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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #13,681
  • May 25, 2007 7:36am May 25, 2007 7:36am
looks like no trade for me today.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #13,682
  • May 25, 2007 7:37am May 25, 2007 7:37am
Cable in the 1.98 level is kicked by the 70's and received a bounce by the 30's, so it is now homeless, what a pitty
  • #13,683
  • May 25, 2007 7:38am May 25, 2007 7:38am
Closed my long. I think this is the last of the bulls at least until 9800 is shown. Then perhaps a little blip
  • #13,684
  • May 25, 2007 7:44am May 25, 2007 7:44am
Muted response considering worse housing numbers than was expected. I would have thought it would have been more bullish (could still be bullish I maybe jumping the gun here 45 mins after event)

Theories why?

The market new before hand that housing was bad
Comments by Bernanke said housing will be bad but will have limited effect on markets
Alot of analysts believe this could be a bottom in housing
Yesterdays new housing sales was much better than expected.

Not just cable where this data hasnt had a big impact USD/CHF, USD/JPY GBP/JPY havent seen decent moves 'yet'.

Anyone else got a view on this housing data?
  • #13,685
  • May 25, 2007 7:46am May 25, 2007 7:46am
Quoting pino2
Who can believe that Cable was playing in a 60 pips range yesterday and today playing in a 47 pips range, this is abnormal, this pair must be kicked out from the major pairs list
Yeah - it's driving us all mad - but after the calm comes the storm..........and probably when we're least expecting it!
I've got my pips - go get yours!
  • #13,686
  • May 25, 2007 7:50am May 25, 2007 7:50am
Quoting pino2
And who can believe that Cable was playing this week in a 128 pips range, this is absolutely abnormal, it never happened
I completely agree!!!! What the hell happened to our beloved cable?????
  • #13,687
  • May 25, 2007 7:52am May 25, 2007 7:52am
Quoting camisa
I completely agree!!!! What the hell happened to our beloved cable?????
i'm starting to think about trading it less myself. lately, cable has been a dud.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #13,688
  • May 25, 2007 7:55am May 25, 2007 7:55am
Quoting Takisd
Closed my long. I think this is the last of the bulls at least until 9800 is shown. Then perhaps a little blip
i'm thinking about placing a limit long @ 9880 again. maybe a little above. 9800 is not out of the picture yet though. just maybe not today.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #13,689
  • May 25, 2007 7:56am May 25, 2007 7:56am
Quoting bravado
i'm starting to think about trading it less myself. lately, cable has been a dud.
problem is my method is fine tuned for cable so I will stick to it for as long as I can, but I think BackTestDummy is right: times of high volatility suceed to times of low volatility, so if that is indeed true I guess cable will have some hectic months to come!
  • #13,690
  • May 25, 2007 7:57am May 25, 2007 7:57am
But at least I predicted yesterday that we will see the 1.9878 today, and it was the high of the day as I predicted
  • #13,691
  • May 25, 2007 7:58am May 25, 2007 7:58am
guys calm down! its a friday and a holiday weekend, the market will be here next week dont worry, ;-) remember lack of volitility and consolidation lead to a strong breakout be patient and wait, its the nature of the game, cable might be low volitility now but who knows what can happen, remember anything is possible and next week is NFP stick to your strat dont take trades unless it falles within ur parameters, and dont expect price to do anything if your looking for wish fulfillment and stability you wont find it trading the markets learn that and accept it. Jesse Livermore one of the worlds greatest stock traders of all time made and lost vast sums of money MANY times, and still used probability and stuck to his game, he knew he had an edge that was reapeatable regardless of what the market did, he lost when he broke his rules and listens to other people, and didnt exercise patience...

just some thought to cap off the week.

Thanks
  • #13,692
  • May 25, 2007 8:05am May 25, 2007 8:05am
Even in the last NFP, cable didn't move that much, it made a small move
  • #13,693
  • May 25, 2007 8:09am May 25, 2007 8:09am
Quoting el_duende
Muted response considering worse housing numbers than was expected. I would have thought it would have been more bullish (could still be bullish I maybe jumping the gun here 45 mins after event)

Theories why?

The market new before hand that housing was bad
Comments by Bernanke said housing will be bad but will have limited effect on markets
Alot of analysts believe this could be a bottom in housing
Yesterdays new housing sales was much better than expected.

Not just cable where this data hasnt had a big impact USD/CHF, USD/JPY GBP/JPY havent seen decent moves 'yet'.

Anyone else got a view on this housing data?
I agree. A 30 pip bull move on the back of a poor housing figure does suggest a bear move is not far away. Given the 20 pip retrace I think your short may be safe.

JM2C
  • #13,694
  • May 25, 2007 8:09am May 25, 2007 8:09am
Quoting Cosmo II
Buy @ 1.9841 for a first target of 1.9865 SL 1.9834
Thats it for me today....lets hope for better trading next week.
  • #13,695
  • May 25, 2007 8:14am May 25, 2007 8:14am
thats ok with me the market isnt always in trend mode, ranges and consolidation can last quite a bit sometimes, when you least expect it it will explode, patience is rewarded in this game. Right now the beast is resting building up energy for its next move, ;-) all instruments behave this way no matter which pair u trade that pair wil never always put in a large swing move, u have to adapt to market reality and accept what the market gives u and move on, actually cable made a nice run up on 5/23 you dont have to make 100s of pips every week, its not a realistic expection of market reality.

Remember also if I was trading 100 lots a 20 pip move would earn me 20000 dollars so even if the market only moved 20 pips in 1 week and i only executed 1 trade if i was a larger size traders id be quite happy of course id have to very strictly control my risk and not allow price to move hard against me. id have to cut my losses more quicky depending on my account size. but even a 20 pip gain, within the range would be more than most people make in a year... just shows the potential trading really has...
  • #13,696
  • May 25, 2007 8:16am May 25, 2007 8:16am
I smell end to G/us reign of terror (the last spike up)..

Looking at the chart i stated I liked. I would expect a move similar, but not the same. Not that big.

9640 then a decision needs to be made, whether they will try 9600 or wat. But I do not see 2.000 again this year for some reason.... Perhaps I should call a psychic.
  • #13,697
  • May 25, 2007 8:22am May 25, 2007 8:22am
enoc2g:

the problem is not that cable is in range mode, as you say it will always alternate between range and trend mode

the problem is that even in range mode cable would move at least 100 pips a day in the past

now we've seen consecutive days with daily ranges of around 60 pips!!!! I have never seen cable like this since September 04 when I started trading it...
  • #13,698
  • May 25, 2007 8:32am May 25, 2007 8:32am
well times change,,, lol
  • #13,699
  • May 25, 2007 8:34am May 25, 2007 8:34am
I'm now long at 1.9843 TP 1.9844 SL 1.9842 but I'm a little bit afraid from any volatility to fall and reach my stoploss
  • #13,700
  • May 25, 2007 8:36am May 25, 2007 8:36am
ur target profit is 1 pip away?
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