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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #13,621
  • May 24, 2007 6:01pm May 24, 2007 6:01pm
Quoting pino2
No it's not a must except if the prices went to 1.9878 without visiting the lower side, so I'm short @ 1.9878 targeting 1.9812, and if it went to 1.9812 without visiting the upper side so I'm long @ 1.9812 targeting 1.9878, I might be wrong, coz if everytime my predictions came right so I would have been the richest man in the world, so it 's only a prediction, but specially for tomorrow I'm 90% confident that both might been seen, and 100% that one of these 2 numbers will be seen, last Friday I predicted the high and the low of the day and I made a killer, high was 1.9777 and low was 1.9699, and I was short @ 1.9777 targeting 1.9700

If 1.9812 is clearly broken so this means to short, and if there is a clear break on 1.9878 so this means to long, if none is broken so I'll do what I mentioned above
  • #13,622
  • May 24, 2007 6:19pm May 24, 2007 6:19pm
Quoting pino2
If 1.9812 is clearly broken so this means to short, and if there is a clear break on 1.9878 so this means to long, if none is broken so I'll do what I mentioned above
dammit. i was going to long @ 9812. am i wrong?
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #13,623
  • May 24, 2007 6:20pm May 24, 2007 6:20pm
Quoting Pipsta
When someone is mocking what others care about the mud has already been slung....

Using a resource and spoiling it, coming into a place and disrespecting rules, guidelines and disrespect the beliefs/ways of the people there, creating a hostile environment then characterizing people who don't agree with how you treat them and the common space as they are somehow attempting to censor yet not want to hear a differing opinion or martyring yourself because of 'freedom'....sounds spot on to me....

If you assume I'm a jealous non-American by what I wrote you'd be wrong, although that assumption does give some insight about you.
Well if you had some insight about me, you would realize I am just like you, in that if I talked about your country (whichever that is) you would defend it as well. You might do better to critique wherever it is you live than the USA. As they say "people who live in glass houses shouldn't throw stones". In-other-words every country has its good and bad points.

But there is no shortage of people who don't live in American that are so willing to give their opinion of this country. And just like the markets, we all have opinions.

I don't agree with the mess in Iraq. We should have left Saddam in charge brutalizing the country because in the end it will stay a mess and people like you will blame us. There are probably French and Germans that blame us for WW1 and WW2.

But as I said earlier, what does this have to do with Forex??

Thats why regardless of your response I won't post any more politics in the Cable Update thread.
  • #13,624
  • May 24, 2007 7:34pm May 24, 2007 7:34pm
GBPUSD failed to scale beyong 1.9900. Seems like its either 1.9900 and up or fall down sharply from now.

Wait for UK GDP. If thats bad, its a freefall.

Remember, GBPUSD climbed up because of the BOE Hawkishness and not to some USD badness. So if the GDP is a disappointment, bulls can kiss their long goodbye.
  • #13,625
  • May 24, 2007 10:55pm May 24, 2007 10:55pm
Quoting gobigo12
2.00 is coming first.
U preach too much.

Do this for me, give me a bear wave target, by mixing your waves in the opposite directions.

Give me the 2 targets, the long (2.00) and the short. And then say "it could be either of these".. At least you have a bigger chance of being right, and you do not preach. Preaching belongs in church, and this is definently not a church....
  • #13,626
  • May 24, 2007 11:04pm May 24, 2007 11:04pm
Quoting Takisd
U preach too much.

Do this for me, give me a bear wave target, by mixing your waves in the opposite directions.

Give me the 2 targets, the long (2.00) and the short. And then say "it could be either of these".. At least you have a bigger chance of being right, and you do not preach. Preaching belongs in church, and this is definently not a church....
Yeah you notice that. Not many say "I think.... or I believe... or this might..." I glad to see so many are so certain. But they all can't be right.
  • #13,627
  • May 24, 2007 11:22pm May 24, 2007 11:22pm
Dear Traders
I would like to drive your attention to very important fact about the housing problem:
Remember that in USA. THERE IS OVER SUPPLY IN THE HOUSING UNITS, compared to the other countries of the world, in USA. an average of every 2 to 3 people share one resisential unit, while in Europe evrey 3 to 4 and in Japan every 4 to 5 people share one unit. So, the current housing problem in USA is OVER SUPPLING, and with the little slowing economy in the first quarter a housing problem was created. I think, there is no major problem.

By Yaser Khattab
===========================
  • #13,628
  • May 24, 2007 11:44pm May 24, 2007 11:44pm
Quoting ndvt241
Dear Traders
I would like to drive your attention to very important fact about the housing problem:
Remember that in USA. THERE IS OVER SUPPLY IN THE HOUSING UNITS, compared to the other countries of the world, in USA. an average of every 2 to 3 people share one resisential unit, while in Europe evrey 3 to 4 and in Japan every 4 to 5 people share one unit. So, the current housing problem in USA is OVER SUPPLING, and with the little slowing economy in the first quarter a housing problem was created. I think, there is no major problem.

By Yaser Khattab
===========================

I read an article this morning that said new home sales make up only about 15% of housing sales market and so the figure may not give a true enough picture of the state of US housing.
Eish! If you don't fly with the eagles you'll scratch with the turkeys
  • #13,629
  • May 24, 2007 11:48pm May 24, 2007 11:48pm
US New Home Sales was up 16.5% but the prices went down 11%..

Overall, I think its only +3-5% improvements. Nonetheless still very positive.
  • #13,630
  • May 24, 2007 11:52pm May 24, 2007 11:52pm
Quoting ndvt241
Dear Traders
I would like to drive your attention to very important fact about the housing problem:
Remember that in USA. THERE IS OVER SUPPLY IN THE HOUSING UNITS, compared to the other countries of the world, in USA. an average of every 2 to 3 people share one resisential unit, while in Europe evrey 3 to 4 and in Japan every 4 to 5 people share one unit. So, the current housing problem in USA is OVER SUPPLING, and with the little slowing economy in the first quarter a housing problem was created. I think, there is no major problem.

By Yaser Khattab
===========================

There is a over supply only because sales slowed down. If sales had kept up then the supply was just about what the market needed.

If sales don't pick up then the supply will grow uptil they slow down the building of further new homes.

Simply suppy and demand situation. IMO it has nothing to do with how many people per unit here or anywhere else. That trend (less people per unit) had been going on for a long time.
  • #13,631
  • May 25, 2007 12:30am May 25, 2007 12:30am
Quoting africanpip
I read an article this morning that said new home sales make up only about 15% of housing sales market and so the figure may not give a true enough picture of the state of US housing.
======
NDVT ANSWERING:
I am not talking about the new home only, I am talking about the housing in general.
In USA there is about 125 millions residential units..

-------------------------------------------------
  • #13,632
  • Edited 3:24am May 25, 2007 12:47am | Edited 3:24am
Quoting SunTrader
There is a over supply only because sales slowed down. If sales had kept up then the supply was just about what the market needed.

If sales don't pick up then the supply will grow uptil they slow down the building of further new homes.

Simply suppy and demand situation. IMO it has nothing to do with how many people per unit here or anywhere else. That trend (less people per unit) had been going on for a long time.
Ndvt:

Yes, the Economy was slowing down and that effected the market little, but the builders keep building and the banks keep offering funds to the point that at present; the supply is more than the demand. there is about 125 millions residential units in USA. From where can you get a new families to accupy that number of houses! especially now, while the immigration to USA almost stopped!? And that over-supply of-course will be reflected at the existed home sales. so I think, there is a problem but not a major problem

====================================

==============================
  • #13,633
  • May 25, 2007 1:01am May 25, 2007 1:01am
Quoting BurgerKing
US New Home Sales was up 16.5% but the prices went down 11%..

Overall, I think its only +3-5% improvements. Nonetheless still very positive.
Its the biggest drop in 37 years. Why do think the market never reacted to the positive news, certainly not because of sterling and BOE minutes, that was the day before. I think they know there may be a big problem and because new home sales represents only 15% of the real picture the market didn't react to it.

Alan Hall goes on to say:

"
There are wild discrepancies in the data; according to the New York Times, "…all of the strength in sales came in one region of the country, the Northeast, which saw a surge of 43.1 percent." "Sales were down 28.1 percent in the Midwest and 25.4 percent in the West. Sales fell a smaller 3.4 percent in the South."
But according to the Wall Street Journal, "Regionally last month, new-home sales rose 3.8% in the Northeast, 8.5% in the West, and 28% in the South. Sales fell 4.0% in the Midwest." Take your pick.
Mortgages in foreclosure were up 62 percent in April. In the first three months of this year the overall economy gave its weakest performance in four years, mostly due to housing.
"Home construction is in its worst recession since 1990." (Bloomberg) Homebuilders are using incentives like no-money down financing and full basement or $15,000 options to try and move 6.5 months of unsold inventory. The National Association of Realtors lowered its 2007 construction and sales forecasts, citing tightened lending standards."
Eish! If you don't fly with the eagles you'll scratch with the turkeys
  • #13,634
  • May 25, 2007 1:08am May 25, 2007 1:08am
I agree, but I wonder why the USD is seeing so much strength the recently... GBPUSD down from 2.0, EURUSD down 200 pips in recent times, USDJPY, USDCHF, etc etc, all are seeing strength - when will common sense take over and drive the USD down again?
  • #13,635
  • May 25, 2007 1:25am May 25, 2007 1:25am
Quoting ~Shard~
I agree, but I wonder why the USD is seeing so much strength the recently... GBPUSD down from 2.0, EURUSD down 200 pips in recent times, USDJPY, USDCHF, etc etc, all are seeing strength - when will common sense take over and drive the USD down again?

I am not sure a 1.3% improvement from such high levels is seen as a strength (at this level), I would view it as bit of a correction at the moment until such time we see a clear reversal.
Eish! If you don't fly with the eagles you'll scratch with the turkeys
  • #13,636
  • May 25, 2007 1:49am May 25, 2007 1:49am
USD has changed data trend. Thus bottoming out. It isn't showing "STRENGTH" as said before, however it is showing improvement.

And at such HUGE exchange rates, it was bound to effect the market, because quite simply prices are too high, and shouldn't be this high to begin with. Should the november rubbish had not happened, the market would still be another 400-800 pips lower. However some smart alec in USA decided to rage a thin market.
  • #13,637
  • May 25, 2007 2:19am May 25, 2007 2:19am
Where is the cable going to day?
  • #13,638
  • May 25, 2007 2:46am May 25, 2007 2:46am
Quoting ashlee_17
Where is the cable going to day?
Up, Up...
Eyes For Pips!
  • #13,639
  • May 25, 2007 2:52am May 25, 2007 2:52am
Yesterday I've made another mistake ... I assumed all the forecast are correct and I left for a function ... when I came back ... the cable going slightly down due to mixed news result ... hopefully today is a better day ... up up up ...
  • #13,640
  • May 25, 2007 3:08am May 25, 2007 3:08am
Similar market behaviour to just before BOE minutes.....Will it repeat wednesday? or is it the curve ball?
Eish! If you don't fly with the eagles you'll scratch with the turkeys
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