Cable Update (GBPUSD)

not bad

The pound aint trying to turn around. It has repeatedly made new highs. And its going higher. The pound should touch its high of 95 by next week. Unlike the British, the American government don't believe in prosperity for the American people. So the economy suffers. So, buy brits and sell yanks.

I begin to think maybe American government did it on purpose. If the dollar is weakening then their product can be more cheapper and it's good to compete with China and India.

To Moe,
I think your system give the right signal. I've already feel it since this morning that the price is gonna flying again.

Here is a picture perfect reverse head & shoulders for the Gbp/Usd on the 4 hr chart. It had a projected high for the pound of 1.9152 which it hit and exceeded by 13 pips at 1.9165 which is also the MPR1W (mid point between the pivot and R1 on the weekly). Tried to get this out at around 7am eastern but my computer froze up and I had to hurry to work. If a person had some success trading head and shoulders this would've helped him to grab some more pips. Sometimes they work out they they're supposed, I seen something like this on Gbp/Chf a few months ago and that one did not work. A lot of ways the head and shoulders is similar to Moteki (sp). Taking certain points and projecting a price.

[quote=alpin]I begin to think maybe American government did it on purpose. If the dollar is weakening then their product can be more cheapper and it's good to compete with China and India.

Maybe but there´re better reasons:

Written by Antonio Sousa, Currency Analyst
As many technical analysis traders will attest, patterns have and do form in the financial markets. The definition of Seasonality is that patterns occur predictably at given times of the year. Therefore it should come as no surprise then that there is also an interesting pattern in the US dollar’s behavior in the month of December.
Euro – US Dollar (EUR/USD)

Over the past 20 years, historical analysis indicates that from December 1st to December 31st, the euro appreciated against the U.S. dollar 15 out of 20 times, which is roughly 75 percent of the total sample. The seasonality is stronger if we zoom into the last 12 years where the currency appreciated 10 out of the 12 samples. (Synthetic euro prices were used prior to January 1999). There are many reasons to explain this, but the most obvious may be year end repatriation out of US dollar assets. More specifically, the data indicates that the Euro gained on average, 3 percent during the positive months and lost just 1.41 percent during the negative months. This suggests that even if we have a strong holiday shopping season in the US, first off, the effect on the currency may not be seen until January and secondly, any optimism about potential sales that is generated in December may not be reflected in the US dollar’s price action that month.

http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/...2.2006img1.gif


The seasonality effect is fairly strong in the GBP/USD and USD/CHF but is weak in USD/JPY.

British pound – US Dollar (GBP/USD)

The sterling appreciated against the U.S. dollar in the month of December, 14 out of the past 20 years times which is roughly 70 percent of the total sample. Like the EUR/USD, the seasonality factor was stronger in the last 10 years with the GBP/USD appreciating 8 years out of the last 10 samples. On average, the GBP/USD gained 2.37 percent during the positive months and lost only 1.15 percent during the negative months.

http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/...2.2006img2.gif


US Dollar – Japanese Yen (USD/JPY)

Since 2002, the U.S. dollar has depreciated against the Japanese yen during the month of December but over the past 20 years, the U.S. dollar fell against the Japanese Yen 9 out of 26 times, which indicates a very low seasonality factor. On average, the Japanese yen gained 3.41 percent during the positive months and lost 2.04 percent during the negative months.

http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/...2.2006img3.gif


US Dollar – Swiss Franc (USDCHF)

Over the past 20 years the US dollar fell against the Swiss franc 14 out of the 20 times in the month December which represents 70 percent of the total sample. Dollar losses were more visible in the past 7 years with the USD/CHF falling during 6 of those occasions. The Swiss franc gained on average 2.83 percent during the positive months and 2.01 percent during the losing months.

http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/...2.2006img4.gif


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and here you have more support for a weaker dollar:

Written by Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist

<o></o>· Carry Trade Liquidation Hits the <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">US</st1:country-region></st1lace> Dollar<o></o>

<st1:country-region w:st="on">US</st1:country-region> Dollar – Traders banked their four day rolls at the close of business yesterday and began a massive liquidation out of carry trades that sent the <st1:country-region w:st="on">US</st1:country-region> dollar sliding to its lowest level against the Euro in 14 <st1:state w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">mont</st1lace></st1:state>hs. Just as everyone has settled into the notion that it would be a quiet trading week, volatility spiked and currencies began to move. Given that many <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">US</st1:country-region></st1lace> and Japanese traders have left early for the holidays, which is quite common this time of the year, the lack of significant liquidity is sure to have played a major role in today’s exaggerated price action. The dollar’s biggest drop was against the Swiss Franc and the <st1:country-region w:st="on">Japan</st1:country-region>ese Yen, both of which are very popular carry trades. Looking ahead, we want to warn that the combination of a depreciating dollar and a bleaker <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">US</st1:country-region></st1lace> economic outlook could resurrect talk of reserve diversification by central banks. This was the same case in 2004 when talk of reserve diversification was at its peak as the Euro surged from 1.22 to 1.3660 in a matter of 3.5 <st1:state w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">mont</st1lace></st1:state>hs. With the market so dollar bearish, any talk of reserve diversification could take the EUR/USD above 1.30. According to an interesting price study that we published as a special report today on DailyFX.com, over the past 20 years, the <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">US</st1:country-region></st1lace> dollar depreciated against the Euro 15 out of those 20 years during the month of December. The seasonality is even more apparent if we zoom into the past 12 years, where there were only two instances that the <st1:country-region w:st="on">US</st1:country-region> dollar managed to rally in the last <st1:state w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">mont</st1lace></st1:state>h of year. Meanwhile only minor economic data was released today. Weekly mortgage applications dropped last week by 3.7 percent, erasing most of the prior week’s gains. Jobless claims ticked higher, bringing the 4 week average to 317k, which signals that payrolls could be a bit softer in November. The final <st1lace w:st="on"><st1lacetype w:st="on">University</st1lacetype> of <st1:state w:st="on"><st1lacename w:st="on">Michigan</st1lacename></st1:state></st1lace> consumer confidence index was also revised down from 92.3 to 92.1 as consumers were slightly less optimistic about the current economy. <o></o>

<o> </o>

Hey Tragapips

Appreciate the information. Price before and not after the facts is what we want. Of course nothing gauranteed but definetly something to use in swing trading strategy. Once again thanks.

Guys the last time GU hit above 1.9160 it's only takes few hour to falling back to 1.9100 and takes 1 day to retraced back to 1.900. But this time it's different, it's already 1 day and there is no sign that it's gonna falling to 1.9100 infact it's keep pushing higher and higher. And I don't think it's just because Thanks giving day. So do you still think GU gonna falling in monday?

Ain't sure of anyhting anymore. However, cable looks spiky on 4hr and swissie has a pin bar forming still on 4hr. Euro is at the top of the channel too... All this tells me a retrace is overdue.

Still short from last night at 9154 and S/L still 9188

Closed my short positions earlier today for a 20 pip profit. Waiting to go long at the 1.9130-1.9140 level or at 1.9180, whichever is hit first.

That's what it looks like to me on the daily. If so point 5 should be no higher than point 3 at 1.9176. If that's not true, the next stopping point would be at 1.9236. I think it goes down at one of those.

You my man/ma'am are a very wise business person and trader. You must look at the over all picture. You forgot to mention the most important nation, Japan. If Japan didn't invent the system of "trading" they surely refined it.

So this might be cheating...

I had three small (35 to 40 pip) breakUP trades this week on the GBP in my live acct. But the big winner this week was my PipBoxerGBP EA demo that grabbed 83 pips from 1.8987>1.9064 and is currently in a trade at +71 in at 1.9088 with price at 1.9159 with TP set by EA at 1.9171 but pips are already locked in so it's a free trade at this point. Wish it were real money instead of just monopoly $$ !

: ) Thom

How can it retrace like that during holiday season?... You have high expectations.

Today we will see the decision move. Up or down. I am counting my chickens for down.

It can happen. remember this is forex.

The Pound is trading between 9170 to 9149 right now. Place stops at 72 & 47. Place trendline under support and resistance in order to catch trend reversals.

look like we gonna get some movement this mourning

Up or Down? Only 50%

so far im getting a weak sell signal, my system is checking it out trying to get a confirmation

It is about a time!

Hopefully we are sitting on TOP!