Attachments: Statistical Probability Trading With Price Action

Statistical Probability Trading With Price Action

#81
May 24, 2007 12:25am May 24, 2007 12:25am

goodthings
Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Trader | 1,852 Posts

4Hr Candle/Bar Ranges

Below are the ranges between the high and low of each 4 hour time period for the below currencies. All times are US eastern.
GbpUsd EurJpy GbpJpy UsdCad UsdJpy
33 pips 51 pips 83 pips 16 pips 38 pips 6pm-10pm
30 pips 40 pips 66 pips 15 pips 29 pips 10pm-2am
69 pips 55 pips 97 pips 31 pips 38 pips 2am-6am
65 pips 52 pips 95 pips 42 pips 44 pips 6am-10am
52 pips 46 pips 77 pips 35 pips 40 pips 10am-2pm
27 pip 30 pips 51 pips 21 pips 23 pips 2pm-6pm

#82
May 24, 2007 12:49am May 24, 2007 12:49am

goodthings
Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Trader | 1,852 Posts

Eurjpy broken weekly low again news coming out

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#83
May 24, 2007 12:51am May 24, 2007 12:51am

goodthings
Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Trader | 1,852 Posts

gbpjpy wanting to break out bottom side. News coming out

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#84
May 24, 2007 12:55am May 24, 2007 12:55am

goodthings
Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Trader | 1,852 Posts

GbpUsd

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#85
May 24, 2007 2:02am May 24, 2007 2:02am

goodthings
Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Trader | 1,852 Posts

The red numbers s1 s2 s3

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#86
May 24, 2007 2:39am May 24, 2007 2:39am

goodthings
Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Trader | 1,852 Posts

Short at 163.15. Daily average range (DAR) is 115 pips bottom side DAR is 162.51. It moves 80 pips are 70% of the time since Jan 1 2006 which is 162.87 moves 90 pips 62% of the time which is 162.77. Set target at 162.82.

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#87
May 25, 2007 4:59pm May 25, 2007 4:59pm

goodthings
Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Trader | 1,852 Posts

The daily average range (DAR) for EurJpy in 2007 116 (the blue line) the pink lines show the (DAR) for the last 20 days

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#88
May 25, 2007 5:07pm May 25, 2007 5:07pm

goodthings
Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Trader | 1,852 Posts

DAR for EurJpy

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#89
May 25, 2007 5:18pm May 25, 2007 5:18pm

Bemac
Joined Jan 2006 | Status: Monarch o' the Glen | 5,561 Posts

Quoting goodthings

Disliked

The daily average range (DAR) for EurJpy in 2007 116 (the blue line) the pink lines show the (DAR) for the last 20 days

Ignored

So...
If you are thinking of Trading based on this Info. perhaps it would be wise to have a dynamic {constantly} measuring the MDR {Median Daily Range}

eg.
Entry @ Break of 23% of MDR.
Exit @ 76-100% {Users' choice} of MDR
Just a thought...

#90
May 25, 2007 5:38pm May 25, 2007 5:38pm

goodthings
Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Trader | 1,852 Posts

Quoting Bemac

Disliked

So...
If you are thinking of Trading based on this Info. perhaps it would be wise to have a dynamic {constantly} measuring the MDR {Median Daily Range}

eg.
Entry @ Break of 23% of MDR.
Exit @ 76-100% {Users' choice} of MDR
Just a thought...

Ignored

Yes thanks for bringing that out. I will have to make that more clear. Last year the GbpUsd averaged 134 pips but the median was around 120 pips I normally placed my target with in 100 pip range. Of course amount of pips depended on entry. The chart for EurJpy shows a yearly average of 116 pips but it has only hit that mark or exceeded it 5 of the last 20 days. So based on the past days to set targets on daily basis for it to hit 116 pips would be coming up short.

#91
May 25, 2007 5:53pm May 25, 2007 5:53pm

Bemac
Joined Jan 2006 | Status: Monarch o' the Glen | 5,561 Posts

Quoting goodthings

Disliked

Yes thanks for bringing that out. I will have to make that more clear. Last year the GbpUsd averaged 134 pips but the median was around 120 pips I normally placed my target with in 100 pip range. Of course amount of pips depended on entry. The chart for EurJpy shows a yearly average of 116 pips but it has only hit that mark or exceeded it 5 of the last 20 days. So based on the past days to set targets on daily basis for it to hit 116 pips would be coming up short.

Ignored

So don't measure it over the last year. Measure it over the last month.

#92
May 25, 2007 6:03pm May 25, 2007 6:03pm

goodthings
Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Trader | 1,852 Posts

Quoting Bemac

Disliked

So don't measure it over the last year. Measure it over the last month.

Ignored

Last month is more relevant but knowing the yearly seems to help determine if the market is moving normal (I know what's normal) or it's (DAR) is up or down. This chart really might even be more helpful

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#93
May 27, 2007 7:02am May 27, 2007 7:02am

goodthings
Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Trader | 1,852 Posts

GbpJpy

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#94
May 27, 2007 7:04am May 27, 2007 7:04am

goodthings
Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Trader | 1,852 Posts

GbpJpy

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#95
May 27, 2007 7:12am May 27, 2007 7:12am

goodthings
Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Trader | 1,852 Posts

The blue line shows the daily range of motion for the GbpJpy the last 20 days the pink line is the (DAR) for the year. It has only hit the year DAR 3 times in the past 20 days. The range of motion has been very limited of late compared to the first part of the year. In this daily average it includes a 6 day correction starting Feb. 23 of 1704 pips. So the latter data beyond Feb23 more accurately gauges the GbpJpy range of motion.

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