9790 and continue on to its 100 SMA on the daily chart around 1.9700 for my profit take;

3) my stop loss is at 1.9850.

Right now it's still testing support at 1.9790 and I feel if it breaks that, then it's straight to 1.9700 in the next few days.

Where am I wrong/right?
  • #13,913
  • May 29, 2007 6:18pm May 29, 2007 6:18pm
Quoting I Wanna Trade
Right now it's still testing support at 1.9790 and I feel if it breaks that, then it's straight to 1.9700 in the next few days.

Where am I wrong/right?
this could happen.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #13,914
  • May 29, 2007 6:20pm May 29, 2007 6:20pm
i have the feeling, downward breaking is getting close to us.
Do set your profit taking point too close....may be around 150 pips
i am short on 9813 as well.

Quoting I wanna trade
Cable is in a nice downtrend ever since it hit the 2.0130 area (check out daily chart). It's now fallen back into that downward channel since that big news spike last week.

I just closed a long trade from 1.9820 to 1.9880 last night because I saw bullish divergence about a week ago. But after a week of holding that trade I see the bears are keeping the Cable in check. This morning (PST) I saw it testing support at 1.9790 so I'm now:

1) short at 1.9810;

2) expecting it to break through support at 1.9790 and continue on to its 100 SMA on the daily chart around 1.9700 for my profit take;

3) my stop loss is at 1.9850.

Right now it's still testing support at 1.9790 and I feel if it breaks that, then it's straight to 1.9700 in the next few days.

Where am I wrong/right?
  • #13,915
  • May 29, 2007 6:21pm May 29, 2007 6:21pm
and 19850 for sl is bit to tight....862 may be better
  • #13,916
  • May 29, 2007 6:36pm May 29, 2007 6:36pm
i see cable in a short term range [ 9790 - 9825 ], slightly favoring downside. for tonite, after 12 EST, if mkt opens below central pivot and 9780 holds, then upside bounce to test 9830 area. if mkt cannot sustain hrly closes above 9830, then more downside coming i think.
Until we see daily closes above 9850, i think it favors shortside. i am also watching for daily closes above 3475 in E/U and support to hold at 3415 area E/U as a clue for upside potential in in E/U and G/U.
let's see what happens.
  • #13,917
  • May 29, 2007 6:53pm May 29, 2007 6:53pm
Quoting winwise
i have the feeling, downward breaking is getting close to us.
Do set your profit taking point too close....may be around 150 pips
i am short on 9813 as well.
Thanks for the input. Can I ask where you got the SL and PT marks you mentioned? I put my SL at 1.9850 as that's at least 5 pips above 3 out of 4 of my moving averages (20, 50, 100) on the 1hr chart. I put my PT at 1.9700 because that's about where the 100 SMA is on the daily. But I can always raise the SL and take a half order PT at 1.9700. I was just wondering where you got your numbers from.

Thanks.
  • #13,918
  • May 29, 2007 8:23pm May 29, 2007 8:23pm
The GbpUsd has retraced to the weekly 50 fib level.
Attached Image
  • #13,919
  • May 29, 2007 8:31pm May 29, 2007 8:31pm
GbpUsd retraced to the weekly 50 fib level and has not broken the upper (green) trend line
Attached Image
  • #13,920
  • May 29, 2007 8:53pm May 29, 2007 8:53pm
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + FOMC annoucement = 1.9500
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