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  • #760,261
  • Jul 22, 2023 2:05am Jul 22, 2023 2:05am
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} Yes I think we've all had a good week this week and eveey week because the 5% of traders that actually make it in forex is on this thread...LOL
LoL .

I actually just went over the last 20 pages of this forum.

Trades: 5%
Forecasts: 5%
Not related to trading: 90%
  • #760,262
  • Jul 22, 2023 2:20am Jul 22, 2023 2:20am
Quoting TheWraith
{quote} LoL . I actually just went over the last 20 pages of this forum. Trades: 5% Forecasts: 5% Not related to trading: 90%

All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy?
You have an IQ lower than 90 if you interact with this user.
  • #760,263
  • Jul 22, 2023 2:25am Jul 22, 2023 2:25am
Quoting TheWraith
What have I only now really realized after some time trading FX? Trend is your friend, follow the trend and never go against it. Did you hear the word never? Never! Problem with almost all of us here is: 1. we are trying to catch the moves up and the moves down, we try to catch everything instead of just identifying the trend and wait for trend to continue and disregard the moves that go against the trend 2. we don't know when price will start trending and so we lose most of the money in Range 3. we don't know when trend is about to end which will...
Brilliant post highlighting the importance of trend here and some other good points too.

As for your first solution I agree somewhat. I look at two timeframes to identify trend based on market structure the 1h and 1D. However, from now own, I will only ever enter trends based on the 1H. If the 1H aligns with the 1D then I will be more open to leaving trades open and adding to winning positions.

As for solution two when using market structure it can be obvious when a range is about to develop. Say trend is long and price retraces to the previous LL, this is a valid long entry so you take it. Price only reaches the previous high before reversing, you should make some money from this trade or at least break even. Now you should trade with caution until the high is broken. In a range I will only take trades in the direction of the previous trend so at the bottom of the range in this case.

Regarding trend changing. Using bullish trend as an example I currently wait for the previous low to be broken before considering trades in the opposite direction. However I’m changing this to there must also then be lower high. Trends can go on longer than expected so this extra confirmation should help.

A last point I want to make on avoiding choppy conditions. My primary way of doing this is looking at the two previous daily candles. Firstly they must both be bullish or bearish (depending on if you are long or short). For bullish, the previous day high and low should be higher than the 2 day previous high and low. The candle bodies should also be relatively large in comparison to the wicks although this is discretionary and in my opinion less important than the previous point.

Im not attempting to teach with this post as after all I’m still a newbie with no solid long term track record, just trying to promote healthy discussion on the weekend as I can’t trade

Scott
  • #760,264
  • Jul 22, 2023 2:37am Jul 22, 2023 2:37am
Quoting Fx3423454
{quote} Euro To Dollar 2023 Forecast: 1.08 In Next 3 Months Say Rabobank (exchangerates.org.uk)
Jane Foley - a strategist I rate
Look ahead, Macro=Direction, Levels & Structure = Entry
  • #760,265
  • Jul 22, 2023 2:37am Jul 22, 2023 2:37am
Quoting Scotteyy
{quote} Brilliant post highlighting the importance of trend here and some other good points too. As for your first solution I agree somewhat. I look at two timeframes to identify trend based on market structure the 1h and 1D. However, from now own, I will only ever enter trends based on the 1H. If the 1H aligns with the 1D then I will be more open to leaving trades open and adding to winning positions. As for solution two when using market structure it can be obvious when a range is about to develop. Say trend is long and price retraces to the previous...
Amazing post Scotteyy. You have explained very well what I didn't really in my post. You just provided a very clear guide on how to identify when trend is over and when Range might start. Excellent post man!
  • #760,266
  • Jul 22, 2023 2:39am Jul 22, 2023 2:39am
Quoting Scotteyy
{quote} Brilliant post highlighting the importance of trend here and some other good points too. As for your first solution I agree somewhat. I look at two timeframes to identify trend based on market structure the 1h and 1D. However, from now own, I will only ever enter trends based on the 1H. If the 1H aligns with the 1D then I will be more open to leaving trades open and adding to winning positions. As for solution two when using market structure it can be obvious when a range is about to develop. Say trend is long and price retraces to the previous...
there are so many strategies and many solutions.
it is always up to the individual to decide what he can benefit from.
professional discussions always promote development.
  • #760,267
  • Edited 3:18am Jul 22, 2023 2:41am | Edited 3:18am
Quoting TheWraith
What have I only now really realized after some time trading FX? Trend is your friend, follow the trend and never go against it. Did you hear the word never? Never! Problem with almost all of us here is: 1. we are trying to catch the moves up and the moves down, we try to catch everything instead of just identifying the trend and wait for trend to continue and disregard the moves that go against the trend 2. we don't know when price will start trending and so we lose most of the money in Range 3. we don't know when trend is about to end which will...
Actually, I earned profits this week by going against the trend of GBD, EUR, and XAU... Specially GBP...

Though I also used the trend to decide that I should already take profit.
^_^

It all depends on the system one employs, maybe. Or I may have been in-luck calling the top this time. I trade using the daily and weekly, mostly, by the way.
"No trade is still a trade." - Peter Borish
  • #760,268
  • Jul 22, 2023 2:45am Jul 22, 2023 2:45am
Quoting donfriday
Failure to reach 1.2750 by next week tuesday i will be looking for long to 1.3025 {image}
why tuesday?
  • #760,269
  • Jul 22, 2023 2:56am Jul 22, 2023 2:56am
Quoting TheWraith
What have I only now really realized after some time trading FX? Trend is your friend, follow the trend and never go against it. Did you hear the word never? Never! Problem with almost all of us here is: 1. we are trying to catch the moves up and the moves down, we try to catch everything instead of just identifying the trend and wait for trend to continue and disregard the moves that go against the trend 2. we don't know when price will start trending and so we lose most of the money in Range 3. we don't know when trend is about to end which will...
one should pick one TF and go with it and not pay attention to other TF's in my opinion.
Good luck with that. When you get into your automobile, always don your blinders and head stabilizer with it locked in the forward position. Thus is to insure that you will not be distracted by anything that is to the left, right, or rear, be it pedestrians, huge trucks, other automobiles, animals, whatever. Don't be concerned when you crash into something/someone or something/someone crashes into you, because it's just part of the system that you have to adjust to.
We have to be able to know when Range is about to kick in.
If that were possible, there would be tremendous winners, resulting in collapse of such a system. Consider simply WAITING until you SEE that price is in a range on a given TF.
If trader can answer all of these questions then he will be highly profitable. This is that key to trading FX that everyone is looking for.
But of course, 1 or more of those questions are answered only via knowledge of the future. Hence, unattainable in real-time trading.

Price extremely rarely goes up 300, 400 pips at once.
You have confused price movement with indicator movement, such as a bar's High, Low, Close, etc. movement. Price movement is the path that price takes, with price being agreed on for a deal, which is the "last" price of your incoming price feed (tick). So, collect these tick prices for your favorite instrument and check for consecutive increasing or decreasing tick prices and see how far price actually "goes up (or down) at once".
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #760,270
  • Jul 22, 2023 2:57am Jul 22, 2023 2:57am
Quoting tiborf71
{quote} there are so many strategies and many solutions. it is always up to the individual to decide what he can benefit from. professional discussions always promote development.
This is true, I'm sure there are many traders with success that trade counter to trend but in my view this is essentially playing with fire. I think what made it click for me is that a completely random strategy with set TP and SL over a long period of time will break even. Thus, by trading with trend, you are effectively pushing yourself over this break even barrier, and your entry shouldn't matter as long as your SL is below the previous low. Of course the closer to the previous low the higher R:R trade you will be able to take, making it more profitable and taking on less risk (the important part).

Over the past week I have seen many people taking trades counter to trend with short SL's and taking loss after loss. They do this under the guise of "the long-term trend is bullish". But if you are truly trading based on the long-term trend then your SL should reflect this and be placed below the previous low on the daily, in this case, 1.26. But then you run into the other problem of there has been no confirmation that the long-term retracement is over, not a single green daily candle, not a single high broken on a lower timeframe.

Sure you can make money trading counter to the trend but if every retracement only contains 20-60 pips (and its hard to tell how much this will be) whereas every continuation contains 100 pips (which I believe you can be more sure of this) then why would you bother trying to get the small moves instead of trying to get the big moves?

I'll repeat, there is likely many people that trade counter to trend, but I have had no success with it, only losses. I will avoid it in future.

Thanks for the reply,

Scott
  • #760,271
  • Jul 22, 2023 2:57am Jul 22, 2023 2:57am
Quoting TheWraith
{quote} Amazing post Scotteyy. You have explained very well what I didn't really in my post. You just provided a very clear guide on how to identify when trend is over and when Range might start. Excellent post man!
Thank you, this is what the weekend should be about!
  • #760,272
  • Edited 3:26am Jul 22, 2023 3:09am | Edited 3:26am
Quoting Scotteyy
{quote} Brilliant post highlighting the importance of trend here and some other good points too. As for your first solution I agree somewhat. I look at two timeframes to identify trend based on market structure the 1h and 1D. However, from now own, I will only ever enter trends based on the 1H. If the 1H aligns with the 1D then I will be more open to leaving trades open and adding to winning positions. As for solution two when using market structure it can be obvious when a range is about to develop. Say trend is long and price retraces to the previous...
I will only ever enter trends based on the 1H. If the 1H aligns with the 1D then I will be more open to leaving trades open and adding to winning positions.
So, what do you think is likely to happen when you enter with your 1H aligned with 1D, yet 2H, 4H, and 8H are all AGAINST 1D? But of course, you won't even know they are against because you never look at them. But you'll decide if you can achieve some win rate a bit above 55% and on the average have profit, then you are well on your way and with a bit of tweaking, you will get the win rate and profit factor improved.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #760,273
  • Jul 22, 2023 3:20am Jul 22, 2023 3:20am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} I will only ever enter trends based on the 1H. If the 1H aligns with the 1D then I will be more open to leaving trades open and adding to winning positions. So, what do you think is likely to happen when you enter with your 1H aligned with 1D, yet 2H, 4H, and 8H are all AGAINST 1D? But of course, you won't even know they are against because you never look at them. But you'll decide if you can achieve some win rate a bit above 55% and on the average have profit, then you are well on your way and with a bit of tweaking, you will get the win...
At one point I was looking at the 1H, 4H and 1D but I found this overcomplicated it and just added more levels to consider. By the time I was done with my analysis I had missed my entry so either entered late or didn't trade at all (the latter being the better option). When I say I look at the 1H, I'm looking at the major swings on this timeframe so in this case its likely the 2H 4H align with the 1H and the 8H may align with the 1D or 1H. If not then its also likely that we are either in a range or in choppy conditions which I explained how I determine that and my plan for those periods in the previous post. Typically my trades are 1:3, 1:4 RR so I'm looking for a 30-40% win rate.

In future, it would be great if you could explain your view on the topic as well as providing valid criticism to others. Perhaps this would provide more value to the post, at least for me.

Thanks for the reply, definitely something to consider.

Scott
  • #760,274
  • Jul 22, 2023 3:23am Jul 22, 2023 3:23am
Quoting Scotteyy
{quote} This is true, I'm sure there are many traders with success that trade counter to trend but in my view this is essentially playing with fire. I think what made it click for me is that a completely random strategy with set TP and SL over a long period of time will break even. Thus, by trading with trend, you are effectively pushing yourself over this break even barrier, and your entry shouldn't matter as long as your SL is below the previous low. Of course the closer to the previous low the higher R:R trade you will be able to take, making...
I'm sure there are many traders with success that trade counter to trend but in my view this is essentially playing with fire.
On any given TF, every corrective swing (counter-trend move) is a trend for EVERY TF below it. There simply is no other possibility, because those price bars on the given TF are created from exactly the same incoming price ticks as every other TF. For conventional price bars, there are simply 4 pieces of the tick data extracted (and the rest ignored) and used to draw a bar for a TF.

So this enables a trend following system to be valid no matter which direction the trend is, which TF is selected, and which swing is selected.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #760,275
  • Jul 22, 2023 3:28am Jul 22, 2023 3:28am
Remember there is no right or wrong just different opinions....I am right in saying that aren't I
  • #760,276
  • Jul 22, 2023 3:34am Jul 22, 2023 3:34am
Quoting Scotteyy
{quote} At one point I was looking at the 1H, 4H and 1D but I found this overcomplicated it and just added more levels to consider. By the time I was done with my analysis I had missed my entry so either entered late or didn't trade at all (the latter being the better option). When I say I look at the 1H, I'm looking at the major swings on this timeframe so in this case its likely the 2H 4H align with the 1H and the 8H may align with the 1D or 1H. If not then its also likely that we are either in a range or in choppy conditions which I explained...
you might want to consider linking these TF entries to certain S/R levels.
  • #760,277
  • Jul 22, 2023 3:36am Jul 22, 2023 3:36am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} I'm sure there are many traders with success that trade counter to trend but in my view this is essentially playing with fire. On any given TF, every corrective swing (counter-trend move) is a trend for EVERY TF below it. There simply is no other possibility, because those price bars on the given TF are created from exactly the same incoming price ticks as every other TF. For conventional price bars, there are simply 4 pieces of the tick data extracted (and the rest ignored) and used to draw a bar for a TF. So this enables a trend following...
Correct, maybe the traders I saw trading "counter-trend" were trading on the 1M chart and had a change of structure there so were trending with the trend on their TF but against it on mine. Although I do believe this contradicts your previous point that all 1H, 2H, 4H, 8H and 1D timeframes must align, or possibly that wasn't the point you were making. Again, it's not too clear as you aren't providing your view on the markets.

Scott
  • #760,278
  • Jul 22, 2023 3:37am Jul 22, 2023 3:37am
Quoting tiborf71
{quote} you might want to consider linking these TF entries to certain S/R levels.
Of course, this is what I do. Both S/R levels and pivot levels, a confluence of both is my preferential setup.
  • #760,279
  • Jul 22, 2023 3:38am Jul 22, 2023 3:38am
Quoting Waveskierrob
Remember there is no right or wrong just different opinions....I am right in saying that aren't I
Slow and steady wins the race!
Inserted Video
You have an IQ lower than 90 if you interact with this user.
  • #760,280
  • Jul 22, 2023 3:40am Jul 22, 2023 3:40am
Quoting Scotteyy
{quote} At one point I was looking at the 1H, 4H and 1D but I found this overcomplicated it and just added more levels to consider. By the time I was done with my analysis I had missed my entry so either entered late or didn't trade at all (the latter being the better option). When I say I look at the 1H, I'm looking at the major swings on this timeframe so in this case its likely the 2H 4H align with the 1H and the 8H may align with the 1D or 1H. If not then its also likely that we are either in a range or in choppy conditions which I explained...
When I say I look at the 1H, I'm looking at the major swings on this timeframe so in this case its likely the 2H 4H align with the 1H.
That is naive thinking. I can assure you that deeper analysis will reveal the various alignments that actually occur.

In future, it would be great if you could explain your view on the topic as well as providing valid criticism to others.
I have made numerous posts on several threads regarding my views on multi-TF analysis, trend following, trend trading vs counter-trend, and how a wide variety of indicators can be used to "smooth the view" to reduce the cognitive load when doing technical analysis. I even opened a thread that shows how this is used to anticipate direction and important TFs for a given pair. You can check the thread and decide for yourself if there is any merit to it.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
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