Cable Update (GBPUSD)

AUG 2023 Bank NFP estimates.

Saw a guy on twitter did a computation Using ADP seasonally Adjusted and some more mathematical equation, he also get a >Consensus NFP.


PS- If you dont believe or use fundamental, please do me a favour dont quote me

Consider modeling financial time series according to chaos theory. That is, price is a point moving through trading space, stretching or folding the space as it moves. Because we are dealing with self-similarity and fractal patterns, just as we can see a pattern in a plot of the Mandlebrodt set that by zooming in, EXACTLY the same pattern is repeated, we see the same with financial time series. And the zooming in (or out) can be done to ANY degree, and that pattern is ALWAYS there.

This is why we can make a currency plot of say closing price and view the H4 TF and see a 1-2-3 swing pattern create an up trend, then select only one of those swings and "zoom in" to the H1 TF and lo and behold, there is that 1-2-3 pattern again. And again, select just one of the swings of the H1, zoom in via the M15, and voila--1-2-3 pattern. And these patterns MUST unfold from smaller TFs and propagate upward through the TFs.

Chaos theory affords better explanations for many phenomena or properties found in financial time series. For example, other models explain a black swan event as an outlier. A chaos model INCLUDES such an event as simply a normal event in stretching of space by price. Also, a chaos model explains a trend as a parabolic stretching of space as price moves from one strange atttractor turned repulsor to a matching "zoom level" strange atttractor. That is, a strange attractor at a swing low on H4 must travel to a strange attractor swing high on H4: ALL smaller "zoom levels" (fractals), i.e smaller TFs, than H4 must be doing up-and-down cycling that takes H4 in a general upward direction, because on the H4 view is a high strange attractor SOMEWHERE higher than the repulsor that the move started from, that is "pulling" price up to it. If you think about it, this is also why a higher TF goes into a consolidation phase: Each smaller TF MUST go through its own set of cycles. So the larger the TF that you have decided to make your "viewport", the more the number of smaller TFs that must go through cycling. And keep in mind that EVERY swing on a a given TF WILL have a smaller TF that includes a 1-2-3 pattern. And all three of those swings WILL have a corresponding 1-2-3 pattern on an even smaller TF.

Some models use an underlying assumption that price movement over time is random, and that given a specific starting price, there is only a probability of the next price being a selected value. But the chaos model says that it is not random at all, but with any given starting price, the next price will ALWAYS be the same value. That is, there is some function involved that produces a 1-to1 mapping of a starting price value to the next price value. The apparent "problem" derives from the popularized (and hence misunderstood) butterfly effect. For many functions that we are familiar with, if we choose a starting value X1 and then plot the resulting value Y1, we ALWAYS get only Y1 starting with X1. And then if we use X2, which is only slightly larger than X1, we intuitively expect the Y2 will be just a little bit bigger than Y2. And If we go through the plotting of several Xs and their resulting Ys, with each X just a bit different than the previous X, just as expected, the set of Ys are all very close together. But in the chaos model, when a new X is selected, no matter how close OR how far it is from the previous X we have NO IDEA how close the new Y will be to the previous Y. That is, X2 can be infinitesimally close to (or extremely far from) X1 and Y2 can be ANYWHERE, extremely close OR extremely far or anywhere between, to Y1. That is the butterfly effect: A system in which a starting value that produces some neutral result can, with the tiniest change in the starting value, produce some unbelievably different result, usually portrayed in popular media as a catastrophic result. And thus, we have an explanation for the wild swings, such as the "falling knife" as well as the cases where price then immediately bounces back up an recovers nearly all of the drop: It is impossible to predict what the next price value will be, and if price is making a strong stretching of space, the next price value at that viewport (TF) will be far away. No need to invoke, news, probablity, volatility, FVG seeking, liquidity grab, will of god, nor any other causative agent.

And because with a chaos model it is IMPOSSIBLE to predict or calculate where price will finally stop and turn when given a starting value, this explains why all of the methods we see every day that are applied to try to predict a high or low swing point fail. But if a FOLLOW THE LEADER approach is used, we can track where the price has actually STOPPED at a strange attractor and then on the smaller TFs, begin to look for entry opportunities in the newly turned direction of that higher TF. This is how a top-down look for "control" followed by bottom-up search for entries is so effective.

So tomofx has opted out and shown their metal. Pity, cool name.

johnny blue. played a little piano.

aaaand a beeer or three

...a typical pre-NFP market?

Not holding anything open before NFP...hope to get involved on the other side of it, particularly if we get momentum and broker behaves itself re spreads/freezes etc..., then buy the 1st lo/sell the 1st hi....then sell/buy the 1st pullback respectively...would be my favoured tactic if it sets-up that way.

Who would thought they could combine piano and guitar and get such good sound?
no need to overcomplicate things, what works - works!
That JB must be good for backache. Will try it some day!

Waiting for the drumroll.
You scalping this btw?

https://forex-station.com/viewtopic....lit=a+new+game

can anyone help me ,I want to take a payout from my forex funds MFF ,which crypto network will be good

Not really, IF you look at the underwritten agreements between big commerce and new technologies. The Japan saga is a lot like being 2nd base holder at the yankees. Not the most glamorous position to play but can hit the plate before the runner sees the mound. Japan's social and intra-economics are about the same as other places."Looks different" to the outsider but they're the same. You have to use layered approaches to see the different agreements. Eg social, educational etc. Most people never bother to learn what the BOJ actually does. Just assume it's something "important". Demographic internals can be neutralized (theoretically) by setting new standards eg in recent history - Hong Kong market. But the global connectors and parities that are concurrent, will not allow a 'perfect match' so we still have [eg. wealthy=not wealthy]. The semi individualized are absorbed by the preset 'big picture' backdrop. Buut most people don't think they have any responsibility in the backdrop so they go on pretending "it's someone else's problem".

A quick input and recap.

Hi, Hope to, see my post above, those are my favoured tactics during a big data release, but we'll see, will stay flat if it doesn't set-up.

and dempire1 has hit the old ignore. There's your metal. SO when do I receive my 30 pieces of silver ???????

https://unesdoc.unesco.org/ark:/48223/pf0000211154

for price chart trading and analysis, sure. But real life requires the other layers. Sorry but true.

Yes good music.

Yeah very smoooooooth.

In my opinion, you are right about the direction of the market. But, i think not is the correct time yet. You want to be a professional, think and do as a professional.

In my opinion, retracements occur as a shorter-term analysis of a longer-term price movement. When the price has reached some value at which the market participants do not find value at a more extreme price and there is not even a belief that price is at a fair value (if it were, price would go into a narow range as participants haggle over a few cents above/below this fair value point), but rather the current price is over (under) valued, and enough participants agree such that a quoted lower (higher) price is worth entering a deal for. Because this is a shoter-term reaction, the longer-term outlook is still dominant, and price reaches another point where the value is is unfavored and the long-term direction resumes. But if instead a reversal unfolds, it is because of a change of the longer-term outlook.

But in addition to the the above logic, with our modern-era algorithmic-based trading, I suspect that some of the software is programmed to buy/sell some quantity of currency at some range of prices, with an algorithm that calculates order size and acceptable price at any given moment in such a way that a certain net profit is calculated to be achieved. So, if a player has a load of USD and he needs to buy a load of GBP, he just enters the GBP quantity and desired price, the limit on the amount of USD that can be spent, and then turns the algo loose to do the dirty work of deciding lot sizes and prices and when to put them into the order book.

Does some people are looking for short on Eurusd ?