Cable Update (GBPUSD)

Just doing weekend analysis now.
We've closed back below long held weekly and monthly resistance area.
Looks to me like 2530 area for next week before the bulls take charge again.
Have a great weekend

Hey Jolita,

Sorry to hear that!
Now, your post is quite good. This range looks interesting. Now, my take on this is that soon we will witness Japan intervening into the market dragging USD down of course, but due to very big gap in interest rates, Yen will continue to depreciate against other currencies after intervention is over. This will be a great opportunity to Short Yen until couple of things happen: official US recession, i.e. Fed and other CB's cutting rates and lowering the gap between interest rates, second would be BoJ finally lifting rates from negative territory. What seems to me will be the case is Core CPI getting more stubborn in the future which will result in Fed raising rates even more than originally planned (I'm talking about north of 6% here). I am following BoJ me Ueda and it doesn't seem to me that they are in any hurry. I don't expect any moves from BoJ in July nor in September. This leaves Yen in quite a bad spot and Japan can only intervene so much.

So, the plan is as following: waiting for correction (intervention), then when we get a decent signal start Shorting Yen until either we start to get the news from BoJ they are about to change policy, or intervention, or US recession. Any of things mentioned will take a while before they happen. I'm talking months..

Now, on your first chart, this last sell before price peaked in 1980s, this is the price I would definitely put TP. I think it's around 175.

One more thing can happen in the future and that is Japan pegging USD/JPY. If they mention any price (which will be higher then the current one, whatever it would be), this price is immediately your TP from whatever price you start. This is what I saw was the case with USD/CNY.

So, if everything remains the same we wait for correction and we buy until 175.

Considering Gov Ueda, he's much more easier to understand than his predecessor. If you listen carefully, he'll share his thought-process, and what I got from him is that deflationary state of mind is still anchored in Japan and until it changes, BoJ will refrain from lifting interest rates.

Look, "safest" bet you can make is to Short USD against Yen the moment the Fed starts cutting rates. Same applies to other currencies.

What a big majority of traders are waiting for is intervention of course. What big majority is going to get wrong is that they will think the high is behind us and it's only going down from there. This is wrong! This last buy after correction is going to be the most aggressive one similar to the one we witnessed when USD/JPY got to 151.9.

Watching the 1.2720 for an area of interest to see how price reacts and also 1.2750 area

best of luck

So how are people's trading going here, with using index proxies to understand the GBP and USD or are we all still just glaring at one screen chart and hoping for the best?

Peter

I am glaring at one screen looking through different tf for best op following my strategy

July has been the second strongest month for GBP/USD historically:



However, the first part of the month has been weak.

For Jolita .... Re" Yen activity ..... "Sorry for posting this in GU thread"


Oh I wouldn't worry, most people I have seen around this site wouldn't understand it properly anyway. Although if they DID try to understand it then their trading may in fact improve substantially. But hey, opinions are fact these days and "facts" are just gossip right.

Peter

And that reflects what?? What makes up the "GBP USD" ??? What carries the activity time after time? Surely not the pretty moving averages?

So that's it? A guess here and a guess there? This is the "Cable Update" yet I really never see real world details abound. Spec banter sure, but, beyond that?

So according to who is the GBPUSD's returns following? It's not Yahoo Finances' because they outsource their data pipeline.

As to the GBP and USD and Yen connection IN REAL LIFE NOT ON SOME CHART, I'm not going to bother to try and "teach people" here as that just never works. So instead I'll just patch some links here for interested persons to activate their brains and MAYBE learn something beyond "facts and figures".

1. https://www.google.com/search?q=Japa...hrome&ie=UTF-8

2. https://www.google.com/search?q=Japa...hrome&ie=UTF-8

In this one specifically, go down to "People also ask" and read through the first 2 questions. It's general information but any eager beaver who wants to learn about real things will progress forward in these streams. So you can punt about "news figures" all you want. There are real relationships at work. Understand them so YOU then understand HOW you are affected and WILL BE affected. OR, be a dumbass talking about superficials as if they actually make things happen ANYWHERE ELSE beyond these sites. Hihihihihi. The response will be interesting.

Peter

And here's some more REAL .....

1. https://www.asean.emb-japan.go.jp/files/100496234.pdf

2. https://asia.nikkei.com/Editor-s-Pic...ing-arms-envoy

3. https://www.google.com/search?q=Japa...t=gws-wiz-serp

Now go read and think and then realize some things. If you don't have a frickin' clue about what goes on around you then chasing and following a bleep on the screen can only lead to long term failure.

Now here's the funny stuff.....

people will say "BUUUUT this is a thread about the GBPUSD" ..... Ok. What fuels "THE GBPUSD" ??? Governments, companies, municipalities, private individuals, little green men. They ALL contribute. You buy smokes or a new phone, it contributes. Pay for your internet to be on this site, it contributes.

People are addicted to facts and figures but don't care what they really mean.

Think about it or you simply cannot be taken seriously online OR offline.

Have Fun L/earning.


Peter

THat is interesting...thanks for posting!!!

I agree.
Best indication of a Recession, they said it is yield curve inversion, where longer term yield curve is lower than short term yield curve: meaning down the road, money is bet on CBs will cut rate due to near term high interest rate effect will cause the econony to shrink. However, the problem comes with a lag effect.

History showed, when a yield curve inversion had occurred at least in two years time then recession had occurred.

So for two years pretty much thing can happen. And new geopolitic events might change the to be recession into a mere technical recession.

In these 2 years, before a recession could happen, UJ could already been flying above the sky and return to earth

When CB starts cutting rates, they basically admit that they have overtightened and recession is inevitable. I'm talking about situation similar to the one we have today. Fed started raising rates in March of 2022. Year and a half has already passed. Now, some economists say that it should take about year and a half for hikes to make it through the system (i.e. downturn to occur), so we are already here but due to enormous amount of stimulus for covid we will witness recession in US somewhat later, probably at the end of this year or in the beginning of 2024.

Considering USD/JPY, I think it is great opportunity to Short Yen for the time being (after correction). You also get payed overnight due to difference in interest rates.

So is this how you people learn how an economy works? By speculating on which narrative you reckon seems "better"?

So sorry to burst your little bubbles. The mere saturation point of the following - credit card "use" (not only outstanding debts) re: living beyond one's capable means, home loan capacities, equity lines of credit, defaults, foreclosures, "employment retraining", disability retention rates, small business bankruptcies ...... in real time and current trends, shows we have been in a recessive state since 2001-2002. I LOVE IT when normal people show what they don't know and understand so then, they can learn something. While you parade around these sites talking yack about these things, again, real life is present to show you have no idea what the hell you're talking about. Inversion curves have nothing to do with recessions, nor do negative Yen investment. Jeeez !!! How the hell have you people gotten this far ?!!

C Banks are a conduit, They do as they're told. As do Reserve banks. (So they don't "admit defeat or success" etc.) The "hint" is in the name given to both. So please go and look at real life for understanding a recession. It is called "Ease of pressure use". It's when you do not have to show stable income to acceptably process credit in your given name. So you're living in a dream world talking about the same rubbish "economists" talk about.

Think of it this way - when an interest rate goes up at the CMV level (Current Market Value), "some" people benefit while those on the other side of that situation "lose money". When you begin to see it happen more often it's called a "shake out". It's usually where the lower and middle class get pushed around til they lose money. If you don't use a Top Down and Bottom Up view, you're talking shit.

Peter

what a battle is going on here.
the good thing is that I'm a scalper and I don't really need to do fundamental analysis.

Switched to shorts after 2720 was hit after London fix on friday. Now might hold until 2650 on monday, lets see how we start the week. But if bulls continue to struggle above 2700, it might drop back towards 2400-2500 to load for a new bull run into new highs.

my trading style is a bit more advanced than this but it looks close, Study this video. Because I use swing highs and lows resting above or below the liquidity itself for my trading, so often times I don’t get to wait for Liquidity sweep before entry.

I see that it has already broken through the trend channel, above, so now it can go anywhere. Now I have no point of reference.
I'd rather find another pairs.
H1.