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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #13,761
  • May 26, 2007 12:25pm May 26, 2007 12:25pm
Quoting Takisd
Lets not all be smart alecs about trend. We all know that a monthly chart trend takes yonks to change. You need to be realistic and look at daily/4h for the "trend" which is now, not future or past..

Thus G/u is in a down trend. And has not broken out of it. I would be surprised if we go up any further than the last 3 days high.

I have to say I mostly agree, the trend I define as the trend is the one prevailing currently. Example is we are in a down trend until it breaks the 4h down trend. Yes we may still be in the long term trend and this is just a correction, but at the moment it is down until proven otherwise. However, I could definitely see the opposite being thought, we are in a long term trend until proven otherwise.

That being said, we are hanging on the edge of it breaking the 4h trend, so it's looking more like a correction of the longer term then a continuation of the down trend. Although fundies will be the judge of that most likely.
  • #13,762
  • May 26, 2007 5:56pm May 26, 2007 5:56pm
The trend is determined by the timeframe you are trading, but if you don't specify which timeframe you are trading - then how do we know which trend you are talking about.

And the classic way to determine the trend is by first looking at the next higher timeframe. So if you are watching a daily chart (or as you furiners like to say D1 ) then the weekly chart determines the trend. If you are watching the 4H then the daily determines the trend and so on.

Just my 2 euro's. As always, opinions may vary.
  • #13,763
  • May 26, 2007 8:52pm May 26, 2007 8:52pm
years ago, i thouth if monthly or weekly trends were up, even the daily or hourly were down, that was still up trend in daily or hourly and it cost me a lot of pips for so-called correction.

now I do think, a down is downtrend and an up is an uptrend because even if a correction can become a down trend, only names are different.

when it is down, it is downtren, when it is up, it is uptrend, when it is in sideway, no trend. i let thing simple. that is just for me.
  • #13,764
  • May 26, 2007 10:23pm May 26, 2007 10:23pm
If you go all the way back to the beginning of the highest price of any pair, and scale it into a trend, you would find that we could just well be in a longer long long term downtrned, and this up is a correction.


The point is, we are not trading for the next 8 months, we are trading for the next few days. Unless buffett posts on FF, in that case, I must apologise.
  • #13,765
  • May 26, 2007 10:57pm May 26, 2007 10:57pm
I don't when it'll go up but watch out for a bull flag in Cable.

http://img80.imageshack.us/img80/6366/bullflag1pm8.gif
http://img80.imageshack.us/img80/738...262007bew2.gif
  • #13,766
  • May 26, 2007 11:44pm May 26, 2007 11:44pm
Good chart, sometime it works for the bull flag, some time now. i can get a lot of failed flag.
  • #13,767
  • May 26, 2007 11:57pm May 26, 2007 11:57pm
flags are not v. strong patterns. Any flag usually means that investors are waiting for a reason to short or long. Thus far, I do not support the bullflag on g/u. As the 4hour is showing a stronger pattern towards the downside, which is of higher quality.
  • #13,768
  • May 27, 2007 5:11am May 27, 2007 5:11am
I hope I have got the fibs up the right way!

To me it seems, the last major up channel move eventually retraced back to almost the 50 fib and this down channel move has already retraced back up to it's related 50 fib. The down channel pattern is definitely a bull flag which is a short term continuation indicator, which I am led to believe is a brief pause or resting period usually preceded by a steep price move (yes). After the consolidation period the uptrend continues on its way.

Assuming I have drawn the fib retracement correctly, I think I'll go long, initially targetting the 61.8 fib.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #13,769
  • Edited 6:27am May 27, 2007 5:16am | Edited 6:27am
The hourly chart also shows a bullish pennant as does the 4 hour chart (not shown).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #13,770
  • May 27, 2007 8:26am May 27, 2007 8:26am
http://forexfactory.com/attachment.p...1&d=1180272285
...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #13,771
  • May 27, 2007 9:18am May 27, 2007 9:18am
Quoting goonergonebad
I hope I have got the fibs up the right way!

To me it seems, the last major up channel move eventually retraced back to almost the 50 fib and this down channel move has already retraced back up to it's related 50 fib. The down channel pattern is definitely a bull flag which is a short term continuation indicator, which I am led to believe is a brief pause or resting period usually preceded by a steep price move (yes). After the consolidation period the uptrend continues on its way.

Assuming I have drawn the fib retracement correctly, I think I'll go long, initially targetting the 61.8 fib.

Well when you draw fib retracement the 50% is always in the right spot no matter what. But the longer term fib ret should be drawn reversed - lower %'s above and higher %'s below. Shorter term is correct.

Meanwhile yes it is a bull flag but I would watch for a clean breakout of down channel before doing anything.
  • #13,772
  • May 27, 2007 10:46am May 27, 2007 10:46am
For what its worth I am holding 2 short positions on cable between 9880 and 9860. Fridays price action suggesting a reluctance to break above 9900.
Ideal reatracement to 9790 early part of next week to complete the inverted head and shoulders, eventual target being 2.0064.
Thats the plan anyway.

Good luck all!
  • #13,773
  • May 27, 2007 11:59am May 27, 2007 11:59am
Quoting goonergonebad
I hope I have got the fibs up the right way!

Assuming I have drawn the fib retracement correctly, I think I'll go long, initially targetting the 61.8 fib.

The retracement should always start with 0% and work it's way to 23%, 36% etc.. On one of the threads it stated 23% bring hit about 80% of the time on a retrace and the 36% in the low 70% range. Although that varies by currency.


Quoting SunTrader
Meanwhile yes it is a bull flag but I would watch for a clean breakout of down channel before doing anything.
I would agree wait for a clear signal just because the pattern is there doesn't mean it will play out. It's like any other indicator, it gives you an idea of where and when to watch for a break out or price action.
  • #13,774
  • May 27, 2007 3:17pm May 27, 2007 3:17pm
i say pick up top is the right option..., i might be wrong ....ok. my "contribution"...when trading French elections euro went down,...French national bank went up (it was the other way arround : )....Now its Scotich PM (still not formal) getting the power, (its quite difficult political atmosfere,...the nationalist won the elections, but they must promise they will not make Scotland an independent country to get others in coalition, that means the other can form a minority governement which ofcourse wouldnt happen, so PM will be Gordon...tricky ha?)....well i did BET Scotish national bank will go up, (the main reversion happened on friday...i suppose) so i say pound will loose ground,...not to mention again that futures are being expired, both,...the euro and cable in june,...but...i may be wrong...and Scotland can be independent even earlier,...whats going up with dolar(friend involved in hdging told me 2 buy it for 2 weeks),..u know what just turn the cnn on and u will see all u need 2. Now its Russia, russia, russia, like china, china, china a half year ago, and putin is one big comunist swine...lol...add Ukraine crisis, lebanon, and israely war 1967 1 more time in the news...etc...
p.s. trade what u think, not what u read on forums....or u might loose, because someone wont be trading with SL,...
its just money
  • #13,775
  • May 27, 2007 3:53pm May 27, 2007 3:53pm
Retracement to almost the 50 fib from up trend begining March 5 to April 18 high
Attached Image
  • #13,776
  • May 27, 2007 3:56pm May 27, 2007 3:56pm
part of that same March 5 to April 18 uptrend showing Price action on the 4hr chart above the trend line
Attached Image
  • #13,777
  • May 27, 2007 4:08pm May 27, 2007 4:08pm
240 min chart
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  • #13,778
  • May 27, 2007 7:23pm May 27, 2007 7:23pm
Quoting Igrok
240 min chart
I have been intrigued by the stuff you have been posting about diamonds. Although I saw the interaction between you and another about what is a diamond and what isn't. You seemed to imply there's a certain criteria that needs to be met for it to be a diamond not a rhombus or a parallelogram. I kind of understood that there's needs to be a symmetry for it to qualify as a diamond...not a couple of triangles glued together...heh. Anyhoo, that last diamond you posted doesn't look that good. It's a bit off kilter. So since my assumptions about what an actual diamond pattern is haven't been verified I'd like to ask you what your criteria you feel needs to be met for a pattern to be considered a diamond and not something else. Also if two of the sides of thew diamond are about the same length how do you determine which is the 'long side' which I saw you speak of that signals which direction you think the price will breakout in?

I eagerly and humbly await your reply. Just so you can understand about what I am and where I'm at as far as trading, I'm not a newbie. I've been trading both demo and live for over 5 years and live for about 3. I'm successful as a trader but am not so ignorant as to believe that I can't learn and continually strive to learn new things. So I hope you can understand my interest in your thoughts on this chart pattern.

Thanks in advance for any info you care to share.
  • #13,779
  • May 27, 2007 7:32pm May 27, 2007 7:32pm
after a while u can start seeing the tooth fairy... lol
  • #13,780
  • May 27, 2007 8:41pm May 27, 2007 8:41pm
Quoting Pipsta
I have been intrigued by the stuff you have been posting about diamonds. Although I saw the interaction between you and another about what is a diamond and what isn't. You seemed to imply there's a certain criteria that needs to be met for it to be a diamond not a rhombus or a parallelogram. I kind of understood that there's needs to be a symmetry for it to qualify as a diamond...not a couple of triangles glued together...heh. Anyhoo, that last diamond you posted doesn't look that good. It's a bit off kilter. So since my assumptions about what an actual diamond pattern is haven't been verified I'd like to ask you what your criteria you feel needs to be met for a pattern to be considered a diamond and not something else. Also if two of the sides of thew diamond are about the same length how do you determine which is the 'long side' which I saw you speak of that signals which direction you think the price will breakout in?

I eagerly and humbly await your reply. Just so you can understand about what I am and where I'm at as far as trading, I'm not a newbie. I've been trading both demo and live for over 5 years and live for about 3. I'm successful as a trader but am not so ignorant as to believe that I can't learn and continually strive to learn new things. So I hope you can understand my interest in your thoughts on this chart pattern.

Thanks in advance for any info you care to share.
This pattern is not a diamond yet. It just might become one. There are several different types of diamonds and each has his own criteria for identification and projection. I can't put all this info into one post as it has to be explained, illustrated and will take more than a dozen pages to discuss all the issues, rules, possible scenarios and so on. This whole diamond analysis theory is not as simple as it might look like.
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