Attachments: Cable Update (GBPUSD)

Cable Update (GBPUSD)

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#761,001
Jul 25, 2023 12:39pm Jul 25, 2023 12:39pm

dantpm
Joined Aug 2022 | Status: Trader | 4,859 Posts

Quoting TheWraith

Disliked

{quote} You're suggesting that USD won't appreciate against Pound anymore because they don't have the tools for the war with China so will avoid one leading to more stable times or? Okay, that sounds reasonable. However, the part with recession doesn't agree with that statement. We know that USD, JPY and CHF tend to do great in crisis. Especially in this one where you have inflation around or below 3% in all US, Switzerland and Japan and others around 5% or more. I don't think anyone will prefer Pound over Dollar and we know from the past Pound...

Ignored

The detail you are missing is that the US is trying to devalue the US$. They want to devalue the US$ to promote US exports which results in US tax income to fund their war efforts and forgo having to raise taxes or push on more debt increases. Its a 'last ditch effort'. All the other countries Central Banks are supporting it because it means that the other countries will be able to duck out on their war effort contributions.
Right now the US can't keep up with China and Russia when it comes to munitions manufacturing. China, Russia and most of the world outside of the US and Europe doesn't have the debt level that the US has. The US has dug themselves into a hole that they are just realizing. The way to get out of the hole is to raise taxes and they refuse to do that.

#761,002
Jul 25, 2023 12:42pm Jul 25, 2023 12:42pm

TheWraith
Joined Jun 2023 | Status: Net Free | 1,970 Posts

Quoting Whale

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{quote} watch on daily 1.2964-1.302X for me it hard to short before this area hit.

Ignored

If you're correct then expect the London to push the price down tommorow before the Fed and on Fed it will go up to your mentioned prices. From there however I'll be looking to Short to 1.26. We have ECB on Thursday and fall in EUR/USD will result in the fall IN GBP/USD. So, we should expect the price going down tommorow before the Fed!

#761,003
Edited 1:22pm Jul 25, 2023 12:43pm | Edited 1:22pm

Fardeen1209
Temporarily Suspended | Joined Jul 2021 | 3,677 Posts

Quoting TheWraith

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{quote} It's interesting to me that you're feeling this way. I have no indication that Fed will skip this time. Perhaps there will be no hike next time, but this one should be 1/1 in my opinion. I don't think Fed wants to play around with their policy, because they will destroy their credibility (or what is left from it) very quickly and then God knows what would happen to the markets.

Ignored

I agree too.
But with headline CPI been falling significantly, 3.0%
we have Cleveland > headline - Meaning the next CPI release in AUG (for July) can come out hotter than expected.
They can keep that 25bps tomorrow for the NExt FOMC.
June Dot Plot Economic Projection- was 5.6% terminal rate for 2023
Tomorrow hike will put us to 5.5%

Just a thought, could be wrong on the fundamental view, but technical view will be independent of the Fundamental

More time in the market, does not mean you trade better!

#761,004
Jul 25, 2023 12:45pm Jul 25, 2023 12:45pm

charlienoble
Joined Dec 2020 | Status: Trader | 557 Posts

Quoting dantpm

Disliked

{quote} I doubt it. The US already figured out it can't afford to go to war with China right at this time since they used up all of their munitions on Ukraine and they can't give guarantees to manufacturers that would allow them to ramp up production for short periods of time.

Ignored

If China's navy could actually get to the US this might be a consideration. They can't and it isn't. China isn't a superpower no matter how much they wish they were. We are just kicking the can down the road until we build out the manufacturing we need. It isn't de risking. It is decoupling on our schedule.

#761,005
Jul 25, 2023 12:48pm Jul 25, 2023 12:48pm

dantpm
Joined Aug 2022 | Status: Trader | 4,859 Posts

Quoting charlienoble

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{quote} If China's navy could actually get to the US this might be a consideration. They can't and it isn't. China isn't a superpower no matter how much they wish they were. We are just kicking the can down the road until we build out the manufacturing we need. It isn't de risking. It is decoupling on our schedule.

Ignored

I don't believe that China wants to attack the US. They are only interested in Taiwan and the south China Sea. In that part of the world they are a Superpower.

#761,006
Jul 25, 2023 12:51pm Jul 25, 2023 12:51pm

charlienoble
Joined Dec 2020 | Status: Trader | 557 Posts

Quoting dantpm

Disliked

{quote} I don't believe that China wants to attack the US. They are only interested in Taiwan and the south China Sea. In that part of the world they are a Superpower.

Ignored

They can get about 1000 miles offshore in force. That's what they have. China was a myth supported by the US. We don't want to support them anymore. China is circling the drain. No way back from the demographics problem they have and it isn't the only country killer they face. They had a moment in time thanks to the US and it is now done.

And China doesn't want a war with the US because we would kill them. They know this. So does every other country on the planet whether they want to admit it or not.

#761,007
Jul 25, 2023 12:55pm Jul 25, 2023 12:55pm

T721
Joined Oct 2020 | Status: couldn't give a flying duck | 7,372 Posts

Quoting T721

Disliked

Just posting this incase anyone followed me & Joilita. Long Long ways to go but she trying . And like Joilita said this pair is a Snail Any newbies watching, this is a good pair to practice on, Also AUD/CAD {image} {image}

Ignored

EG UPDATE --- Just hit 1st LQ Zone

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#761,008
Jul 25, 2023 1:07pm Jul 25, 2023 1:07pm

TheWraith
Joined Jun 2023 | Status: Net Free | 1,970 Posts

Quoting TheWraith

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{quote} TP @ 1.288 End of Hourly Zone!

Ignored

TP!!

Or it would have been had I stayed Long hahah...
Exactly hit the end of Hourly Zone. Boring PA made me close the trade unfortunately.

Lesson: when you open the trade and have put SL and TP, then destroy the laptop so you can't close the trade or let your supervisory supervisor supervise the trade (your dog or cat).

#761,009
Jul 25, 2023 1:09pm Jul 25, 2023 1:09pm