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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #763,461
  • Aug 2, 2023 11:20am Aug 2, 2023 11:20am
Quoting BeeTogether
ADP is rated a yellow sticker on dailyfx yet it helped open the trapdoor for a significant drop. 12680 looks a weak support this could be a drop for liquidity to move up towards 128-129 especially with BoE and NFP this week. 0.25 is a dead cert can’t see 0.5 so the reaction could be muted and help push the pound down unless there is talks to carry on the rises and a bigger one if things don’t calm down. Either way 130 is out of my view on 4H as but 125-123 is starting to appear
Expect boe rate to be bearish for GU.
Market priced in around 39% for 50bps,but am expecting BOE to deliver 25bps only.
Could easily get 60-70 pips move tomorrow.
Will wait to see how structure playing out- the expected move will be in favour of structure.
More time in the market, does not mean you trade better!
  • #763,462
  • Aug 2, 2023 11:21am Aug 2, 2023 11:21am
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} + 320 now ..
love it when a plan comes togerher folks, FTSE now +418...
  • #763,463
  • Aug 2, 2023 11:28am Aug 2, 2023 11:28am
Quoting Headland
{quote} Hi, If I may say, as I responded to one of PeterCaleb's posts recently. perhaps a little more pointedly than your reply; That post above you refer to was as cryptic, disjointed, and badly argued as most of his posts. You and I know that of course there is a very high likelihood that the market responded to the ADP report (not a forecast of the official U.s Bureau of labor statistics NFP report, [or reports to be more accurate,] but a stand-alone independent report.) It did so by buying $ and although it knows that there can be variance between...
On the same note sir, i see adp employment as a manipulation.
It is not the actual employment figure, so the big guys use it trap retails on the wrong side. Then when the true employment figure is out (nfp), the real move happens.
More time in the market, does not mean you trade better!
  • #763,464
  • Aug 2, 2023 11:37am Aug 2, 2023 11:37am
Quoting voeltoez
{quote} my target for long just 2740-60...tomorrow asian will be interesting..more low coming {image}
bagi saldo om
10000% Wannabe . -$3000 & -$4000
Gold Recovery All Time Profit: -$3,961
  • #763,465
  • Aug 2, 2023 11:38am Aug 2, 2023 11:38am
AUDUSD long…


Us30 not for little mind. Just a small draw down I was seeing -5k I had to manage the trade and close it man.

I made profit though, over all but the day my emotions will fail me, US30 will mess me up. I’m not emotionally ready to trade it. It is too heavy
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My telegram: https://t.me/avidforex
  • #763,466
  • Aug 2, 2023 11:41am Aug 2, 2023 11:41am
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Together we can be strongest
Vantage Return This Month: na
  • #763,467
  • Edited 12:15pm Aug 2, 2023 11:51am | Edited 12:15pm
Quoting Fardeen1209
{quote} Expect boe rate to be bearish for GU. Market priced in around 39% for 50bps,but am expecting BOE to deliver 25bps only. Could easily get 60-70 pips move tomorrow. Will wait to see how structure playing out- the expected move will be in favour of structure.
Nomura BOE MPC for Aug 2023 forecast
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EDIT:

Why 25bps hike is more favourable and not 50bps?
#1 Both CPI headline and Core have shown signed of deceleration
#2 GDP varied between +/- 0.1%
#3 OIS curve (aka terminal rate) as from Aug 1 2023, it is priced in at 5.6%. We are at 5.0%. If BOE rate hike by 50bps - will put us very close to terminal rate and we will have another meeting this year.

50bps -
Might put pressure on the GDP: -ve for GU
25bps -
~35% 50% priced in will cause a shift in yield curve. Again -ve for Pound.

GU - 30mins
Target 1.263
Quoting Fardeen1209
{quote} Mee too. Worst case 1.255, Mid Case 1.263
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Worth 2 cents Analysis
Could be wrong
More time in the market, does not mean you trade better!
  • #763,468
  • Aug 2, 2023 11:52am Aug 2, 2023 11:52am
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #763,469
  • Aug 2, 2023 11:53am Aug 2, 2023 11:53am
Quoting navk
FTMO aprovado hoje {image}
Congrats.
Together we can be strongest
Vantage Return This Month: na
  • #763,470
  • Aug 2, 2023 11:56am Aug 2, 2023 11:56am
Added GBPAUD & GBPNZD to my collection.
Trade at your own risk.
  • #763,471
  • Aug 2, 2023 12:06pm Aug 2, 2023 12:06pm
Quoting shakmoney
{quote} what is your immediate target just curious
50 pip rise finished.
Intraday only.
  • #763,472
  • Aug 2, 2023 12:16pm Aug 2, 2023 12:16pm
Quoting Moty
Close that gap mf {image}
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yes yes yes
  • #763,473
  • Aug 2, 2023 12:23pm Aug 2, 2023 12:23pm
Quoting pipfarm
These are the current set ups i am looking at CHFJPY D1-H1 for entry long GBPJPY D1-H1 for entry long GBPCAD D1-H1 for short - see chart in previous post EURJPY D1-H1 for long
Might have to wait a while for these , need to see a dip on H4 to confirm the corrections are over, current push up probably just the B of the abc so letz not get trapped in that small rally up thinking it is the start of the H4 swing to move back up
Follow The Markets Structure - Patience and Discipline
  • #763,474
  • Aug 2, 2023 12:25pm Aug 2, 2023 12:25pm
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} Me too Leon, aren't we just the best... {image}
Waveski, at this point, after raking more than 100 BPs day after day, you should inform people here that you are good at reading market structure. Yes, it's time.
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
  • #763,475
  • Aug 2, 2023 12:26pm Aug 2, 2023 12:26pm
Quoting pipfarm
Could be a nice short on this GBPCAD If the last swing down starts to trend, trade comes from daily down wave with a correction moving through H4 making a 5 wave corrective pattern down to H1 for the entry, slightly more complicated trade because the D1 correction was slightly complex. Everyone of those swings subdivided into 3s {image}

The rally after the drop is in now , currently no break below the low 6905 as we must stay within the current swing down to short for the first wave down if it happens
Follow The Markets Structure - Patience and Discipline
  • #763,476
  • Aug 2, 2023 12:52pm Aug 2, 2023 12:52pm
reached 50 by Fibo, put in short
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  • #763,477
  • Aug 2, 2023 12:57pm Aug 2, 2023 12:57pm
Short 12732, SL 12752, TP Open.
  • #763,478
  • Aug 2, 2023 1:01pm Aug 2, 2023 1:01pm
Quoting navk
FTMO Passed today {image}
Congratulations!!!
Yippee
  • #763,479
  • Aug 2, 2023 1:04pm Aug 2, 2023 1:04pm
Quoting navk
FTMO Passed today {image}
Great work as usual from you
  • #763,480
  • Aug 2, 2023 1:04pm Aug 2, 2023 1:04pm
Quoting BigNumbers
AUDUSD long… Us30 not for little mind. Just a small draw down I was seeing -5k I had to manage the trade and close it man. I made profit though, over all but the day my emotions will fail me, US30 will mess me up. I’m not emotionally ready to trade it. It is too heavy {image}
Lolz...those indices could be crazy if you're caught against the trend. Sorry man
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