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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #759,541
  • Jul 19, 2023 5:15am Jul 19, 2023 5:15am
After studying the daily chart, I've changed my price target to 1.26 before any major pullback. This level is the last swing low on the daily and also the monthly pivot area. This is inkeeping with my view that we are starting a long term bearish trend. 1.26 then back up to 1.2850 is my expectation. Trade with caution, going against daily chart trend is not recommended. A bullish reaction from 1.2850 would invalidate this view.
  • #759,542
  • Jul 19, 2023 5:28am Jul 19, 2023 5:28am
Above 1.2880 points at 1.35 next... Caution is required.
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Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #759,543
  • Jul 19, 2023 5:34am Jul 19, 2023 5:34am
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Quoting TheWraith
{quote} Hilarious!
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  • #759,544
  • Jul 19, 2023 5:35am Jul 19, 2023 5:35am
* The largest p/back since the leg-up from 1802 to 3142 current yrly hi was(372pips) 2679-2307, then (356pips) 2847-2991, and so far this one is the 3rd largest but smaller @ 222pips, 3142-2922.
* Any p/back off current dly lo is in shadow of the last gmt+3 4hr bearish thrust candle close.
* Dly S3 @/around 2892.

4hr below
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #759,545
  • Jul 19, 2023 5:44am Jul 19, 2023 5:44am
Quoting Yngwie
{quote} If green result for Housing Starts maybe going down more
It's one of those numbers that talks about activity and not price. A large green number could be a sign of the US economy overheating but it is indirect. Bottom line, price will go where the MM's want it to go!
  • #759,546
  • Jul 19, 2023 5:49am Jul 19, 2023 5:49am
Quoting Yngwie
{quote} If green result for Housing Starts maybe going down more
yup although there is also how the MM manipulate the market
Insane in the Brain..
  • #759,547
  • Jul 19, 2023 5:57am Jul 19, 2023 5:57am
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} Thanks for sharing your view. BTW which part is bad ?. This is how I interpret the CPI : A rare piece of good news on the UK inflation front. CPI for June eases by more than expected 8.7% y/y to 7.9% (8.2% expected). Lowest inflation rate since Mar-22. As a noob, I would like to know which part is bad ?. Please share. Thank you{image}
Quoting Fardeen1209
{quote} UK Overnight Interest swap 2 year fell below 6% at 5.78%
Quoting TheWraith
{quote} I agree and normally this is true. However, inflation in UK is so damn high BoE has no other choice but keep raising rates. CPI coming lower in US at 3% and 7.9% in UK isn't the same. Yes, they are both below expectation, however in UK it's almost 8% while in US 3%. Fed will hike once more and probably Powell should refrain from preparing markets for another increase, because at this point it's unnecessary. Powell is Powell however and will probably say they are data driven and won't exclude the possibility...
Quoting BeeTogether
{quote} bad as in lower inflation means less chances of rate rises or at least crazy hikes anyway
Quoting dantpm
{quote} The news was good for the UK and weak for the price of GU, the GU price reaction was overblown IMHO, but this is forex!
Thanks guys for contribyting into the discssion of UK CPI.

The price had a knee-jerk reaction to the lower-than-expected CPI print.
What does this mean?
Most of this has already been pointed out by experienced traders who have shared their professional views on the matter.

The first thing that came to mind for any traders after seeing the lower CPI number was Bailey, the Governor of the Bank of England.
Now that base rates have hit 5%, in two or three months, we should start to see a gradual but meaningful slowdown in inflation.

However, with core inflation at 7%, they will need to go further.
The BOE base rate could reach 5.5% if they act quickly.
I expect the BOE to raise rates by another 0.5% on August 3rd.
Yields will continue to rise in the short term until this stabilizes, and to a lesser extent in the far end of the curve.

The UK Core Inflation print is not really encouraging, and counter-trend setups may be premature.
Look for unfolding price action, and with core UK CPI not that low, this bodes well for further GBP upside after the BOE decides on the next interest rate hike.

As it stands, I agree with "TheWraith's" view that GBP is gearing up for another bull run.
This is not a trading recommendation, just my newbie view of how we look to the future of GBP/USD.

Thank you again for sharing your insights on the UK CPI print.
I appreciate your professional opinion, and I look forward to engaging with you and other interested parties in more exciting and productive discussions in the future.

Together, we can all improve our trading skills and knowledge.


Best Wishes

PAT Chiko

P/S Chart & Maybe we need rocket....
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I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #759,548
  • Jul 19, 2023 5:59am Jul 19, 2023 5:59am
By now, all buyers should shealth their swords!
It's beer time! I mean, it's bear time
  • #759,549
  • Jul 19, 2023 6:02am Jul 19, 2023 6:02am
Buy limit 2885 sound good for me

Trade safe
Cheers
my loss is your gain
  • #759,550
  • Jul 19, 2023 6:05am Jul 19, 2023 6:05am
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} {quote} {quote} {quote} {quote} Thanks guys for contribyting into the discssion of UK CPI. The price had a knee-jerk reaction to the lower-than-expected CPI print. What does this mean? Most of this has already been pointed out by experienced traders who have shared their professional views on the matter. The first thing that came to mind for any traders after seeing the lower CPI number was Bailey, the Governor of the Bank of England. Now that base rates have hit 5%, in two or three months, we should start to see a gradual but meaningful...
Nice one but please stop calling yourself a newbie
  • #759,551
  • Jul 19, 2023 6:13am Jul 19, 2023 6:13am
Quoting LitEU
{image}
Who is this? Why do some of us like to catch a falling knife?
  • #759,552
  • Jul 19, 2023 6:13am Jul 19, 2023 6:13am
risking long GU now 2911
People don't plan to lose. They lose because they don't plan.
  • #759,553
  • Jul 19, 2023 6:17am Jul 19, 2023 6:17am
Quoting Yngwie
{quote} If green result for Housing Starts maybe going down more
Exactly!
  • #759,554
  • Jul 19, 2023 6:19am Jul 19, 2023 6:19am
Dx is about to break 100 to the upside
My tp for gu is 1.29050 and for eu 1.12050
Come on!!!!!
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yes yes yes
  • #759,555
  • Jul 19, 2023 6:20am Jul 19, 2023 6:20am
Quoting Whale
{quote} Money talks bullshit walks... lot of that bullshit around here, especially when it come with hindsight
LOL.......

They will come in later stage, after all dust settle and after US open.
You can see all the position taken (without glitch and losses) will be posted to impress the unsespecting victim.
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #759,556
  • Jul 19, 2023 6:23am Jul 19, 2023 6:23am
Quoting ScalaFX
{quote} partials
closing all
People don't plan to lose. They lose because they don't plan.
  • #759,557
  • Jul 19, 2023 6:26am Jul 19, 2023 6:26am
Quoting BigNumbers
Short Gu. Tp 1.2900

Arrived! now waiting for another break below or if the level would hold.
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My telegram: https://t.me/avidforex
  • #759,558
  • Edited 3:00pm Jul 19, 2023 6:26am | Edited 3:00pm
New indicator analysis
{ virus risk deleted by staff }
Newbie trader
  • #759,559
  • Jul 19, 2023 6:36am Jul 19, 2023 6:36am
Dollah Index.

NOTE:
I use the DJIA Dollar Index, while others use DXY.
Although they are similar, I prefer the DJIA Dollar Index because I trade indices and other instruments in the US market.
It is more relevant to my trading for information and data.

For forex trading, DXY is more suitable and appropriate to gauge the strength of the US dollar.
I hope this clarifies any confusion.
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Bit more to fill up the H4 FVG. I wait for a while to see any reaction of price reaching those level before making any N3.
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #759,560
  • Jul 19, 2023 6:39am Jul 19, 2023 6:39am
Not looking for longs until 1.282
We cut the winners short and let the losers run.
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