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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #758,741
  • Jul 16, 2023 9:47am Jul 16, 2023 9:47am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} The fact that the last 70 trades are all winners is irrelevant in determining the chances of the next trade being a winner. Let's replace the 10 years of backtesting with 10 years of real data. So, the 70% win rate over 10 years gives 70% chance that the next trade is a winner. As for the STREAK of 70 wins in a row, this is highly unusual and would be cause for an investigation into what MIGHT have changed. If you system were 100% mechanical, then the two places to look for change are the market and your broker.
nice try but the real answer is.......wait for it .........50%..." the past does not equal the future"
  • #758,742
  • Jul 16, 2023 9:49am Jul 16, 2023 9:49am
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} This guy is going to be fun..., some folks you just can't help...
Focus on helping yourself. I ride with my creator He is my help and my salvation.
Trade at your own risk.
  • #758,743
  • Jul 16, 2023 9:50am Jul 16, 2023 9:50am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} And so you present a single case, which is essentially of no value when presented alone. "After the doctors told me that I have incurable cancer, I started eating 500 grams of pistachios a day without consciouslychanging anything else in my lifestyle. Two months later, my cancer was cured (in total remission)! Therefore, everybody with the cancer that I had will be cured by following what I did."
What do you mean single case?

It didn't only happen once to me and it didn't happen to me alone. There's no word single here.
  • #758,744
  • Jul 16, 2023 9:53am Jul 16, 2023 9:53am
Quoting Fx3423454
Hidden
love this guy already....you do know that I don't make the rules on this thread, the rules are made by someone else and that someone else is not me, was just trying to advise you, I don't give a fuck about your imaginary magic man in the sky so post away...
  • #758,745
  • Jul 16, 2023 10:08am Jul 16, 2023 10:08am
Quoting Fardeen1209
{quote} The outcome of one trade is always 50/50 The outcome of 400 trade defines the 'win rate' of your strategy /system /Ai. Let say out of the last 400 trades your win rate is '60%'. Meaning you win 240 and lose 160. If you looked deeper you saw that out of the 20 trades you won 12 and lose 8 (which defines the 60% win rate). Now what we dont know is how the 8th losing trades will be distributed amongst the 20 trades. Could be the first 8 in a row or the last 8 or something in between. So, that one particular trade outcome is 50%. But the outcome...
LOL. How do you think that a 50/50 outcome gets established? For coin flipping, a coin is flipped a LOT of times, the number of heads and number of tails each totaled and the ratio normalized to 100. So, if the coins are flipped 10 times, will there be 5 heads and 5 tails? Of course not. In fact, do 10000 flips and record them. Now split the list at every 10th flip to make 1000 groups of 10 flips, then calculate the ratio H/T for each group. Some of those 1000 groups will be 50/50. Now make a histogram from the 1000 groups based on the number of heads in the group. Find the number of heads for the entire 10,000 flips. How does that look compared to 5000 (50%)? How does your histogram look? Divide the number of heads found in the entire 10000 flips by 1000. Where does this number fall on the histogram?

Look at the list of H and T of your 10000 flips. Do you see 4 consecutive flips that are the same (either all H or all T)? If yes, did the probability of the next flip after those four being H change? Look for an even longer sequence like 6, 7, or 8 flips the same. Starting from the beginning of this "long" sequence, did the probability of the next flip being the same as the previous flip increase, such that after the 3rd consecutive flip being the same, you will wager more on the next flip being the same? How about after the 4th flip the same? Or the 5th flip?
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #758,746
  • Jul 16, 2023 10:12am Jul 16, 2023 10:12am
Quoting Rmg
{quote} Oh, no no more learning only to unlearn and keep it simple.
OK, then don't become offended when someone points out that you're an intellectual buffoon.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #758,747
  • Jul 16, 2023 10:13am Jul 16, 2023 10:13am
Quoting Wavegarrick
{quote} Above trade closed for 20 pips. I have just opened a buy trade , hopefully we can get a Friday afternoon push. Cheers. {image}
The Friday push was not to be, and I closed with a small loss on the above trade. I will look for a up move on Monday to enter some shorts provided that the high at 1.3142 ish is not broken. My future weekly pivot at 1.29943 ish just below 1.300 beckons as well as a cyclic down move not confirmed yet. I take it as it comes.
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For the win rate believers. You can have a 90% win rate and close with small profits but you better have your stops very tight because the market will smash your 90% win rate in seconds and close your account. I have been there.
You can have a 40% win rate as long as you let your winners run and still lose as much as you want. My worst longer term trade currently at 1280 pips profit and I have time to breathe and make a very informed decision and these decisions only come with time.
Take care.
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Trade to trade another day
  • #758,748
  • Jul 16, 2023 10:15am Jul 16, 2023 10:15am
Quoting Fx3423454
Hidden
You agreed to waive certain rights when you joined here. If you believe that such a waiver violates your constitutional rights, you are free to seek legal representation and file suit against FF.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #758,749
  • Jul 16, 2023 10:18am Jul 16, 2023 10:18am
Quoting Fx3423454
Hidden
Also, what makes you think I really care if I couldn't post on this website? It would be a bigger loss for the website than for me.
That is tasty bait for getting an immediate suspension followed by determination as to revoking membership. A wiser choice would be to delete the questionable posts if you believe the majority of your posts are of significant value.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #758,750
  • Jul 16, 2023 10:19am Jul 16, 2023 10:19am
and thats why i love cable even during the weekends we have something going on in here
  • #758,751
  • Jul 16, 2023 10:20am Jul 16, 2023 10:20am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} OK, then don't become offended when someone points out that you're an intellectual buffoon.
Look at your wordings DR Dave!!!!
why so serious? I am just no one .
on a postive roll...
  • #758,752
  • Jul 16, 2023 10:21am Jul 16, 2023 10:21am
Quoting Fx3423454
Hidden
Don't worry about this guy friend. He is a master troll and still looking for breakeven at 1.19.
Cheers.
Trade to trade another day
  • #758,753
  • Jul 16, 2023 10:21am Jul 16, 2023 10:21am
Quoting Wavegarrick
{quote} The Friday push was not to be, and I closed with a small loss on the above trade. I will look for a up move on Monday to enter some shorts provided that the high at 1.3142 ish is not broken. My future weekly pivot at 1.29943 ish just below 1.300 beckons as well as a cyclic down move not confirmed yet. I take it as it comes. {image} For the win rate believers. You can have a 90% win rate and close with small profits but you better have your stops very tight because the market will smash your 90% win rate in seconds and close your account....
Exactly... Win rate means nothing. My system has 41%-win rate and 4,727,779,328% Capital Growth. But then again, I'm a believer so...

"Oh give thanks to the Lord, for he is good, for his steadfast love endures forever!"
Trade at your own risk.
  • #758,754
  • Edited 10:45am Jul 16, 2023 10:22am | Edited 10:45am
Quoting karankeni
and thats why i love cable even during the weekends we have something going on in here
Yes doing reports today so stuck at the screen, FF helps me with the boredom and I'm getting paid while I post DOUBLE BUBBLE....
  • #758,755
  • Jul 16, 2023 10:24am Jul 16, 2023 10:24am
Quoting Fx3423454
Hidden
I am certain that you can find something more productive to occupy your time without the need for membership revocation driving it.

"Good morals do not guarantee good company."
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #758,756
  • Jul 16, 2023 10:25am Jul 16, 2023 10:25am
Quoting Fx3423454
{quote} Exactly... Win rate means nothing. My system has 41%-win rate and 4,727,779,328% Capital Growth. But then again, I'm a believer so... "Oh give thanks to the Lord, for he is good, for his steadfast love endures forever!"
...don't forget that bit in the bible where your god condones slavery...
  • #758,757
  • Jul 16, 2023 10:26am Jul 16, 2023 10:26am
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} nice try but the real answer is.......wait for it .........50%..." the past does not equal the future"
I really hope that you are posting this nonsense just to play with the ignorant rather than actually believing it as fact.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #758,758
  • Jul 16, 2023 10:39am Jul 16, 2023 10:39am
So anyone like spaghetti with meatsauce?
You have an IQ lower than 90 if you interact with this user.
  • #758,759
  • Jul 16, 2023 10:40am Jul 16, 2023 10:40am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} I really hope that you are posting this nonsense just to play with the ignorant rather than actually believing it as fact.
...of course it's fact ...win rates are only measured of what has happened not what's going to happen how hard is it for you to understand, if you bet on black 100 times and have 100 wins great I've got 100% win rate, so what's the chance of the next spin being black taking zero green out of it ....answers on a postcard please...
  • #758,760
  • Jul 16, 2023 10:50am Jul 16, 2023 10:50am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} LOL. How do you think that a 50/50 outcome gets established? For coin flipping, a coin is flipped a LOT of times, the number of heads and number of tails each totaled and the ratio normalized to 100. So, if the coins are flipped 10 times, will there be 5 heads and 5 tails? Of course not. In fact, do 10000 flips and record them. Now split the list at every 10th flip to make 1000 groups of 10 flips, then calculate the ratio H/T for each group. Some of those 1000 groups will be 50/50. Now make a histogram from the 1000 groups based on the number...
Its been a while i stopped trying to put logic in my trading.
Saw a setup, put on the trade, the market tells me when i'm right. My stop loss tells me when i'm wrong.
Doing it couple of time, end up with a net gain.
Took out some of the money, put it into some sh*tcoin, 20x the hell out of it. Me end up with money that is tax free.
For me nothing get me happier than seeing uncle sam watching me make money, and they aint getting a slice of it.
Nothing else mattered
More time in the market, does not mean you trade better!
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