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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #758,121
  • Jul 13, 2023 4:46am Jul 13, 2023 4:46am
Quoting Pip-hunter
{quote} Look at the number of traders, that sample is waaay too small to represent the actual situation. Here the positioning of IG one of the biggest brokers out there: Again, 70% jumped the gun and shorted. Now their books are full of shorts? How do you make money in this case? Yes push prices higher, stop a bunch of people, take the cash, easy life. Ohhh look we made a new high, what a surprise... {image}

i do not even know why people even bother to look at retail sentiment , it has no use whatsoever in my opinion, LEARN TO TRADE

Especially IG as they are the most manipulative retail broker you would never want to trade with, read their terms and conditions , they make their own book.
Follow The Markets Structure - Patience and Discipline
  • #758,122
  • Jul 13, 2023 4:48am Jul 13, 2023 4:48am
EU 5 micro waves up on h15 after H1 correction, time for a partial

Gold still not broken that top @ 1963 for a long shot
Follow The Markets Structure - Patience and Discipline
  • #758,123
  • Jul 13, 2023 4:49am Jul 13, 2023 4:49am
Mini short at 1.3075

target halfpoint 1.2875
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #758,124
  • Jul 13, 2023 4:59am Jul 13, 2023 4:59am
Quoting eyefeelsix
{quote} reached, and I haven't seen any sign of reversal yet, take care sellers

thanks for listening --- 1.3125 is the maximum level for stop

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDH1.png Size: 35 KB
https://breakpullback.com
  • #758,125
  • Jul 13, 2023 4:59am Jul 13, 2023 4:59am
Quoting Headland
... 85% 30day adr reached, Y/day's hi +61.8% reached, Dly R2 reached, 156% 13wk awr reached, 84% 6mth amr reached.
True but as always on stats here comes in play that the volatility and ADR was going down for 10 month... so it is raising a bit now, so 30day adr can exceed 100%... that's the problem with stats, that's the problem with trend trading to exit etc. etc. You never know exactly when it ends. It is only indicators and you have to build your system around it.

I was short today at 1.3077 with 40% of my whole position. Closed out everything at 1.3068. Is that smart? I don't know. What I know is it is time for trend trader to make money. Better you are in the boat, no matter if you are long on GBP/USD or short on USD/JPY. You have to make your money now.
Period will end. Currently easy for trend trader. Cheers.
  • #758,126
  • Jul 13, 2023 4:59am Jul 13, 2023 4:59am
Quoting Scotteyy
{quote} Your trend direction says short? In what world is the trend short?
I remember the last time we talked i explained you about Trend-0.25 . If you please look closely again it says since 2021 that is 20.10.2021 it is a special trend
that provides 1 constant trend and 1 constant S/R level in all time frames.

I think it is clear this time.

Bella
Goddess of Thunder..
  • #758,127
  • Jul 13, 2023 5:04am Jul 13, 2023 5:04am
Quoting Bella.al
{quote} I remember the last time we talked i explained you about Trend-0.25 . If you please look closely again it says since 2021 that is 20.10.2021 it is a special trend that provides 1 constant trend and 1 constant S/R level in all time frames. I think it is clear this time. Bella
it doesnt work
thats clear
in wondering about yourself, you forgot what you came here to be part of
  • #758,128
  • Jul 13, 2023 5:07am Jul 13, 2023 5:07am
Quoting JackintheBox
{quote} True but as always on stats here comes in play that the volatility and ADR was going down for 10 month... so it is raising a bit now, so 30day adr can exceed 100%... that's the problem with stats, that's the problem with trend trading to exit etc. etc. You never know exactly when it ends. It is only indicators and you have to build your system around it. I was short today at 1.3077 with 40% of my whole position. Closed out everything at 1.3068. Is that smart? I don't know. What I know is it is time for trend trader to make money. Better...
Hi. I agree - stats can be made to say anything but if you use them/a data-set constantly and consistently in the same way then they become more reliable. Really I was commenting that the instrument may be getting 'over-extended' on an intraday, and wkly basis. @ current dly hi 103% now of 30day adr and above Y/day hi +76.4% for eg, and in that prev dly sw hi zone that runs 3060/65-90.

Re risking 40% on one trade against a strong trend, I think you probably know the answer to your question re whether that is smart thing to do over the longer term.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #758,129
  • Jul 13, 2023 5:07am Jul 13, 2023 5:07am
Quoting eyefeelsix
{quote} thanks for listening --- 1.3125 is the maximum level for stop {image}

hesitation zone at 1.3075?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenShot_20230713100712.jpeg Size: 38 KB
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #758,130
  • Jul 13, 2023 5:09am Jul 13, 2023 5:09am
Quoting voeltoez
cable wanna test 1.3070 before going down..
sell limit hit...hope this starting down..because my 1.3025 still open
  • #758,131
  • Jul 13, 2023 5:09am Jul 13, 2023 5:09am
I have to admit, that in a strong trend like that trend traders can make really bad moneymanagement and positionmanagement and still be profitable.
I thought about it yesterday: What if I go long after that "stupid" 30 pip drop from the top? What If I dare and bet on the probability of a new high? (which is quite high if you are in a trend)

Well...I would have earned at least 30 pips lol. Trend trading makes fun - if market is trending but if it reverses... you have to have gained lots of wins before to compensate the losses until you realise trend is over or even changed or you always get stopped out and have to rejoin if you are careful but that also costs money.

Now we dropped again almost 20 pips from the top... going long now? Your choice.
  • #758,132
  • Jul 13, 2023 5:15am Jul 13, 2023 5:15am
Quoting donfriday
{quote} hesitation zone at 1.3075? {image}
Major Large Quarter Point is the equal of Large Quarter Point on a smaller degree ( Square root --- SQP=LQP=MLQP )
https://breakpullback.com
  • #758,133
  • Jul 13, 2023 5:16am Jul 13, 2023 5:16am
Headland: "Re risking 40% on one trade against a strong trend, I think you probably know the answer to your question re whether that is smart thing to do over the longer term."
-Well, at least it was the daily top for now . I did not risk 40% of my account. I managed to get 40% of my short position of 100% almost on the top area - thank to stats by the way . But yes, it wasn't smart. I figure that out later that year to trend trade in such an environment, it looks like it is worth it but I need confirmation and lots of backtests. Cheers
  • #758,134
  • Jul 13, 2023 5:17am Jul 13, 2023 5:17am
Quoting Yngwie
Sold 1.3057
closed BE
Live trade ~ GBPUSD only. No chart! Follow at your own risk!
  • #758,135
  • Jul 13, 2023 5:18am Jul 13, 2023 5:18am
Quoting JackintheBox
I have to admit, that in a strong trend like that trend traders can make really bad moneymanagement and positionmanagement and still be profitable. I thought about it yesterday: What if I go long after that "stupid" 30 pip drop from the top? What If I dare and bet on the probability of a new high? (which is quite high if you are in a trend) Well...I would have earned at least 30 pips lol. Trend trading makes fun - if market is trending but if it reverses... you have to have gained lots of wins before to compensate the losses until you realise trend...
I think it becomes more difficult to rejoin a trend when you are noticing historically 'over-extended' conditions as discussed, but for some - trend is trend I guess.
--------------------------------------------------
...

1hr below
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #758,136
  • Jul 13, 2023 5:20am Jul 13, 2023 5:20am
Quoting Moty
{image}
Brother, please start using a stop loss
  • #758,137
  • Jul 13, 2023 5:20am Jul 13, 2023 5:20am
Quoting JackintheBox
I have to admit, that in a strong trend like that trend traders can make really bad moneymanagement and positionmanagement and still be profitable. I thought about it yesterday: What if I go long after that "stupid" 30 pip drop from the top? What If I dare and bet on the probability of a new high? (which is quite high if you are in a trend) Well...I would have earned at least 30 pips lol. Trend trading makes fun - if market is trending but if it reverses... you have to have gained lots of wins before to compensate the losses until you realise trend...
well I’m targeting 131 but after a decent drop to around 12980 (yesterdays support area)
Insane in the Brain..
  • #758,138
  • Jul 13, 2023 5:21am Jul 13, 2023 5:21am
Quoting JackintheBox
Headland: "Re risking 40% on one trade against a strong trend, I think you probably know the answer to your question re whether that is smart thing to do over the longer term." -Well, at least it was the daily top for now . I did not risk 40% of my account. I managed to get 40% of my short position of 100% almost on the top area - thank to stats by the way . But yes, it wasn't smart. I figure that out later that year to trend trade in such an environment, it looks like it is worth it but I need confirmation and lots of backtests....
I have a Weekly R level @ 3091
That might be a reversal point
otherwise must longs for me
in wondering about yourself, you forgot what you came here to be part of
  • #758,139
  • Jul 13, 2023 5:25am Jul 13, 2023 5:25am
If you look at the swings (up to 40 pips let's say) you can see that they are bigger than usual. That means less volume due to summer time or bigger volume than normal and the push thorugh is easier due to higher volume.
Currently we had a pullback from top of 25 pips. Normally that would be a warning sign. Currently I would sort it in as a normal pullback and not a warning sign already because the swings are just bigger currently.

Yesterday we had an even more worse retrace from top before next explosion. I think the question currently is always: Do they initiate a new high or not?
I would say it's overdone and they wait to let the buying orders flow in around 1.3000's before letting the market down again to that area and than sell some stuff off to the crowd and earn some real money.
  • #758,140
  • Jul 13, 2023 5:28am Jul 13, 2023 5:28am
Quoting EtzzyPoo
{quote} Brother, please start using a stop loss
Why is that then?...
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