Cable Update (GBPUSD)

S1 is 2786
Also I am watchful of 2810...

The price did strange thing today... dip low first.

ok, good luck

trying to get into macroeconomics. does anyonehave any input to help me understand this?

I believe you think that Asia bought for London to sell?

yes.

Also, Asia low is near round number 2809.

For the price to form bear candle. the price needs to break 2809.

It may be possible to break... but shorting after break of 2809 is preferable for 2786

My analysis based on H4
Max Up Retracement is 2860 then down...
if break up then target is 2920 - 3030
On daily..i can see Bear Target 2600 lower bands..
Cmiiw

if price will fall below 1.2819 i will be surprised.
but we are in a short term downtrend and i know it could be.

holding the gain in this position, might sell later if GBP moves up higher at London time.

If not, doubling down at 27507 for the much awaited uptick.

it could break the line and move downwards! who knows!

Banks Bid, Bonds & Bitcoin Battered As Stagflation Scare Soars | ZeroHedge

The U.S. net international investment position (NIIP)

The NIIP is a complex concept, but it is an important measure of the country's economic health.
End of 2022 data shows that the NIIP was –$16.12 trillion. (minus).
Means : that the United States had $16.12 trillion more in liabilities to foreigners than assets abroad.

Its important measure of the country's economic health.
A negative NIIP can be a sign of financial problems, as always and seems like forever ever since Alan Green Spank era.


How /What the use of NIIP data can be used in forex trading ?

If a country has a negative NIIP, ( in this case USA) are likely to experience currency depreciation. (buy GBP.....joking...)
The oppossite NIPP aplly.

If a country has a negative NIIP (in this case USA, again), it means that it is borrowing more money from foreigners than it is lending to foreigners.
greater capital outflows, as foreigners may be more likely to withdraw their money from the country if they believe that the country's economy is going to weaken.
(buy EUr... joking again.)

If a country has a positive NIIP (yes, you guess right ... China), it means that it is lending more money to foreigners than it is borrowing from foreigners.
This could lead to capital inflows, as foreigners may be more likely to invest in the country if they believe that the country's economy is going to strengthen.

NOTE : NIIP is just one factor that you should consider when making forex trading decisions. No need to use eit. Just focus on Interest rates and other weekly, montly data which is more juicy.

BTW, what makes you look at this NIPP ?.... Wondering.......

What I was afraid of is happening.

Hourly Confirmed Long
H4 is right on the Resistance (Gray Line)
Daily is boucing off of S3 (Blue Line)

Looking for Long!

SHORT GOLD 72 PIPS

GBP/USD

Buy Limit @ 1.28280
SL @ 1.27880

Changed to 1.28285
SL changed to 1.27885

Went Long on another position @ 1.28336 just in case price doesn't run.
SL 6 pips.

closing all! Nice morning, cheers to KareemAliFx! He gave me this signal and I maked money! Cheers

And then we continue/..........


As I was saying in previous post, the FF Calender on hight impact news is good enough for you to make sound fundamental judgment as most FF members are day trader adn scalper.
Unless you are position trader for investemnt Banks ( like CB or Hedge Fund Manager), those complex data (NIPP) may be applicable.

Lets go to REAL TIME/ Live Example. ( Not hindsight like some fake guru post in here)

Australian CPI is due to be released tomorrow.
This is a very important release for the AUD currency, as it is a key indicator of inflation in Australia.
As I came from the future (pun intended), I like look up coming news thru the weekly news publish in FF.

A higher-than-expected CPI reading would likely put downward pressure on the AUD, as it would signal that RBA may need to raise interest rates more aggressively in order to combat inflation.
On the other hand, a lower-than-expected CPI reading could boost the AUD, as it would suggest that the RBA may not need to raise rates as much.

Technically price is sitting at support and wanting to fill the FVG. This set up is the most simplest set up you can find, anything simpler is impossible.
The edge for taking this trade was based on Fundamantal and Technical. (both have thier own weight considerations)
CPI expected to be lower, and Fund manager start to poistion themselve to sell AUD, at premium ( YES, PREMIUM.... where is premium ?. FVG ?)

AU
REAL Time/ Live Chart below



Overall, the release of the CPI tomrow is a major event for the AUD currency.
Raiaders will be closely watching the release, and any significant deviation from the market consensus (aka projection) could have a big impact on the AUD's value.

Market Maker start to push price higher today to get buyer getting trapped for tomorrow CPI data repelaese.
Then withinn 12 hours later we got FOMC, that still will rock AUD/USD.
We can discuss abouttFOMC in different posting.
Suffice for this post, we are looking at AUS CPI data release tomorrow, and but Makret Maker already start positioning them self for both CPI & FOMC data repelase tomorrow.

I think , I want to write a book.... (forget about typos, I'm om speed typing)

Please consider others too, like me.
You cannot take all the money and leave us with crumps..........

A key part of what Pat is explaining is how price reacts in advance of the news and after the news and how these reactions consider the actual news. Typically the key reactions are by various Central Banks.

These Central banks place open orders.

For spot and trend trading you have to follow how the MM's are reacting and/or are expected to react. MM's react to actual open orders and how price can be moved profitably. There are concepts and expected reactions that drive price movements. Actual price does not have to follow any rules other than move from existing actual orders that MM's can profitably trade. This is why FOREX trading is a blend of art and science.