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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #758,701
  • Jul 16, 2023 8:44am Jul 16, 2023 8:44am
We mustn't confuse 50/50 chance with not knowing the outcome of the next trade, be it a winner or loser.

One does not have to correlate with the other.
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #758,703
  • Jul 16, 2023 8:47am Jul 16, 2023 8:47am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} No, it's due to so many people getting hammered with either big losses or now holding huge floating DD. Now they are too busy trying to figure out what to do next than to be engaging in frivolous drama here.
So is that why you have joined the drama...
  • #758,704
  • Jul 16, 2023 8:48am Jul 16, 2023 8:48am
Quoting trumps
{quote} I'm not sure the maths of that quite works out. If the outcome of the next trade is always 50/50, then there is not edge to speak of, no matter how large the sample size. In this situation, any variation in outcome over the long term, other than 50/50, is simply due to chance.
W,L,W,L,L,L,L,W,W,W,L,WL,LW,,W
on a postive roll...
  • #758,705
  • Jul 16, 2023 8:50am Jul 16, 2023 8:50am
Quoting Fx3423454
Hidden
Amen
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #758,706
  • Jul 16, 2023 8:50am Jul 16, 2023 8:50am
Quoting TheWraith
Wave, you're asking the same questions many brilliant minds have always pondered about. None of us have come close to discovering the real truth. Now, what I like to do if something just cannot be figured out is this: what are the consequences behind each view? So, you ask yourself this! What would be the consequences for society if everyone thought God doesn't exist and would be the consequences for society where everyone believes God does exist? We can start from here, because we have evidence from the past and some personal experience about this....
None of us have come close to discovering the real truth.

So, do you, or anyone, actually know what "the real truth" is? I posit that no, we do not. And if we do not know that for which we seek, then how could we possibly discover it as such? This leaves open the possibility that many have discovered "the real truth", but did not know it because it was not within our knowledge base.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #758,707
  • Jul 16, 2023 8:51am Jul 16, 2023 8:51am
Quoting Rmg
{quote} W,L,W,L,L,L,L,W,W,W,L,WL,LW,,W
??
What point are you making?
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #758,708
  • Jul 16, 2023 8:53am Jul 16, 2023 8:53am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} Why does universe rewards you after you make a good deed? You either get the same value back from another person, you either are left feeling good about yourself which is also rewarding or something else happens that helps you somehow. You are implying that either this is what always happens, or happens most of the time. This is yet another of our human traits: emphasize the positive while downplaying the negative, or emphasize the negative while downplaying the positive, depending on which supports your narrative at the moment.
I am implying this happens more than not! I personally have experienced that and narrative in this case has nothing to do with it. It's objective look gained from experience.

I don't think we are as complicated as we would like to think we are, mysterious or whatever. Mystery is absence of truth.
  • #758,709
  • Jul 16, 2023 8:55am Jul 16, 2023 8:55am
Quoting Fx3423454
Hidden
Which god are you referring to as there have been over 3000...
  • #758,710
  • Jul 16, 2023 8:55am Jul 16, 2023 8:55am
Quoting trumps
{quote} ?? What point are you making?
Every system has streaks of winning and losing, no one knows how its going to unfold in real time. Its very important to not to fully empathise on next trade rather series of trades.
on a postive roll...
  • #758,711
  • Jul 16, 2023 8:55am Jul 16, 2023 8:55am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} None of us have come close to discovering the real truth. So, do you, or anyone, actually know what "the real truth" is? I posit that no, we do not. And if we do not know that for which we seek, then how could we possibly discover it as such? This leaves open the possibility that many have discovered "the real truth", but did not know it because it was not within our knowledge base.
Yeah, this is a good argument Dave! You're right!
  • #758,712
  • Jul 16, 2023 9:00am Jul 16, 2023 9:00am
Quoting Rmg
No matter what evidence based or statistical based decisions behind a trade idea, the outcome of the next trade is 50/50 chance. So the "best guess" is the right word here.
If you accept that financial time series can be modeled reasonably well by a chaos model, then a deterministic system is operative, resulting in the outcome of the next trade being far different than 50/50.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #758,713
  • Jul 16, 2023 9:01am Jul 16, 2023 9:01am
Quoting Rmg
{quote} Every system has streaks of winning and losing, no one knows how its going to unfold in real time. Its very important to not to fully empathise on next trade rather series of trades.
Yes I understand, we never know the outcome of the next trade.
But not knowing the outcome does not make it 50/50 if you are using a strategy that has shown to produce a particular outcome on say 70% of occasions.

My argument, is that not knowing the outcome, does not necessarily mean it is a 50/50 chance. (ie. equal chance of the trade winning or losing). If that is indeed the case, then the strategy has no edge to speak of.
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #758,714
  • Jul 16, 2023 9:03am Jul 16, 2023 9:03am
Quoting trumps
{quote} ?? What point are you making?
maybe this...the sequence of distribution of wins and losses is unknown?
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
  • #758,715
  • Jul 16, 2023 9:04am Jul 16, 2023 9:04am
Quoting trumps
{quote} How do you apply a 50/50 chance to a particular outcome, if your decision is based on a strategy that has a significant statistical probability of greater than 50% of producing a certain outcome?
That comes about by requiring the "statistical probability" >50% of a specified strategy being in error, and that it is in fact only 50%.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #758,716
  • Jul 16, 2023 9:05am Jul 16, 2023 9:05am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} If you accept that financial time series can be modeled reasonably well by a chaos model, then a deterministic system is operative, resulting in the outcome of the next trade being far different than 50/50.
why missing out on string theory and relativity theory lol !!!!
very simple, unless you have a system that produces 100% win rate no way that you can you expect more than 50/50 on the very next trade.
on a postive roll...
  • #758,717
  • Jul 16, 2023 9:09am Jul 16, 2023 9:09am
Quoting trumps
{quote} Other strategies have much higher win rate than that.
52% win rate strategy can make someone much more money than a '100%' win rate strategy.
More time in the market, does not mean you trade better!
  • #758,718
  • Jul 16, 2023 9:10am Jul 16, 2023 9:10am
Quoting Coreg2004
{quote} maybe this...the sequence of distribution of wins and losses is unknown?
Yep, I agree.
But I can't get away from the maths of 50/50 chance.
Something being unknown, doesn't mean 50/50 chance, unless there is no statistical probability of one outcome occurring over another.

Anyway, it's midnight here with an early start, so enjoy the profits all you chatterboxes not stressed with your drawdowns.
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #758,719
  • Jul 16, 2023 9:10am Jul 16, 2023 9:10am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} No, it's due to so many people getting hammered with either big losses or now holding huge floating DD. Now they are too busy trying to figure out what to do next than to be engaging in frivolous drama here.
don't know if English is your first language but are you saying that people with huge losses are too busy to engage in drama, so that folks here engage in drama have big wins or are well in profit ...
  • #758,720
  • Jul 16, 2023 9:11am Jul 16, 2023 9:11am
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} So is that why you have joined the drama...
Partly. I did not get hammered and am not in any floating DD. And I have completed various other tasks, found today's drama amusing, and have some time to join.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
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