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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #764,621
  • Aug 6, 2023 12:08pm Aug 6, 2023 12:08pm
Quoting TheWraith
If we are using the same tools as the rest of 90% of traders are, then it's safe to assume we are that 90%. What happens then? See for yourself... {image}
Scotiabank COT gives a more accurate indication using futures. Couple months ago i used to follow their report, now i only stick to structure and fundamentals.
More time in the market, does not mean you trade better!
  • #764,622
  • Aug 6, 2023 12:12pm Aug 6, 2023 12:12pm
by the time the COT report comes out, it is no longer valid almost.
  • #764,623
  • Aug 6, 2023 12:19pm Aug 6, 2023 12:19pm
Quoting tiborf71
by the time the COT report comes out, it is no longer valid almost.
Agreed, lag effect.

Posted end of weeks only. But quite indicative to have a bias which sides the long term money are betting- you can see that through their net changes of longs to shorts or vice versa.
However, using this or clients of a broker sentiments only to make your trading decision is a quick way to get fucked up.

From risk reward perspective, sticking to your TA only, will give the highest yielding trades. Not fundamentals or COT.
These can only be used to have an insight which direction is favourable.
More time in the market, does not mean you trade better!
  • #764,624
  • Aug 6, 2023 12:30pm Aug 6, 2023 12:30pm
I'm not sure on futures but for forex I disagree regarding COT reports no longer being valid after release. These are long term traders holding for months at a time.

I built a strength indicator based on COT reports. As seen on this post.

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...3#post13215223

Then reviewed it 1.5 years later on this post.

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/post/13917254#post13917254

The results were pretty crazy in my eyes. Sure not all trades were correct and some you would have been in drawdown but the general direction over the long-term was bang on.
  • #764,625
  • Aug 6, 2023 12:36pm Aug 6, 2023 12:36pm
Here is my analysis on EURJPY
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My telegram: https://t.me/avidforex
  • #764,626
  • Aug 6, 2023 12:43pm Aug 6, 2023 12:43pm
Quoting Scotteyy
I'm not sure on futures but for forex I disagree regarding COT reports no longer being valid after release. These are long term traders holding for months at a time. I built a strength indicator based on COT reports. As seen on this post. https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...3#post13215223 Then reviewed it 1.5 years later on this post. https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/post/13917254#post13917254 The results were pretty crazy in my eyes. Sure not all...
I simply do not consider it reliable enough to open a position based on the data.
SL, TP, DD?
  • #764,627
  • Aug 6, 2023 1:19pm Aug 6, 2023 1:19pm
Quoting tiborf71
{quote} I simply do not consider it reliable enough to open a position based on the data. SL, TP, DD?
I mean if you are going to trade with COT reports, like institutional traders, then trade like institutional traders. You'd build into positions, obviously this must mean you have the account size and acceptable risk to do so and you may be in drawdown for a while. I think the worse drawdown I saw was around 500 pips from the time of my prediction but after that you were around 1000 pips in profit. Other trades (if I had taken them) had similar profits without the drawdown. You can see via the posts.

If your strategy is to hold trades a day or two, or even a week or two then I agree, COT reports have no use to you other than to give you an idea of the general direction the institutional traders are wanting to take the currency. However, I'd still rather just use market structure to determine my trades on these timeframes and move in the direction of the MM using that.

If you are willing to hold trades for months or even years, have the mindset to add to positions and can afford the drawdown to do so then COT reports can be very useful imo.
  • #764,628
  • Aug 6, 2023 1:21pm Aug 6, 2023 1:21pm
Pretty peaceful weekend...
  • #764,629
  • Aug 6, 2023 1:23pm Aug 6, 2023 1:23pm
Quoting Steverino832
https://youtu.be/4FGnb2lgPBA
Great message, thank you so much.
Face 'ur fears & tame 'ur greed
  • #764,630
  • Aug 6, 2023 1:38pm Aug 6, 2023 1:38pm
It is as though everyone was “born yesterday” and they wake up, log onto social media and are then given their orders on what to believe. Yet, no one seems to remember how wrong many of our “distinguished experts” and media personalities have been in the past and how many times. If it happened more than two days ago, well it didn’t happen.

--Rob Smith--
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #764,631
  • Aug 6, 2023 2:00pm Aug 6, 2023 2:00pm
Quoting Waveskierrob
{image} ....still open ...Mr T...whats your tp on the FTSE
Sorry pal, just seen this post.. Gettin a bit slow in maold age. Keeping it to under 7400 --- target down to green circle... PS, this could retrace back up a bit before the next drop probably back tp 7575 but will hip tp. I will keep loading
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  • #764,632
  • Aug 6, 2023 2:15pm Aug 6, 2023 2:15pm
Quoting T721
{quote} Sorry pal, just seen this post.. Gettin a bit slow in maold age. Keeping it to under 7400 --- target down to green circle... PS, this could retrace back up a bit before the next drop probably back tp 7575 but will hip tp. I will keep loading {image} {image}
Many thanks...
  • #764,633
  • Aug 6, 2023 2:23pm Aug 6, 2023 2:23pm
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} Many thanks...
Lets make some coin
  • #764,634
  • Aug 6, 2023 2:23pm Aug 6, 2023 2:23pm
Quoting genadi
{quote} Why are you ignoring Moty?
I'm ignoring him first
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yes yes yes
  • #764,635
  • Aug 6, 2023 2:23pm Aug 6, 2023 2:23pm
Quoting genadi
{quote} Why are you ignoring Moty?
I'm ignoring him first
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yes yes yes
  • #764,636
  • Aug 6, 2023 2:28pm Aug 6, 2023 2:28pm
Why don't FF remove the posts entirely if you have blocked someone? That doesn't make sense to me...
Isn't the idea of blocking someone because you don't want to see their posts?
  • #764,637
  • Aug 6, 2023 2:33pm Aug 6, 2023 2:33pm
Quoting TheWraith
Why don't FF remove the posts entirely if you have blocked someone? That doesn't make sense to me... Isn't the idea of blocking someone because you don't want to see their posts?
Other users who have not blocked may want to see the post
Intraday only.
  • #764,638
  • Aug 6, 2023 2:34pm Aug 6, 2023 2:34pm
Quoting TheWraith
Why don't FF remove the posts entirely if you have blocked someone? That doesn't make sense to me... Isn't the idea of blocking someone because you don't want to see their posts?
Gives folks a second chance to read a post then maybe reply, which in turn creates traffic, which then creates higher price for advertisers to advertise their products
  • #764,639
  • Aug 6, 2023 2:34pm Aug 6, 2023 2:34pm
Quoting navk
{quote} Other users who have not blocked may want to see the post
Okay? They would see the post, because it's not them who blocked the said person?
Like in this example above. You can see the post, but it's hidden only to Moty.
  • #764,640
  • Aug 6, 2023 2:38pm Aug 6, 2023 2:38pm
Quoting TheWraith
Why don't FF remove the posts entirely if you have blocked someone? That doesn't make sense to me... Isn't the idea of blocking someone because you don't want to see their posts?
agree.. so annoying.
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