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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #753,541
  • Jun 22, 2023 1:35am Jun 22, 2023 1:35am
Quoting Robinhood1
Cable may correct when EU is around 1.090/95 Just guessing
I may have guessed right . Not bad for just a retailer. Not a bot, not a fu&King corporative scammer, not a king at this thread. Not an ass licker giving likes and getting likes. etc. Just a retailer.
POSTMASTER
  • #753,542
  • Jun 22, 2023 1:37am Jun 22, 2023 1:37am
Eel pie, serve it up Hot or cold!
U.K will rise again

Inserted Video
You have an IQ lower than 90 if you interact with this user.
  • #753,543
  • Jun 22, 2023 1:41am Jun 22, 2023 1:41am
Quoting Moty
{image}
Now follow your plan and don't get in too early this time
  • #753,544
  • Jun 22, 2023 1:45am Jun 22, 2023 1:45am
Quoting dantpm
{quote} If the rate increase is already priced into the market, why is it bullish for the pound? Shouldn't this be buy the rumor sell the news? I believe that we just have to follow the market. I was wondering if you had some rational for believing that this situation is market bullish.

  1. Gov on track to tackle inflation (could be seen as positive)
  2. Higher interest rate, good return on investment (bonds)
  3. focus wont be on the now (as you say, rates priced), it will be on indication on the future so minutes, speeches ets
  4. add in longer term dollar weakness

I don't think shorts will have a long life - btw thinking days weeks, not minutes

  • #753,545
  • Jun 22, 2023 1:48am Jun 22, 2023 1:48am
Quoting Bella.al
Ok Bears Lets do this together .. break 1.27530 .. {image}
It's happening,
average dude treading water
  • #753,546
  • Jun 22, 2023 1:50am Jun 22, 2023 1:50am
Quoting MIKKI
{quote} It's happening,
its like a vacuum.
You have an IQ lower than 90 if you interact with this user.
  • #753,547
  • Jun 22, 2023 1:51am Jun 22, 2023 1:51am
Quoting Bella.al
{quote} Ok , i am not happy with this pivot support , 1.27530... where is my hammer!

Yay, 1.27530 taken time to move my SL to Trailing , Stop moved to 1.27638 Locked +3 Pips

Bella's Blue

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Goddess of Thunder..
  • #753,548
  • Jun 22, 2023 1:54am Jun 22, 2023 1:54am
Quoting Moty
{image}
TDI Pro seems to be pretty consistent with your predictions.
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  • #753,549
  • Jun 22, 2023 1:54am Jun 22, 2023 1:54am
Quoting dantpm
{quote} It was 'stupid enough' to get France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine to sit down and negotiate the Minsk peace accord back in 2008.
This is a trading platform....elswere political talk.
average dude treading water
  • #753,550
  • Jun 22, 2023 1:55am Jun 22, 2023 1:55am
G/M, y/day's >30day adr candle a bullish bodied hammer/pinbar of sorts the p/back hi @ 85.4% of the Weds move. Right now - price challenging a prev 30min sw hi zone = prev res = pot rbs. Early london price now below the Asian lo.

1hr below
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #753,551
  • Edited 3:38am Jun 22, 2023 1:57am | Edited 3:38am
Quoting dantpm
{quote} If the rate increase is already priced into the market, why is it bullish for the pound? Shouldn't this be buy the rumor sell the news? I believe that we just have to follow the market. I was wondering if you had some rational for believing that this situation is market bullish.
It is not fully priced in.
From what i saw in previous rate hike is (for Uk)
CPI- the first price in for BOE rate
Avg earning- the 2nd price in for BOE rate.

If CPI data was > Expected(hotter);

1) Market expectation was 25bps for the MPC that followed the CPI day,
Market priced in almost 70-90% of the 25bps on the CPI release --> confirming the 25bps.

2) Market expectation was 25bps for the MPC follow the CPI day, but a large proportion of the 25bps already priced in before the CPI.
Market priced in 50bps, (a move from the 25bps for the next BOE expectation to 50bps)
Majority of market participants will now expect 50bps instead of a 25bps, as Inflation comes hotter.
This explain why a currency rise when an Inflation data comes hotter than expected.

Now, Thats only one half of the theory.
The second part, is the Effect of the Rate hike on the Economy.
GDP, Financial Crisis, Housing Crisis (mortgage rate, repayment)weigh the other half.

If the economy already had a strong GDP, it means the economy could hold couple rate hike.
That is the interest rate hike will cause no problem down the road.

If the economy is weak, that economy could not hold too much hike, as something may crack, due to the rate increase.

Now, putting both together, if;

GDP is Strong and +ve, CPI Hotter => Rate hike = Currency Appreciation.
GDP is Weak, CPI Hotter=> Rate Hike = Currency Depreciation (technical Recession may happen)


Lastly, addressing to your Question "Buy the Rumour, Sell the Fact"

If happen only when an Interest Rate hike/Cut is FULLY PRICED IN, and the Central Bank hike by Exactly the Consensus Expectation.
When a rate is Fully priced in (typically the fully priced in effect occurred from 70% to 90% of market priced in) and the CB delivered exactly as the market expectation, Retail Traders will buy on the Rate hike, Since by Theory an Increase in Interest Rate means Currency Appreciation.

However, why the currency falls when the Central Bank deliver the Hike by 25bps that was in FF expectation for 1 1/2 month?
Because the Banks already buy the effect on the Rate hike on CPI and all those who bought the currency between the CPI day and Rate day, they are already in profits.
They need LQ to get out, that why they Sell their LONGS to Retails while they are buying in hope the pair will boom on the rate day Hike.

If the CB hike by more than the market expectation, only then we get a currency appreciation on the Rate day (and that the only risk we have in Rate day, is CB deliver a hawkish surprise).


P/S:
Always tried to write this thing down, but never had the chance. Today, i wrote everything I learnt and understood from Financial Juice and the market reaction itself

Gonna save this
More time in the market, does not mean you trade better!
  • #753,552
  • Jun 22, 2023 2:00am Jun 22, 2023 2:00am
that mysterio scammer has been hiding and not on the forum from the day I called him out ,as we can see he has been on forex factory since 2009 and he is still trading demo funds ,so if a person is trading demo funds for 14 years and still not able to trade live funds will try to scam people ,
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  • #753,553
  • Jun 22, 2023 2:02am Jun 22, 2023 2:02am
Quoting Fardeen1209
{quote} It is not fully priced in. From what i saw in previous rate hike is (for Uk) CPI- the first price in for BOE rate Avg earning- the 2nd price in for BOE rate. If CPI data was > Expected(hotter); 1) Market expectation was 25bps for the MPC that followed the CPI day, Market priced in almost 70-90% of the 25bps, on the CPI release confirming the 25bps. 2) Market expectation was 25bps for the MPC follow the CPI day, but a large proportion of the 25bps already priced in before the CPI. Market priced in 50bps, (a move from the 25bps next BOE expectation...
You might want to add one more variable to your analysis, the potential impact and condition of the overleveraged (?) housing market.
  • #753,554
  • Jun 22, 2023 2:03am Jun 22, 2023 2:03am
Short
My telegram: https://t.me/avidforex
  • #753,555
  • Jun 22, 2023 2:05am Jun 22, 2023 2:05am
Quoting BigNumbers
Short
I See a 2715 as a bounce back up any takers??
average dude treading water
  • #753,556
  • Jun 22, 2023 2:08am Jun 22, 2023 2:08am
Quoting dantpm
{quote} You might want to add one more variable to your analysis, the potential impact and condition of the overleveraged (?) housing market.
That is something yet to be discovered.
So far I have the GDP and Financial Crisis.
The Housing Effect not yet happen, probably will happen in the future, then will discover this new area.
But i think the interest rate will have impact on the mortgage rate.

From what i understood, is the winner is those who locked himself into a contract (before Rate Hike Cycle)at a lower mortgage rate.
Loser is the one who locked himself into a high mortgage rate for the next 30years repayment.

I could be wrong as i am not sure.
More time in the market, does not mean you trade better!
  • #753,557
  • Jun 22, 2023 2:12am Jun 22, 2023 2:12am
...y/day's dly candle at least implies more upside to come (at some point?) Today is of course the Boe Mpc rate announce day so anything can happen. On the dly though it looks like the pullback off 2847 current yrly hi may be done? Time will tell, assume nothing, let price be your guide.

Dly below
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #753,558
  • Jun 22, 2023 2:15am Jun 22, 2023 2:15am
Quoting Fardeen1209
{quote} That is something yet to be discovered. So far I have the GDP and Financial Crisis. The Housing Effect not yet happen, probably will happen in the future, then will discover this new area. But i think the interest rate will have impact on the mortgage rate. From what i understood, is the winner is those who locked himself into a contract (before Rate Hike Cycle)at a lower mortgage rate. Loser is the one who locked himself into a high mortgage rate for the next 30years repayment. I could be wrong as i am not sure.
Pretty sure most 30 year mortgages don't have rates locked in for the entire 30 years, at best they have 5 year rate reviews. I have been exposed to several who are experiencing hardship with rate increases from banks at renewal or review points.
  • #753,559
  • Jun 22, 2023 2:18am Jun 22, 2023 2:18am
Read this and be ready -
https://twitter.com/thepoundlive/sta...KqXbqJ2og&s=19
  • #753,560
  • Jun 22, 2023 2:23am Jun 22, 2023 2:23am
Quoting dantpm
{quote} Pretty sure most 30 year mortgages don't have rates locked in for the entire 30 years, at best they have 5 year rate reviews. I have been exposed to several who are experiencing hardship with rate increases from banks at renewal or review points.
You meant every 5-6years, the bank will re adjust the interest rate on the contract according to the prevailing market rate?
IDK how mortgage exactly work.
More time in the market, does not mean you trade better!
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