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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #754,101
  • Jun 25, 2023 6:19am Jun 25, 2023 6:19am
Quoting TheWraith
This week I will trade according to Dr.Dave's philosophy. We'll see soon how it'll turn out. I will look from Daily to Hourly. If Daily is in an uptrend, I will wait for H4 to also be, but when H1 starts to correlate with Daily and H4 then I will enter trade. 2% SL, 4% TP. See you soon! I didn't see Dave posting any trades, so I'll post it myself. If Dave did post trades, then I apologize. TW
I didn't see Dave posting any trades, so I'll post it myself. If Dave did post trades, then I apologize.

That subject has come up previously. I addressed it as well. As a reminder, I had a Trade Explorer open for about a year with every trade available for anyone see and scrutinize. About 330 trades in all. A TE is much more telling than posting "live trade entries", which is why hardly anyone in this thread has a TE open for public scrutiny of the trades.

And although no "live entries" are posted, these results were posted to demonstrae that this system of trend trading can produce positive gains on a day that others claim to be a crap day for trend traders.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #754,102
  • Jun 25, 2023 6:23am Jun 25, 2023 6:23am
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} This is about Prigozhin "Coup" in Russia, Wagner, Putin I am calling it now: Soon it will be confirmed that the US government took tax dollars and tried to stage a coup in Russia using the Wagner Group. (From US6.2 billion accounting error money in Pentagon) US Government is working with the CIA to stage a coup in Russia to oust Putin so that Joe Biden can campaign on toppling Putin in 2024. Just seems like this is all coordinated so Biden can take credit for ending the Ukraine-Russia war and pretend to be a hero. How you make $6.2 billion...
Soon it will be confirmed that the US government took tax dollars and tried to stage a coup in Russia using the Wagner Group.
And whether this "confirmation" is true or not true is irrelevant, because even with irrefutable evidence either way, there will be plenty of people that will staunchly maintain their belief, no matter what evidence is presented.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #754,103
  • Jun 25, 2023 6:27am Jun 25, 2023 6:27am
Posting different views every day surely will confuse the rest especially new traders.

Of course we all know the price will either go up or down...

The question is how far the price can go...and where it will stop for reversal which gives 25 pips / 50 pips as I said... or where it will stop for 100 pips to more.

The price reverses at support / resistance. IGNORING THE TREND.

At the end it is all about individual ability to find a place where the price will reverse for 25/50/100 pips.

In a 25 pips reversal , one can make 25x0.01 lot or 25x0.1 lot or 25 x 1 lot or more...

The trend stops some where... 12840, it stopped/paused bullish PA. ( when Every stalwart was predicting 1.3000 straight up )

We still do not know 12840 will be broken or when it will be broken..

At times.. the bullish PA may retrace ...in such a way to ruin the account and then move on in the bullish direction. ( If one prefers to hold on long trades for longer time )

I am seeing new traders posts here questioning experts....will the retrace stop here at 1.2684... or 1.2650 or 1.2500. If the Price goes to 1.2500.. I am sure some of the accounts will be lost.

So the best way is you do your own analysis based on your own financial needs. ( 25 pips or 50 pips or 100 pips )

A bigger war may erupt between Russia and ukraine and 1.2840 may be the end of it.

I see 1.2840 is at weekly resistance.

Take care guys.

Be on your own.
Intraday only.
  • #754,104
  • Jun 25, 2023 6:37am Jun 25, 2023 6:37am
My take on the news is slightly different.
As we have seen with the various news releases for currency matters, the markets react to the news eventually but the first or early reactions simply represent where the market wants to go. It has nothing to do with the news!
Long term, the US wants a weaker USD so that it can expand its economy to fund its military without raising tax rates. The debt ceiling increase won't achieve this goal.
  • #754,105
  • Jun 25, 2023 6:53am Jun 25, 2023 6:53am
Theres nothing wrong with expressing their opinions in trading forums. Some may be useful, some may be totally rubbish.

Personally what I find useful is healthy discussion instead of some screenshots of how much profit they make.

At the end of the day, its your money that you are trading, so you need to find your own edge.
  • #754,106
  • Jun 25, 2023 7:00am Jun 25, 2023 7:00am
For new traders :

Look at hourly chart, the 2840 was retested for a drop of 100 + pips. On 22nd june.

Why it says verified resistance ?

The price has tested this area more than once.

Look at 15 min chart, why is shows verified support ?

This area has been tested more than once.

So, decide what you want.

I was eager to to take long for 25/50 pips with stop at 2484 when 2484 was retested on friday.

But being friday, I prefered not to take. The trades what you see long trades is on a demo chart.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDM15.png Size: 17 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDH1.png Size: 18 KB
Intraday only.
  • #754,107
  • Jun 25, 2023 7:10am Jun 25, 2023 7:10am
This 4 hr view.

The price has retested this support more than once.

But the momentum at this place is lacking.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Intraday only.
  • #754,108
  • Jun 25, 2023 7:14am Jun 25, 2023 7:14am
Quoting navk
This 4 hr view. The price has retested this support more than once. But the momentum at this place is lacking. {image}
You are also retesting that 1.27 price as well.
  • #754,109
  • Jun 25, 2023 7:19am Jun 25, 2023 7:19am
Quoting dantpm
{quote} You are also retesting that 1.27 price as well.
yes, that area may have been retested more than once in 4hr TF

Even in a 5 min chart , if one observes correctly, it makes a U turn on the secong test.

Look at that chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Intraday only.
  • #754,110
  • Jun 25, 2023 7:31am Jun 25, 2023 7:31am
This is daily chart view.

Look at 2650 to 2684 area.

This area is breakout area for long previously on the 15 th june.

Expereinced traders knew trading is to be done very cautiously in this area.

Caution is needed in shorting in this area.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDDaily.png Size: 17 KB
Intraday only.
  • #754,111
  • Jun 25, 2023 7:38am Jun 25, 2023 7:38am
My conclusion :

A bit of upward momentum is needed to break 2684/2650 break out zone.

The upward momentum may be 2770 area ? One has to look at smaller TF.

Having said, the daily looks like has peaked out and weekly at resistance.
Intraday only.
  • #754,112
  • Edited 12:41pm Jun 25, 2023 7:38am | Edited 12:41pm
Quoting navk
This is daily chart view. Look at 2650 to 2684 area. This area is breakout area for long previously on the 15 th june. Expereinced traders knew trading is to be done very cautiously in this area. Caution is needed in shorting in this area. {image}
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Watch me trade Live on YouTube
  • #754,113
  • Jun 25, 2023 7:58am Jun 25, 2023 7:58am
Quoting sunnym
{quote} {file}
your ccfp shows which currency has strength and when it is crossing.

I use another tool which shows peak.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Intraday only.
  • #754,114
  • Jun 25, 2023 8:23am Jun 25, 2023 8:23am
Quoting dantpm
My take on the news is slightly different. As we have seen with the various news releases for currency matters, the markets react to the news eventually but the first or early reactions simply represent where the market wants to go. It has nothing to do with the news! Long term, the US wants a weaker USD so that it can expand its economy to fund its military without raising tax rates. The debt ceiling increase won't achieve this goal.
Fads come and go. The basics stay.
Same like the US default a month ago. Everyone screaming the fall of the giant. Titan still thriving and will last longer than any of us here will live.
More time in the market, does not mean you trade better!
  • #754,115
  • Edited 8:51am Jun 25, 2023 8:37am | Edited 8:51am
I stand 100% behind my TA. I'm taking posting on a public forum very seriously. All my TA is done on well-known and widely follow theories and patterns. Here is my last post about what I'm using to develop my analysis. https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...8#post14470588
If these methods of analyzing the market structure interest you, feel free to learn/ compare/follow/copy them. I have 12 years of history posting on FF so you can check me out and judge by yourself. Good luck with your trading.
Quoting Coreg2004
I definitely missing something. What is so significant about close below 1.2730? Can someone explain this to me? Does it mean that if GU hit AB=CD @1.2686 there is no chance for a reversal? {image}
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU 06.23 30M EOD.png Size: 42 KB
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
  • #754,116
  • Jun 25, 2023 8:54am Jun 25, 2023 8:54am
Quoting Fardeen1209
{quote} Fads come and go. The basics stay. Same like the US default a month ago. Everyone screaming the fall of the giant. Titan still thriving and will last longer than any of us here will live.
The news tends to represent the flavor of the day for the media more than anything else!
  • #754,117
  • Jun 25, 2023 8:59am Jun 25, 2023 8:59am
Quoting Coreg2004
I stand 100% behind my TA. I'm taking posting on a public forum very seriously. All my TA is done on well-known and widely follow theories and patterns. Here is my last post about what I'm using to develop my analysis. https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...8#post14470588 If these methods of analyzing the market structure interest you, feel free to learn/ compare/follow/copy them. I have 12 years of history posting on FF so you can check me out and judge by yourself. Good luck with your trading. {quote} {image}
You are also one of the first people to point out how the markets often don't react as expected!
I appreciate your charts.
I would like to ask specifically about the Thursday news spike and if that was buried in the trend analysis or considered as an anomaly that changed your perception. Since that spike would have triggered stop losses and pending orders, my thought is that there is an opportunity for the market to move higher than you have suggested. Just a thought.
  • #754,118
  • Jun 25, 2023 9:14am Jun 25, 2023 9:14am
Quoting dantpm
{quote} You are also one of the first people to point out how the markets often don't react as expected! I appreciate your charts. I would like to ask specifically about the Thursday news spike and if that was buried in the trend analysis or considered as an anomaly that changed your perception. Since that spike would have triggered stop losses and pending orders, my thought is that there is an opportunity for the market to move higher than you have suggested. Just a thought.
Hows your trading going pal. Hope all green
  • #754,119
  • Edited 9:30am Jun 25, 2023 9:19am | Edited 9:30am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} What do you do when Daily is in an uptrend but lower TF's aren't? Do you wait for H4 to start trending up before taking any trade? Or Hourly, or 15M? That is totally at the discretion of the trader: He formulates trading plans to his personal needs and requirements. So, for TraderA, he very well may choose to NEVER look below H4 as his setup TF, so he waits for the H4 to make a pullback and then buy when it returns up. Trader B may decide that he will check all of the TFs below D1 and when there is a pullback beginning on M1, monitor all...
Thank you Dave!
​​No further information is necessary.

As said, I will try and see how it goes. I'll use Daily, H4, but H1 for entry and we'll see how it goes.
  • #754,120
  • Jun 25, 2023 9:33am Jun 25, 2023 9:33am
Quoting dantpm
{quote} The news tends to represent the flavor of the day for the media more than anything else!
Agreed.
The thing i saw (i dont if i saw the correct thing, or interpret it in the right way or was watching in the correct way) is, while retail traders screaming with all their power that this gonna happen, that gonna happen, 'Who' killed 'Who' or 'Who' kill 'What'
Meanwhile, all the media is owned and controlled by the same parties:
Top of the list: Vanguard
2nd tier investment banks, we get:
Goldman sachs,
Blackrock,
Citadel,
Fidelity (the list goes on)
And these guys making billions of dollar each day while we are fighting which technical analysis is best, where price is heading next or i know the better the source of data, i come from the best hedge funds (dude, you are not them. You worked for them, onc3).

From this perspective, we can clearly see who the clown here,imho.
Because very often, one's system say buy or sell without even knowing that 'Who' kill 'What' and USD falls, while concurrently UJ was at a 1hr supply Zone(for eg) . And that dumb*ss trader just make 50pips in less than 15mins, and only then come aware that 'Who' killed 'What' after he just take profit.
Does any of this makes sense, absolutely not.
The basics from ones system stays!
Same like Vanguard or Goldman Sachs.
Thats my belief, anyone who disagree i welcome them. But ain't gonna change my belief for anyone who disagree, fr!
More time in the market, does not mean you trade better!
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