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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #13,781
  • May 27, 2007 8:47pm May 27, 2007 8:47pm
Quoting Igrok
240 min chart
EXactly what i have been watching these past few days. And exactly what I think. Looks like we are the only bears in this place.. ROAR
  • #13,782
  • May 27, 2007 9:32pm May 27, 2007 9:32pm
Quoting Igrok
This pattern is not a diamond yet. It just might become one. There are several different types of diamonds and each has his own criteria for identification and projection. I can't put all this info into one post as it has to be explained, illustrated and will take more than a dozen pages to discuss all the issues, rules, possible scenarios and so on. This whole diamond analysis theory is not as simple as it might look like.
Is there a thread here on FF about it? Another website with some stuff already on it? It didn't expect you to write everything on it. I guess if your going to post charts here with the hint of the analysis on it a little more complimentary info might be useful to the reader so it's something that can be used. So if there is somewhere with something written about it I'd be appreciative.
  • #13,783
  • May 27, 2007 9:38pm May 27, 2007 9:38pm
Quoting Pipsta
Is there a thread here on FF about it? Another website with some stuff already on it? It didn't expect you to write everything on it. I guess if your going to post charts here with the hint of the analysis on it a little more complimentary info might be useful to the reader so it's something that can be used. So if there is somewhere with something written about it I'd be appreciative.
Have never seen anything published on the issue. I do my own research.
  • #13,784
  • May 28, 2007 2:07am May 28, 2007 2:07am
Quoting SunTrader
Well when you draw fib retracement the 50% is always in the right spot no matter what. But the longer term fib ret should be drawn reversed - lower %'s above and higher %'s below. Shorter term is correct.

Meanwhile yes it is a bull flag but I would watch for a clean breakout of down channel before doing anything.
I have corrected my chart now and will know in future. I had already considered your advice about clean breakout. I thought I would go long after a day close above.

Thanks.
  • #13,785
  • May 28, 2007 2:11am May 28, 2007 2:11am
Quoting shadeslay
The retracement should always start with 0% and work it's way to 23%, 36% etc.. On one of the threads it stated 23% bring hit about 80% of the time on a retrace and the 36% in the low 70% range. Although that varies by currency.

I would agree wait for a clear signal just because the pattern is there doesn't mean it will play out. It's like any other indicator, it gives you an idea of where and when to watch for a break out or price action.
Thanks
  • #13,786
  • May 28, 2007 2:40am May 28, 2007 2:40am
Quoting Igrok
Have never seen anything published on the issue. I do my own research.
Igrok, could you just explain how you arrive at your points of reference on the upper line of your down trend channel? It looks as if you only use the most recent activity. Is that correct?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: trendchannel.jpg Size: 36 KB
  • #13,787
  • Edited 3:16am May 28, 2007 2:44am | Edited 3:16am
Sell @ 1.9839 fora move to 1.9770 SL 1.9847
  • #13,788
  • May 28, 2007 2:52am May 28, 2007 2:52am
Quoting goonergonebad
Igrok, could you just explain how you arrive at your points of reference on the upper line of your down trend channel? It looks as if you only use the most recent activity. Is that correct?
No. This line is not about down trend channnel. I just put is there to draw the upper border for a potential diamond. There is no other meaning for it.
  • #13,789
  • May 28, 2007 3:08am May 28, 2007 3:08am
Quoting Igrok
No. This line is not about down trend channnel. I just put is there to draw the upper border for a potential diamond. There is no other meaning for it.
And to think that someone on this forum once accused me of drawing lines randomly on a chart....

Just a joke - I know you have a method and a reason.
  • #13,790
  • May 28, 2007 5:23am May 28, 2007 5:23am
Quoting goonergonebad
And to think that someone on this forum once accused me of drawing lines randomly on a chart....

Just a joke - I know you have a method and a reason.
  • #13,791
  • May 28, 2007 5:41am May 28, 2007 5:41am
UK business confidence is increasing despite higher interest rates, a survey by accountancy firm KPMG has found.
KPMG said that 64% of the small and medium-sized companies it polled were optimistic about the outlook for businesses over the next 12 months.
According to KPMG that is the highest level of optimism since 2004.
The Bank of England has been steadily raising interest rates to 5.5% to slow inflation and there were fears it would have hurt consumer demand and profit.
Even though the majority of firms are upbeat about the future, KPMG said that two-thirds of the businesses surveyed would prefer interest rates to remain where they are.
KPMG questioned businesses with an annual turnover of between £5m and £500m.
"There is an obvious concern among those questioned that interest rates are going to continue to increase," said Mel Egglenton, KPMG's head of UK middle market.
Toughening up
Mr Egglenton said that it was important to remember the survey dealt with business people not economists, and as result was based on the strength of order books not macro-economic analysis.
He added that it was "hard to put a finger on" why companies were feeling so much more optimistic than in earlier surveys.
"It wasn't that long ago that small- to medium-sized businesses were struggling with rising energy costs," he said.

http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gifhttp://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/...t_quote_rb.gif To see these businesses in confident mood and with healthy order books surely bodes well for the future http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/...d_quote_rb.gif Mel Egglenton, KPMG

"Many had to look hard at ways to improve their efficiency, and perhaps as a result they are now left with businesses that are more robust than they would have been otherwise.
"It appears that those who felt the pinch over the last year or two have now steadied the ship and are looking forward to the next 12 months with a renewed sense of optimism," he concluded.

The survey found that more than three quarters of those questioned were upbeat about the outlook for their own businesses, the highest figure since 2003, KPMG said.
At the same time, a similar number were also optimistic about their prospects overseas, and were feeling "competitive' or "extremely competitive" within Europe.
KPMG found this feel-good factor extended to the UK economy as a whole, with 58% of those polled saying they felt it was on an "upward curve". "To see these businesses in confident mood and with healthy order books surely bodes well for the future," Mr Egglenton said.
  • #13,792
  • May 28, 2007 9:43am May 28, 2007 9:43am
I agree with Pipsta - you got me curious with this whole diamond stuff. I'm not too keen on researching on the net about diamonds though: my sentimental partner might peep in the screen over my shoulder, see a fat, shinning diamond and get all excited for no reason!
  • #13,793
  • May 28, 2007 9:53am May 28, 2007 9:53am
After the boe minutes was announced, bullish gbp sentiments were renewed..

However, we will need to wait out further developments in the US and UK data.. this week we will see NFP and next week BOE rate decision.

Where do I stand? I am currently leaning a little towards the bullish side. but will buy only on good price dips.
  • #13,794
  • May 28, 2007 10:13am May 28, 2007 10:13am
A 25 pip daily range seems to me the world record of the lowest daily range in all known history!

Can someone confirm this???
  • #13,795
  • May 28, 2007 10:17am May 28, 2007 10:17am
What do you expect for today? UK and US are both on holiday.
  • #13,796
  • May 28, 2007 10:21am May 28, 2007 10:21am
Quoting camisa
A 25 pip daily range seems to me the world record of the lowest daily range in all known history!

Can someone confirm this???
15 Feb 2004 and few days in Nov 2002. Less than 20, even 10 pips daily range. Please confirm in your chart, maybe it's not true.
Tra-X
  • #13,797
  • May 28, 2007 10:23am May 28, 2007 10:23am
Quoting BurgerKing
What do you expect for today? UK and US are both on holiday.
But it would be so much fun if Chinese stocks had crashed today....

"Hey Jack, drop the burger! China exploded today. Our stops are getting killed like fies!!!!!!!! "

  • #13,798
  • May 28, 2007 10:25am May 28, 2007 10:25am
Quoting BurgerKing
What do you expect for today? UK and US are both on holiday.
even for a holiday cable always moves around 60/70 pips...

traex: 15 feb 2004 was a sunday so it doesn't count; in november 2002 and despite that cable was around 1.55 (not 1.9x!) I can't see any day below 40 pips range
  • #13,799
  • May 28, 2007 3:48pm May 28, 2007 3:48pm
Anybody know where i can get GBP/USD charts, MetaTrader is confusing because of the times.
  • #13,800
  • May 28, 2007 3:59pm May 28, 2007 3:59pm
Quoting camisa
A 25 pip daily range seems to me the world record of the lowest daily range in all known history!
I can only scalp 8 pips today in this short range.
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