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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #758,721
  • Jul 16, 2023 9:12am Jul 16, 2023 9:12am
Quoting Fardeen1209
{quote} 52% win rate strategy can make someone much more money than a '100%' win rate strategy.
Yes.
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #758,722
  • Jul 16, 2023 9:15am Jul 16, 2023 9:15am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} That comes about by requiring the "statistical probability" >50% of a specified strategy being in error, and that it is in fact only 50%.
Yep.
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #758,723
  • Jul 16, 2023 9:16am Jul 16, 2023 9:16am
Quoting trumps
{quote} Yep, I agree. But I can't get away from the maths of 50/50 chance. Something being unknown, doesn't mean 50/50 chance, unless there is no statistical probability of one outcome occurring over another. Anyway, it's midnight here with an early start, so enjoy the profits all you chatterboxes not stressed with your drawdowns.
youve back test over the last 10 years and get 70% win rate, your last 70 trades have all winners what the chances of your next trade being a winner...
  • #758,724
  • Jul 16, 2023 9:18am Jul 16, 2023 9:18am
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} Which god are you referring to as there have been over 3000...
Notice how you said, "have been"...

"I am the Lord, and there is no other, besides me there is no God;" - Isaiah 45:5

"Because they exchanged the truth about God for a lie and worshiped and served the creature rather than the Creator, who is blessed forever! Amen."
Trade at your own risk.
  • #758,725
  • Jul 16, 2023 9:18am Jul 16, 2023 9:18am
Quoting TheWraith
{quote} I am implying this happens more than not! I personally have experienced that and narrative in this case has nothing to do with it. It's objective look gained from experience. I don't think we are as complicated as we would like to think we are, mysterious or whatever. Mystery is absence of truth.
And so you present a single case, which is essentially of no value when presented alone. "After the doctors told me that I have incurable cancer, I started eating 500 grams of pistachios a day without consciouslychanging anything else in my lifestyle. Two months later, my cancer was cured (in total remission)! Therefore, everybody with the cancer that I had will be cured by following what I did."
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #758,726
  • Jul 16, 2023 9:19am Jul 16, 2023 9:19am
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} Which god are you referring to as there have been over 3000...
and counting . . .
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #758,727
  • Jul 16, 2023 9:20am Jul 16, 2023 9:20am
Quoting trumps
{quote} I'm not sure the maths of that quite works out. If the outcome of the next trade is always 50/50, then there is not edge to speak of, no matter how large the sample size. In this situation, any variation in outcome over the long term, other than 50/50, is simply due to chance.
The outcome of one trade is always 50/50
The outcome of 400 trade defines the 'win rate' of your strategy /system /Ai.
Let say out of the last 400 trades your win rate is '60%'.
Meaning you win 240 and lose 160.
If you looked deeper you saw that out of the 20 trades you won 12 and lose 8 (which defines the 60% win rate).
Now what we dont know is how the 8th losing trades will be distributed amongst the 20 trades. Could be the first 8 in a row or the last 8 or something in between.

So, that one particular trade outcome is 50%. But the outcome of 20 trades is 60% win and 40% of the time is a losing one.

This is why, winning 1 trade means nothing. (but winning '1 investment' could be life changing tho)
More time in the market, does not mean you trade better!
  • #758,728
  • Jul 16, 2023 9:21am Jul 16, 2023 9:21am
Quoting Fx3423454
{quote} Notice how you said, "have been"... "I am the Lord, and there is no other, besides me there is no God;" - Isaiah 45:5
Yes, which implies...
  • #758,729
  • Jul 16, 2023 9:22am Jul 16, 2023 9:22am
Quoting Rmg
{quote} Every system has streaks of winning and losing, no one knows how its going to unfold in real time. Its very important to not to fully empathise on next trade rather series of trades.
And casinos have no problem with making some big payouts, because they KNOW that IN THE LONG RUN, their small edge will keep them positive, no matter how many lucky streaks hit.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #758,730
  • Jul 16, 2023 9:23am Jul 16, 2023 9:23am
Quoting Fx3423454
{quote} Notice how you said, "have been"... "I am the Lord, and there is no other, besides me there is no God;" - Isaiah 45:5 "Because they exchanged the truth about God for a lie and worshiped and served the creature rather than the Creator, who is blessed forever! Amen."
Just a friendly word of warning the Mods don't like preaching on this forum so probably best to tone it down before they suspend you...please take this as friendly advice, but I could be wrong...
  • #758,731
  • Jul 16, 2023 9:26am Jul 16, 2023 9:26am
Quoting Rmg
{quote} why missing out on string theory and relativity theory lol !!!! very simple, unless you have a system that produces 100% win rate no way that you can you expect more than 50/50 on the very next trade.
Please, go study game theory and probability before you continue down this road.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #758,732
  • Jul 16, 2023 9:30am Jul 16, 2023 9:30am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} Please, go study game theory and probability before you continue down this road.
Oh, no no more learning only to unlearn and keep it simple.
on a postive roll...
  • #758,733
  • Jul 16, 2023 9:30am Jul 16, 2023 9:30am
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} don't know if English is your first language but are you saying that people with huge losses are too busy to engage in drama, so that folks here engage in drama have big wins or are well in profit ...
No. I'm saying that those engaging in drama here are not caught up in dealing with large losses and/or big floating DD. That does not address the issue of profits of the participants, which is not relevant.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #758,735
  • Jul 16, 2023 9:33am Jul 16, 2023 9:33am
Inserted Video
More time in the market, does not mean you trade better!
  • #758,736
  • Jul 16, 2023 9:37am Jul 16, 2023 9:37am
Quoting Fx3423454
Hidden
This guy is going to be fun..., some folks you just can't help...
  • #758,737
  • Jul 16, 2023 9:38am Jul 16, 2023 9:38am
Quoting fontu
what thought , usdx continued bear in strong hand and as consolidated trues was of enormous times , should continue bear uninterrupted till towards 93!! so big ups in others against usdx. gu , bull target minimum still to reach 3159 , having immediate limit 2999 for targets tl 3500+ , real bull target goes above 3748 but directly there , as year still not considering bull , but still very ok at long leg doji last yearly !! lets see , take care {image} {image} {image} {image} {image} {image}
The lines are statistically confusing, yet very detailed..
Okechukwu Jacob.C.
  • #758,738
  • Jul 16, 2023 9:38am Jul 16, 2023 9:38am
selling for next week targeting 1.28600
  • #758,739
  • Jul 16, 2023 9:39am Jul 16, 2023 9:39am
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} youve back test over the last 10 years and get 70% win rate, your last 70 trades have all winners what the chances of your next trade being a winner...
The fact that the last 70 trades are all winners is irrelevant in determining the chances of the next trade being a winner. Let's replace the 10 years of backtesting with 10 years of real data. So, the 70% win rate over 10 years gives 70% chance that the next trade is a winner.

As for the STREAK of 70 wins in a row, this is highly unusual and would be cause for an investigation into what MIGHT have changed. If you system were 100% mechanical, then the two places to look for change are the market and your broker.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
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